Manuel Saenz
@mrsaenz.bsky.social
Personal musings on the intersection of people and tech, tech and business. Retweet (is that a thing in BlueSky?) does not mean endorsement, but that is worth a thought.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Something is happening on @bsky.app. For the first time *ever*, we're seeing durable, modest, realistic growth, and it couldn't be happening at a better time. Are we about to hit escape velocity?
January 13, 2026 at 3:32 PM
Something is happening on @bsky.app. For the first time *ever*, we're seeing durable, modest, realistic growth, and it couldn't be happening at a better time. Are we about to hit escape velocity?
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Publishers expect traffic from search to fall by 43% in the next 3 years. This is one of the findings of our new report on media trends. Authored by Nic Newman, it's based on a survey of 280 media leaders.
Full report
buff.ly/Dh2JIuT
7 findings in thread
Full report
buff.ly/Dh2JIuT
7 findings in thread
January 12, 2026 at 7:55 AM
Publishers expect traffic from search to fall by 43% in the next 3 years. This is one of the findings of our new report on media trends. Authored by Nic Newman, it's based on a survey of 280 media leaders.
Full report
buff.ly/Dh2JIuT
7 findings in thread
Full report
buff.ly/Dh2JIuT
7 findings in thread
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
You either die a disruptor, or live long enough to see yourself become an incumbent
January 11, 2026 at 12:33 PM
You either die a disruptor, or live long enough to see yourself become an incumbent
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Even after two world wars and a century of upheaval, wealth in 🇩🇪 shows strong persistence. About 8% of today’s top fortunes trace back to the early 1900s: 82 of the richest families today were already among the richest in 1913, challenging the idea of a fully meritocratic elite.
January 9, 2026 at 6:08 AM
Even after two world wars and a century of upheaval, wealth in 🇩🇪 shows strong persistence. About 8% of today’s top fortunes trace back to the early 1900s: 82 of the richest families today were already among the richest in 1913, challenging the idea of a fully meritocratic elite.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
EEUU abandona 66 entidades de colaboración internacional, muchas ajenas a la ONU, incluyendo ciencia, cultura, justicia y ddhh, violencia sexual, universidades, por supuesto clima, desarrollo social y económico , etc
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Withdrawing the United States from International Organizations, Conventions, and Treaties that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United
www.whitehouse.gov
January 8, 2026 at 7:30 AM
EEUU abandona 66 entidades de colaboración internacional, muchas ajenas a la ONU, incluyendo ciencia, cultura, justicia y ddhh, violencia sexual, universidades, por supuesto clima, desarrollo social y económico , etc
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
“We will hold out hope that the current crisis will end less badly than we expect. We fear that the result of Mr. Trump’s adventurism is increased suffering for Venezuelans, rising regional instability and lasting damage for America’s interests around the world.”
Opinion | Trump’s Attack on Venezuela Is Illegal and Unwise
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 11:39 PM
“We will hold out hope that the current crisis will end less badly than we expect. We fear that the result of Mr. Trump’s adventurism is increased suffering for Venezuelans, rising regional instability and lasting damage for America’s interests around the world.”
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Interesting data (from Waymo) showing that robotaxis are significantly safer than the average human driver. This is likely because they respect traffic rules. An NYT op-ed by a neurosurgeon calls for a broader adoption as a public health measure. Thoughts? www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/o...
December 30, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Interesting data (from Waymo) showing that robotaxis are significantly safer than the average human driver. This is likely because they respect traffic rules. An NYT op-ed by a neurosurgeon calls for a broader adoption as a public health measure. Thoughts? www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/o...
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Breakthrough of the year? Renewable energy www.science.org/content/arti...
December 21, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Breakthrough of the year? Renewable energy www.science.org/content/arti...
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
German exports in machinery and autos/parts to China have declined strongly. The decline is ~0.8%-points of GDP per year relative to the peak export shares.
chart via Brad Setser
chart via Brad Setser
December 22, 2025 at 7:44 AM
German exports in machinery and autos/parts to China have declined strongly. The decline is ~0.8%-points of GDP per year relative to the peak export shares.
chart via Brad Setser
chart via Brad Setser
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Germany keeps playing chess against itself in Europe. Only reason Meloni can torpedo a deal on Russia's reserves is because Germany allows the ECB to cap Italy's yields. Europe's dysfunction starts and ends with the ECB. Time for Germany to say what's what.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-euro-b...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-euro-b...
December 18, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Germany keeps playing chess against itself in Europe. Only reason Meloni can torpedo a deal on Russia's reserves is because Germany allows the ECB to cap Italy's yields. Europe's dysfunction starts and ends with the ECB. Time for Germany to say what's what.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-euro-b...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-euro-b...
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Time has named the Architects of AI as 2025 person of the year, featuring Jensen Huang of Nvidia, $NVDA, Elon Mus of $TSLAk, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg of $META, Lisa Su, Dario Amodei, Demis Hassabis, and Fei-Fei Li.
December 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Time has named the Architects of AI as 2025 person of the year, featuring Jensen Huang of Nvidia, $NVDA, Elon Mus of $TSLAk, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg of $META, Lisa Su, Dario Amodei, Demis Hassabis, and Fei-Fei Li.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Between 1979–2019, top pay (90th pct.) climbed 53%, middle only 23%, bottom (10th pct.) even lower 7%. (Productivity per hour climbed much more at 73%.)
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
December 11, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Between 1979–2019, top pay (90th pct.) climbed 53%, middle only 23%, bottom (10th pct.) even lower 7%. (Productivity per hour climbed much more at 73%.)
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
But since 2019, fast gains at the bottom have already reversed about 1/3 of the rise in pay inequality.
A 🧵 about my book: The Wage Standard.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Bob Kagan: "We take for granted the degree of peace we’ve enjoyed over the past eight decades. We think that’s the norm. The norm is actually a lot more like what the world looked like before 1945. I don’t think people are ready for the world we’re now moving into."
Chaos Is Coming
America helped keep the (relative) peace for 80 years. Not anymore.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Bob Kagan: "We take for granted the degree of peace we’ve enjoyed over the past eight decades. We think that’s the norm. The norm is actually a lot more like what the world looked like before 1945. I don’t think people are ready for the world we’re now moving into."
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
HSBC forecasts that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030
November 27, 2025 at 5:36 PM
HSBC forecasts that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030
"...Si uno toma en serio los datos disponibles, la conclusión es tan sencilla como preocupante: España ha venido configurando, en los últimos años, un país mucho más amable para quienes ya han llegado a la jubilación que para quienes aún están intentando llegar."
No es país para jóvenes
Por Pablo García Guzmán
España envejece. Las cifras son conocidas y repetidas: en 2024, una de cada cinco personas tenía más de 65 años; en 2050 será aproximadamente una de cada tres. El gasto en p...
nadaesgratis.es
November 27, 2025 at 10:20 AM
"...Si uno toma en serio los datos disponibles, la conclusión es tan sencilla como preocupante: España ha venido configurando, en los últimos años, un país mucho más amable para quienes ya han llegado a la jubilación que para quienes aún están intentando llegar."
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Really looks like the United States is about to launch a regime change war against Venezuela with:
-No casus belli
-No authorization from Congress
-No allies or international support
-No plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela
-No preparation for any sort of stabilization or containment of the fallout
-No casus belli
-No authorization from Congress
-No allies or international support
-No plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela
-No preparation for any sort of stabilization or containment of the fallout
November 24, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Really looks like the United States is about to launch a regime change war against Venezuela with:
-No casus belli
-No authorization from Congress
-No allies or international support
-No plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela
-No preparation for any sort of stabilization or containment of the fallout
-No casus belli
-No authorization from Congress
-No allies or international support
-No plan for a post-Maduro Venezuela
-No preparation for any sort of stabilization or containment of the fallout
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
November 22, 2025 at 9:36 AM
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Bellingcat’s contact email has always been a magnet for people with fairly unusual views; paranoid delusions, sprawling conspiracies, the works. But recently, the pattern has shifted, we’re seeing more and more emails clearly written with ChatGPT.
November 19, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Bellingcat’s contact email has always been a magnet for people with fairly unusual views; paranoid delusions, sprawling conspiracies, the works. But recently, the pattern has shifted, we’re seeing more and more emails clearly written with ChatGPT.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
The UK government is determining whether Chinese-made electric buses in the UK can be remotely switched off. If someone wanted to, for some reason. There were plans to introduce them in London. The concept of technological and infrastructural sovereignty is gaining on significance.
November 9, 2025 at 6:54 PM
The UK government is determining whether Chinese-made electric buses in the UK can be remotely switched off. If someone wanted to, for some reason. There were plans to introduce them in London. The concept of technological and infrastructural sovereignty is gaining on significance.
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands
The short documentary “Rovina’s Choice” tells the story of what goes when aid goes.
newyorkermag.visitlink.me
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
"As Congress hands the executive more emergency powers, emergencies become the norm rather than the exception. Soon the executive, rather than Congress, is actually making the law — and enforcing it at the same time."
Opinion | Neil Gorsuch delivered the most withering questions in the tariffs case
The conservative Supreme Court justice was tough on Trump’s lawyers and spoke up for a fading Congress.
wapo.st
November 6, 2025 at 1:57 PM
"As Congress hands the executive more emergency powers, emergencies become the norm rather than the exception. Soon the executive, rather than Congress, is actually making the law — and enforcing it at the same time."
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @piie.com. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy.
www.piie.com/publications...
www.piie.com/publications...
September 24, 2025 at 5:34 PM
🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @piie.com. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy.
www.piie.com/publications...
www.piie.com/publications...
Reposted by Manuel Saenz
Between 1995 and 2001, 35 million workers were laid off from state-owned enterprises in China. They were pushed into creating their own companies, leading to an increase in the number, size, and quality of entrepreneurs. t.co/cPSoNwDTQc
December 9, 2024 at 5:22 AM
Between 1995 and 2001, 35 million workers were laid off from state-owned enterprises in China. They were pushed into creating their own companies, leading to an increase in the number, size, and quality of entrepreneurs. t.co/cPSoNwDTQc