Nick Parr
@nickparr.bsky.social
Demographer. Former Professor at
Macquarie University, Sydney. Interested in population trends, population issues, births, deaths and migration, population maths and statistics.
Macquarie University, Sydney. Interested in population trends, population issues, births, deaths and migration, population maths and statistics.
Pinned
Nick Parr
@nickparr.bsky.social
· Oct 16
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration...
genus.springeropen.com
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Reposted by Nick Parr
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration...
genus.springeropen.com
October 16, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Obituary for my long-time former demographer colleague Professor Farhat Yusuf.
Farhat Yusuf (1940-2025) iussp.org/en/farhat-yu...
Farhat Yusuf (1940-2025) iussp.org/en/farhat-yu...
Farhat Yusuf (1940-2025) | International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
iussp.org
November 11, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Obituary for my long-time former demographer colleague Professor Farhat Yusuf.
Farhat Yusuf (1940-2025) iussp.org/en/farhat-yu...
Farhat Yusuf (1940-2025) iussp.org/en/farhat-yu...
A way of gaining perspective on the (lack of) imminence of population decrease is to find TFR that solves demographic balance =0 and compare this to actual
TFR.
Values of “IPRTFR” for 2019 ranged from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria.
My new paper.
genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
TFR.
Values of “IPRTFR” for 2019 ranged from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria.
My new paper.
genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration...
genus.springeropen.com
October 24, 2025 at 11:30 PM
A way of gaining perspective on the (lack of) imminence of population decrease is to find TFR that solves demographic balance =0 and compare this to actual
TFR.
Values of “IPRTFR” for 2019 ranged from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria.
My new paper.
genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
TFR.
Values of “IPRTFR” for 2019 ranged from 0.26 for Sweden to 2.83 for Bulgaria.
My new paper.
genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Reposted by Nick Parr
Reposted by Nick Parr
🆕 Fresh in GENUS: A novel look at how migration changes what “replacement fertility” really means for European populations - by @nickparr.bsky.social.
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
October 16, 2025 at 8:44 AM
🆕 Fresh in GENUS: A novel look at how migration changes what “replacement fertility” really means for European populations - by @nickparr.bsky.social.
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries - Genus
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the below replacement level for a population without migration throughout Europe. The population growth implications of low fertility combined with non-zero migration...
genus.springeropen.com
October 16, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Total fertility rates with immediate and very long run zero population growth implications for European countries
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
My new paper (last?) aims to enhance understanding of the relationships between TFR, immigration, emigration and zero population growth genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Completely bewildered by citation of my paper to back up text about a topic I have never written about.
a man with long hair and a beard holds a glass of milk
ALT: a man with long hair and a beard holds a glass of milk
media.tenor.com
July 23, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Completely bewildered by citation of my paper to back up text about a topic I have never written about.
Reposted by Nick Parr
Survival inequalities expand in DK by socioeconomic group. New paper by @cosmostrozza.bsky.social, @svigezzi.bsky.social, @juliacalla.bsky.social, @sandrsalek.bsky.social, @ikashnitsky.phd, find that almost 1/4 poor men vs 1/20 rich men die pre-retirement.
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Socioeconomic inequalities in survival to retirement age in Denmark: a register-based analysis - Genus
Around the world, people are increasingly living to older ages. This challenges the sustainability of the pension systems. In Denmark, statutory retirement age increases gradually to account for chang...
genus.springeropen.com
July 16, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Survival inequalities expand in DK by socioeconomic group. New paper by @cosmostrozza.bsky.social, @svigezzi.bsky.social, @juliacalla.bsky.social, @sandrsalek.bsky.social, @ikashnitsky.phd, find that almost 1/4 poor men vs 1/20 rich men die pre-retirement.
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
Plans to replace 2031 census in England and Wales set to be abandoned after backlash
Pleased to read this
Pleased to read this
June 19, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Plans to replace 2031 census in England and Wales set to be abandoned after backlash
Pleased to read this
Pleased to read this
Reposted by Nick Parr
👉 Check our new publication - by Li, Cheng, Liu & @emitanaka.org:
"Analysis of international life expectancies with manifold learning and neural networks"
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
"Analysis of international life expectancies with manifold learning and neural networks"
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
May 7, 2025 at 9:03 AM
👉 Check our new publication - by Li, Cheng, Liu & @emitanaka.org:
"Analysis of international life expectancies with manifold learning and neural networks"
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
"Analysis of international life expectancies with manifold learning and neural networks"
🔗 genus.springeropen.com/articles/10....
www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
This article might interest those looking to link results
of Australia’s upcoming election to electorate demography.
This article might interest those looking to link results
of Australia’s upcoming election to electorate demography.
The 150 ways Australia’s electorates are wildly different
Australia’s 150 federal electorates will be in the spotlight on Saturday. Here’s how they vary.
www.smh.com.au
April 30, 2025 at 9:45 AM
www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...
This article might interest those looking to link results
of Australia’s upcoming election to electorate demography.
This article might interest those looking to link results
of Australia’s upcoming election to electorate demography.
Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters
theconversation.com/global-popul...
Important discussion of threats to the compilation of accurate population data
and the importance
of having such data.
theconversation.com/global-popul...
Important discussion of threats to the compilation of accurate population data
and the importance
of having such data.
Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters
When certain groups of people are systematically undercounted, they become invisible to policymakers.
theconversation.com
March 27, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Global population data is in crisis – here’s why that matters
theconversation.com/global-popul...
Important discussion of threats to the compilation of accurate population data
and the importance
of having such data.
theconversation.com/global-popul...
Important discussion of threats to the compilation of accurate population data
and the importance
of having such data.
I provided some comments for this article on projected population
spatial distribution for Australia www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...
spatial distribution for Australia www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...
Why Sydney will keep its place as Australia’s biggest city
Predictions that Melbourne’s population would soon overtake Sydney’s were premature.
www.smh.com.au
February 4, 2025 at 2:46 AM
I provided some comments for this article on projected population
spatial distribution for Australia www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...
spatial distribution for Australia www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...
Reposted by Nick Parr
The day I realised this is exactly how university rankings work was not a day which helped in my fight against cynicism
Happy "ask your mates at other universities to say something nice about your own university and vice versa in order to prop up the giant farce that is the completely unnecessary but highly profitable university "rankings" industry"-day, for all the simps that celebrate it.
January 19, 2025 at 11:22 AM
The day I realised this is exactly how university rankings work was not a day which helped in my fight against cynicism
A quokka and Rottnest Island beach yesterday.
January 16, 2025 at 9:52 AM
A quokka and Rottnest Island beach yesterday.
Reposted by Nick Parr
Low fertility may lower conflict potential in the longer term www.businessinsider.com/asia-countri...
Plummeting fertility rates are making Asian countries worry about running out of soldiers
Declining fertility rates in South Korea, Japan, and China are making the countries think hard about how best to maintain their militaries.
www.businessinsider.com
December 16, 2024 at 6:16 AM
Low fertility may lower conflict potential in the longer term www.businessinsider.com/asia-countri...
Components of population growth for Australia.
The population grew by 2.1% in the year to 30 June 2024
The population grew by 2.1% in the year to 30 June 2024
December 12, 2024 at 6:29 AM
Components of population growth for Australia.
The population grew by 2.1% in the year to 30 June 2024
The population grew by 2.1% in the year to 30 June 2024
Reposted by Nick Parr
December 5, 2024 at 1:15 AM
Reposted by Nick Parr
Campop blog #25: In today's blog Leigh Shaw-Taylor uses local case studies to illustrate the surprising complexity of English occupational structure in the early 18th century, before the industrial revolution
@camunicampop.bsky.social
www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/2024/12...
@camunicampop.bsky.social
www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/2024/12...
The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, CambridgeWas the economy backward before the Industrial Revolution? « Top of the Campops: 60 things you didn't know about famil...
www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk
December 5, 2024 at 9:25 AM
Campop blog #25: In today's blog Leigh Shaw-Taylor uses local case studies to illustrate the surprising complexity of English occupational structure in the early 18th century, before the industrial revolution
@camunicampop.bsky.social
www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/2024/12...
@camunicampop.bsky.social
www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/2024/12...
Which TFRs would prevent population decrease in 2024 if
deaths and net migration
are as per 2024 US census bureau estimates?
China 1.27 (vs 1.23 for 2024)
Japan 2.27 (vs 1.40)
South Korea 0.81 (vs 0.68)
Italy 1.40 (vs 1.26)
deaths and net migration
are as per 2024 US census bureau estimates?
China 1.27 (vs 1.23 for 2024)
Japan 2.27 (vs 1.40)
South Korea 0.81 (vs 0.68)
Italy 1.40 (vs 1.26)
December 4, 2024 at 8:11 AM
Which TFRs would prevent population decrease in 2024 if
deaths and net migration
are as per 2024 US census bureau estimates?
China 1.27 (vs 1.23 for 2024)
Japan 2.27 (vs 1.40)
South Korea 0.81 (vs 0.68)
Italy 1.40 (vs 1.26)
deaths and net migration
are as per 2024 US census bureau estimates?
China 1.27 (vs 1.23 for 2024)
Japan 2.27 (vs 1.40)
South Korea 0.81 (vs 0.68)
Italy 1.40 (vs 1.26)
www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-ins...
The population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 8.1 million in 2021 to
10.1 million in 2041, despite
a low assumed fertility rate.
The growth may be seen as the product of fertility being above the MIGRATION-ADJUSTED replacement level.
The population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 8.1 million in 2021 to
10.1 million in 2041, despite
a low assumed fertility rate.
The growth may be seen as the product of fertility being above the MIGRATION-ADJUSTED replacement level.
Population projections | Planning
Our population projections provide a strong foundation on which to base planning for the future of NSW.
www.planning.nsw.gov.au
December 2, 2024 at 4:54 AM
www.planning.nsw.gov.au/data-and-ins...
The population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 8.1 million in 2021 to
10.1 million in 2041, despite
a low assumed fertility rate.
The growth may be seen as the product of fertility being above the MIGRATION-ADJUSTED replacement level.
The population of New South Wales is projected to increase from 8.1 million in 2021 to
10.1 million in 2041, despite
a low assumed fertility rate.
The growth may be seen as the product of fertility being above the MIGRATION-ADJUSTED replacement level.
www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...
I provided comment for this
article on projected population growth for New South Wales
I provided comment for this
article on projected population growth for New South Wales
Will your suburb shrink or grow? These charts have the answer
Sydney will add about 1 million people by 2041. Here’s where they’ll end up.
www.smh.com.au
December 2, 2024 at 4:48 AM
www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...
I provided comment for this
article on projected population growth for New South Wales
I provided comment for this
article on projected population growth for New South Wales
theconversation.com/australia-in...
Recommended. A nicely balanced discussion of the low birth rate issue (panic?) in Australia by Edith Gray.
Recommended. A nicely balanced discussion of the low birth rate issue (panic?) in Australia by Edith Gray.
Australia in a baby bust? It’s not that simple – and a panic won’t help
What real issue does a low birth rate pose, and for whom?
theconversation.com
November 25, 2024 at 4:41 AM
theconversation.com/australia-in...
Recommended. A nicely balanced discussion of the low birth rate issue (panic?) in Australia by Edith Gray.
Recommended. A nicely balanced discussion of the low birth rate issue (panic?) in Australia by Edith Gray.