Musical Chairs
@musicalchairs.bsky.social
Ugly graphs, insights and outbursts. NZ.
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Musical Chairs
@musicalchairs.bsky.social
· Dec 21
Whose fault is this recession? Let's rank the villains for giggles 🧵
Boss villain is easy, ol' Shock and Orr.
RBNZ took a hero pill in 2020 and went nuts juicing the housing market. Then they took *another* pill in late 2021 and slowed the flow of credit to a trickle through 2023 and 2024. [1/n]
Boss villain is easy, ol' Shock and Orr.
RBNZ took a hero pill in 2020 and went nuts juicing the housing market. Then they took *another* pill in late 2021 and slowed the flow of credit to a trickle through 2023 and 2024. [1/n]
Wellington and Auckland economy still down the toilet - so real rents are heading south. Wellington rents probably at record lows in wage-adjusted terms - an economic downturn + Govt nibbling on the public sector will do that. Few other reckons... [🧵 1/n]
December 8, 2025 at 4:56 AM
Wellington and Auckland economy still down the toilet - so real rents are heading south. Wellington rents probably at record lows in wage-adjusted terms - an economic downturn + Govt nibbling on the public sector will do that. Few other reckons... [🧵 1/n]
Our 'twin peak recession' clearly visible in the companies data. The annual change is still very positive - and appears to have paused. This perhaps reflects a more aggressive IRD?
Note that the rolling annual data (blue) is not adjusted for the number of companies, size of economy etc.
Note that the rolling annual data (blue) is not adjusted for the number of companies, size of economy etc.
December 8, 2025 at 3:37 AM
Our 'twin peak recession' clearly visible in the companies data. The annual change is still very positive - and appears to have paused. This perhaps reflects a more aggressive IRD?
Note that the rolling annual data (blue) is not adjusted for the number of companies, size of economy etc.
Note that the rolling annual data (blue) is not adjusted for the number of companies, size of economy etc.
One of the obvious impacts of Govt not investing into a downturn is tanking taxes (= higher deficits). Countless examples across the world, but sadly most of our reckonomics commentariat are small island caveman monetarists, so, prices going up? Ug. Throw kiwis on the dole, ug, crash economy. [🧵1/n]
December 5, 2025 at 7:00 PM
One of the obvious impacts of Govt not investing into a downturn is tanking taxes (= higher deficits). Countless examples across the world, but sadly most of our reckonomics commentariat are small island caveman monetarists, so, prices going up? Ug. Throw kiwis on the dole, ug, crash economy. [🧵1/n]
It's B7 day! The day when we can work out how much interest is being added to our huuuuge stack of outstanding mortgages ($384 billion and counting). The actual avg rate dropped to 5.27% in October, meaning interest charged was about $1.7bn for the month. Yes, it's still high. Be (very) patient!
December 5, 2025 at 4:10 AM
It's B7 day! The day when we can work out how much interest is being added to our huuuuge stack of outstanding mortgages ($384 billion and counting). The actual avg rate dropped to 5.27% in October, meaning interest charged was about $1.7bn for the month. Yes, it's still high. Be (very) patient!
Weekly jobs data update. The grind back to standstill continues. It still looks like it will be February 2026 before we see annual job growth increase to, errrm, zero.
NB The 34 days series is more complete / stable than the 20 days series. [🧵1/n]
NB The 34 days series is more complete / stable than the 20 days series. [🧵1/n]
December 4, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Weekly jobs data update. The grind back to standstill continues. It still looks like it will be February 2026 before we see annual job growth increase to, errrm, zero.
NB The 34 days series is more complete / stable than the 20 days series. [🧵1/n]
NB The 34 days series is more complete / stable than the 20 days series. [🧵1/n]
I call the first graph 'the cheapening'. Imports got cheaper in real terms for decades and we celebrated our new found wealth - thanking the neoliberal lord for good old Roger D. The cheapening stalled in 2015 and in 2021 imported services (30% of imports) took off. Game is changing. We're not.
December 2, 2025 at 5:16 AM
I call the first graph 'the cheapening'. Imports got cheaper in real terms for decades and we celebrated our new found wealth - thanking the neoliberal lord for good old Roger D. The cheapening stalled in 2015 and in 2021 imported services (30% of imports) took off. Game is changing. We're not.
Latest Govt financial stats out last week. Interesting what we have invested more in over the years (hi kids). Always worth remembering that if you let inequality run riot, Govt has to tax more and more to redistribute income to people on low incomes that can't afford to eat, rent or pay the bills
December 1, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Latest Govt financial stats out last week. Interesting what we have invested more in over the years (hi kids). Always worth remembering that if you let inequality run riot, Govt has to tax more and more to redistribute income to people on low incomes that can't afford to eat, rent or pay the bills
So, police, prison guards, judges etc: Of course Govt will pay to train and pay enough kiwis to enforce the law, lock bad people up, and please the ghouls.
But... GPs, health specialists, dentists etc: We will offer interest free loans and other flacid crap to make sure people get what they need.
But... GPs, health specialists, dentists etc: We will offer interest free loans and other flacid crap to make sure people get what they need.
November 30, 2025 at 6:27 AM
So, police, prison guards, judges etc: Of course Govt will pay to train and pay enough kiwis to enforce the law, lock bad people up, and please the ghouls.
But... GPs, health specialists, dentists etc: We will offer interest free loans and other flacid crap to make sure people get what they need.
But... GPs, health specialists, dentists etc: We will offer interest free loans and other flacid crap to make sure people get what they need.
I have had and heard this debate many times. It ends with economists admitting Govts do create taxpayer dollars (sic) by spending, as do banks by lending, but they don't want politicians to get any fancy ideas about using that framing and power for the public good.
November 29, 2025 at 10:26 PM
I have had and heard this debate many times. It ends with economists admitting Govts do create taxpayer dollars (sic) by spending, as do banks by lending, but they don't want politicians to get any fancy ideas about using that framing and power for the public good.
The last sentence might sound like semantics, but it's important. Govt spending adds cash to the economy (we get richer) and Govt taxation takes it away again (we get poorer).
Govt 'borrow' by creating cash and spending it.
The more $ Govt spend, the more $ we have to pay taxes. A simple truth.
Govt 'borrow' by creating cash and spending it.
The more $ Govt spend, the more $ we have to pay taxes. A simple truth.
November 29, 2025 at 6:51 PM
The last sentence might sound like semantics, but it's important. Govt spending adds cash to the economy (we get richer) and Govt taxation takes it away again (we get poorer).
Govt 'borrow' by creating cash and spending it.
The more $ Govt spend, the more $ we have to pay taxes. A simple truth.
Govt 'borrow' by creating cash and spending it.
The more $ Govt spend, the more $ we have to pay taxes. A simple truth.
Things that Labour will say 'yes' to:
1. We need 120,000 people unemployed (at least) to stop wages going up by too much.
2. Banks can extract $8bn a year in profits, because that's the price we should pay.
3. The market will eventually deliver affordable energy / food / rent - be patient comrades.
1. We need 120,000 people unemployed (at least) to stop wages going up by too much.
2. Banks can extract $8bn a year in profits, because that's the price we should pay.
3. The market will eventually deliver affordable energy / food / rent - be patient comrades.
November 29, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Things that Labour will say 'yes' to:
1. We need 120,000 people unemployed (at least) to stop wages going up by too much.
2. Banks can extract $8bn a year in profits, because that's the price we should pay.
3. The market will eventually deliver affordable energy / food / rent - be patient comrades.
1. We need 120,000 people unemployed (at least) to stop wages going up by too much.
2. Banks can extract $8bn a year in profits, because that's the price we should pay.
3. The market will eventually deliver affordable energy / food / rent - be patient comrades.
I tell you what's irresponsible, leaving hundreds of thousands of kiwis wanting work or more work... There is loads of stuff that needs doing.
OPINION: Labour’s finance spokesperson set the tone for 2026 with a message of restraint and fiscal responsibility — while avoiding the details voters will eventually demand.
Edmonds renews Labour’s script: Discipline first, promises later
OPINION: Labour’s finance spokesperson set the tone for 2026 with a message of restraint and fiscal responsibility — while avoiding the details voters will eventually demand.
dlvr.it
November 29, 2025 at 5:53 AM
I tell you what's irresponsible, leaving hundreds of thousands of kiwis wanting work or more work... There is loads of stuff that needs doing.
Oft-ignored dataset - IRD's count of people by primary income source. Here's the annual change data - the hope is that the red bars (benefits) get back to zero growth - maybe next winter? The blue bars (work) could turn positive in early 2026 when we get a tinsy bit of job growth. [1/2]
November 28, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Oft-ignored dataset - IRD's count of people by primary income source. Here's the annual change data - the hope is that the red bars (benefits) get back to zero growth - maybe next winter? The blue bars (work) could turn positive in early 2026 when we get a tinsy bit of job growth. [1/2]
Total NZ bank deposits are up $26bn compared to a year ago and term deposits are unsurprisingly on a super go-slow as interest rates plummet. Now, errrm, which amazing wealth creators have made that extra $26bn for our spending pleasure? Step forward our two heroes... [🧵 1/n]
November 28, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Total NZ bank deposits are up $26bn compared to a year ago and term deposits are unsurprisingly on a super go-slow as interest rates plummet. Now, errrm, which amazing wealth creators have made that extra $26bn for our spending pleasure? Step forward our two heroes... [🧵 1/n]
Credit flows are positive again folks - the banks are creating more money out of thin air than they are destroying when we make repayments. Don't worry though, this is how things work - it's how we get more money in the bank in our marvellous modern economy. A few other reckons... [🧵 1/n]
November 28, 2025 at 5:25 AM
Credit flows are positive again folks - the banks are creating more money out of thin air than they are destroying when we make repayments. Don't worry though, this is how things work - it's how we get more money in the bank in our marvellous modern economy. A few other reckons... [🧵 1/n]
Spending is heading up. An inevitable consequence of giving mortgagors more disposable income. What will this mean for things that matter? (🧵 1/n)
November 27, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Spending is heading up. An inevitable consequence of giving mortgagors more disposable income. What will this mean for things that matter? (🧵 1/n)
Another Monetary Policy Statement, another 'whoopsie we over-cooked the whole job crushing thingy'. Forecast GDP still falling away (bye). What else? [1/n]
November 26, 2025 at 2:47 AM
Another Monetary Policy Statement, another 'whoopsie we over-cooked the whole job crushing thingy'. Forecast GDP still falling away (bye). What else? [1/n]
An uptick of hope in the job ads - that little blue prick below the smiley face is a cause for celebration. But, jeez it's a long slog. Few random reckons on the power of RBNZ... (🧵 1/n)
November 25, 2025 at 6:15 PM
An uptick of hope in the job ads - that little blue prick below the smiley face is a cause for celebration. But, jeez it's a long slog. Few random reckons on the power of RBNZ... (🧵 1/n)
You might have seen National propaganda on how much kiwis are saving on mortgage payments. So, quick reality check, and a little explainer...
The actual average interest rate on *all* NZ mortgages moves slowly - in large part because most of us plucky mortgagors are on fixed rate deals [🧵1/n]
The actual average interest rate on *all* NZ mortgages moves slowly - in large part because most of us plucky mortgagors are on fixed rate deals [🧵1/n]
November 23, 2025 at 6:59 AM
You might have seen National propaganda on how much kiwis are saving on mortgage payments. So, quick reality check, and a little explainer...
The actual average interest rate on *all* NZ mortgages moves slowly - in large part because most of us plucky mortgagors are on fixed rate deals [🧵1/n]
The actual average interest rate on *all* NZ mortgages moves slowly - in large part because most of us plucky mortgagors are on fixed rate deals [🧵1/n]
Wassup with asset sales? Why is a wealth tax a bit meh? Quick 🧵
Glib analogy, but life in the neoliberal economy is like monopoly. You work, earn cash, and pay for things you need as you go round the board. If you earn more than you spend, you can buy an asset - some shares, a house etc... [1/n]
Glib analogy, but life in the neoliberal economy is like monopoly. You work, earn cash, and pay for things you need as you go round the board. If you earn more than you spend, you can buy an asset - some shares, a house etc... [1/n]
November 22, 2025 at 6:18 AM
Wassup with asset sales? Why is a wealth tax a bit meh? Quick 🧵
Glib analogy, but life in the neoliberal economy is like monopoly. You work, earn cash, and pay for things you need as you go round the board. If you earn more than you spend, you can buy an asset - some shares, a house etc... [1/n]
Glib analogy, but life in the neoliberal economy is like monopoly. You work, earn cash, and pay for things you need as you go round the board. If you earn more than you spend, you can buy an asset - some shares, a house etc... [1/n]
Ah jobs, come on! We have had 18 months of negative annual job growth now. The population has grown by around 60,000 people (despite kiwis fleeing for countries that didn't opt for a deep recession). Remember we need the lines below it break above the white line (standstill). (1/2)
November 21, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Ah jobs, come on! We have had 18 months of negative annual job growth now. The population has grown by around 60,000 people (despite kiwis fleeing for countries that didn't opt for a deep recession). Remember we need the lines below it break above the white line (standstill). (1/2)
Reminder of why rents are reducing. I mean it's good that they are, but it's just because people can't afford to pay more and our population growth is slowing right down. Rents rise in lockstep with wages.
November 19, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Reminder of why rents are reducing. I mean it's good that they are, but it's just because people can't afford to pay more and our population growth is slowing right down. Rents rise in lockstep with wages.
Same tired old ghoul formula...
1. Define a problem.
2. Add some numbers and smart sounding stuff.
3. Draw the long bow on some reckons.
4. Conclude with the same old 'solutions'... deregulation, reducing universal services, sell assets to offshore investors.
1. Define a problem.
2. Add some numbers and smart sounding stuff.
3. Draw the long bow on some reckons.
4. Conclude with the same old 'solutions'... deregulation, reducing universal services, sell assets to offshore investors.
November 14, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Same tired old ghoul formula...
1. Define a problem.
2. Add some numbers and smart sounding stuff.
3. Draw the long bow on some reckons.
4. Conclude with the same old 'solutions'... deregulation, reducing universal services, sell assets to offshore investors.
1. Define a problem.
2. Add some numbers and smart sounding stuff.
3. Draw the long bow on some reckons.
4. Conclude with the same old 'solutions'... deregulation, reducing universal services, sell assets to offshore investors.
Few offcuts from hungover poking at latest benefit data.
First up, areas with above average increases in people claiming a working-age benefit from Oct 2023 to Oct 2025 (adjusted for population). Surprised by who is the the top? [🧵 1/n]
First up, areas with above average increases in people claiming a working-age benefit from Oct 2023 to Oct 2025 (adjusted for population). Surprised by who is the the top? [🧵 1/n]
November 14, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Few offcuts from hungover poking at latest benefit data.
First up, areas with above average increases in people claiming a working-age benefit from Oct 2023 to Oct 2025 (adjusted for population). Surprised by who is the the top? [🧵 1/n]
First up, areas with above average increases in people claiming a working-age benefit from Oct 2023 to Oct 2025 (adjusted for population). Surprised by who is the the top? [🧵 1/n]
It would be ironic if my glass half empty takes on the NZ economy proved to be overly optimistic. But, the latest benefits data is really bad. I expected that yellow line to continue to trend down, but, errrm, it isn't.
November 14, 2025 at 5:45 AM
It would be ironic if my glass half empty takes on the NZ economy proved to be overly optimistic. But, the latest benefits data is really bad. I expected that yellow line to continue to trend down, but, errrm, it isn't.