they will not understand the reality. they can't see the whole economy, only the bit that is the focus of the blinkered press gallery discourse' it's depressing af.

Yes, thx, it's def AKL!

The downturns always lead to people heading out of cities (inc over the ditch of course). You can see the waves of exodus (🎵 movement of jaffa people 🎵 ?) to Taupō here. It took a couple of waves and higher rents for supply to respond, but respond it did. Maybe a few AirBNBs flipped to rent? [Ends]

Here's Wellington City. Look at the 'public service is back' good times of 2019 - rents boomed as wage growth hit constrained supply. Younger lanyards splashed out on rentals with actual lounges! Then the population dropped hard, earnings/jobs growth stalled... real rents are dropping fast. [3/n]

Here's annual change in real rent, active rental bonds, and population for Auckland. Amazing what upzoning (2016) and dropping interest rates in a property ponzi economy can do to rental supply. Now, flip population growth to negative (2021 - 2023) and watch what happens to rents! Lol. [2/n]

Annual change in total tax revenue per capita is very slumpy. Hopefully Govt will work out soon that Govt spending *creates* the $ that people use to pay taxes - Govt just need to make sure that they tax those $ back from the rentiers that hoard it. I'm getting impatient. [Ends]

Worth noting that inflation + tax bracket creep meant tax revenue was held up for a while by higher individual contributions. Tax on individuals is now back to 50% of tax take - similar to 2008 levels - pre Key's switch from income to GST (image 2). [2/n]

Exactly. The ghouls centre the debate on the Govt budget because they are blinded by their obsession with shrinking the state. They genuinely believe that cutting Govt spending, transferring assets into private ownership, and setting the private sector free will solve all ills. It is bonkers.

And, everyone is heading to Australia because exports have been going well and Govt has pumped in some hefty deficit spending.

Yes, for some reason they haven't worked out that if your net earnings from the rest of the world drop, something has to give. Those Govt surpluses 2013 - 2019 were only possible because exports were doing well and Russian oil was cheap.

Here's the story of the last few years. The mortgage pain peaked in late Nov 2024 - 17 months after RBNZ finished ramping up the OCR. That's what the reckonomists call a 'long and variable lag' - it's also why it is obvious to anyone with a brain that monetary policy is very, very stupid.

yep

Over the next few months, we *should* see the most tepid of recoveries. This is simply a function of households getting money back in their pockets as mortgages get cheaper, and businesses paying less to borrow (business tax incentives will help. Until next week, then. [Ends]

Here's the weekly jobs by year. We started 2025 with high hopes of tracking 2023 jobs numbers. But, the ghouls got it wrong (again). Don't blame them - their forecasting models are based on pure fantasy. [3/n]

Low income workers have seen earnings increase below inflation for about a year now. No wonder business confidence is up, remember: desperate workers + cheap debt + blue lot in charge = happy days ahead! It doesn't matter if they're wrong of course. It's pure vibes. [2/n]

International travel, transportation, business services (tech), insurance, pension fees etc.