Martin Modrák
@modrakm.bsky.social
Biostatistics/bioinformatics at Charles University, 2nd faculty of Medicine. Bayesian in practice, but not a fan of Bayesian epistemology. Main on fedi: https://bayes.club/@modrak_m
Blog: https://martinmodrak.cz
Blog: https://martinmodrak.cz
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Whenever I see campaigns such as this, I'm reminded of the 2021 tweet from Surrey Poilce
November 27, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Whenever I see campaigns such as this, I'm reminded of the 2021 tweet from Surrey Poilce
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Anyone have experience analysing periodicity (eg with Fourier) in data with gaps/missings (eg weekends, holidays) - this is in a health context if it helps? Looking for guides to pitfalls, etc
November 26, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Anyone have experience analysing periodicity (eg with Fourier) in data with gaps/missings (eg weekends, holidays) - this is in a health context if it helps? Looking for guides to pitfalls, etc
Reposted by Martin Modrák
circling p-values right below .05 to infer something about the invalidity of inferences (or even research misconduct) is conceptually no different from calling p-values right above the threshold marginally significant. makes no sense to deride one of these practices while upholding the other.
November 23, 2025 at 5:56 PM
circling p-values right below .05 to infer something about the invalidity of inferences (or even research misconduct) is conceptually no different from calling p-values right above the threshold marginally significant. makes no sense to deride one of these practices while upholding the other.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
The missing heritability question is now (mostly) answered
Not with a bang but with a whimper
theinfinitesimal.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:34 PM
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
Reposted by Martin Modrák
The link between the gut #microbiome and autism is not backed by science, researchers say.
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
November 13, 2025 at 4:00 PM
The link between the gut #microbiome and autism is not backed by science, researchers say.
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Remember: they used thousands of academic books too! If you’re a scholar, check for your books too. This isn’t just novelists and pop writers, it’s academic books too!
AI advocates have warned that if every author in the class action filed a claim, it would "financially ruin" the entire industry.
Authors celebrate “historic” settlement coming soon in Anthropic class action
Advocates fear such settlements will “financially ruin” the AI industry.
arstechnica.com
November 18, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Remember: they used thousands of academic books too! If you’re a scholar, check for your books too. This isn’t just novelists and pop writers, it’s academic books too!
Reposted by Martin Modrák
every author in the class action, please file the claim.
AI advocates have warned that if every author in the class action filed a claim, it would "financially ruin" the entire industry.
Authors celebrate “historic” settlement coming soon in Anthropic class action
Advocates fear such settlements will “financially ruin” the AI industry.
arstechnica.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:41 AM
every author in the class action, please file the claim.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number:
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
November 12, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number:
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
Reposted by Martin Modrák
The detectCores() apocalypse is creeping up on us 👻🐛
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
Please Avoid detectCores() in your R Packages
The detectCores() function of the parallel package is probably one of the most used functions when it comes to setting the number of parallel workers to use in R. In this blog post, I’ll try to explai...
www.jottr.org
November 5, 2025 at 11:55 PM
The detectCores() apocalypse is creeping up on us 👻🐛
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
I'm now also looking for a postdoc with strong Bayesian background and interest in developing Bayesian cross-validation theory, methods and software. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact information at users.aalto.fi/~ave/).
Others, please share
Others, please share
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
November 3, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Who did this?!
November 1, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Who did this?!
Reposted by Martin Modrák
The recording of this webinar is now available on the @nihr-rss.bsky.social YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cNz...
October 21, 2025 at 1:32 PM
The recording of this webinar is now available on the @nihr-rss.bsky.social YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cNz...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Reposted by Martin Modrák
"It is not likely that there will ever be a point of time at which all fundamental debates in all fields of science reach a nice closure. Moreover it is not even clear that pluralistic phases of sciences are confused and uncertain, and therefore inferior, to the more unified phases. >>
October 18, 2025 at 6:20 AM
"It is not likely that there will ever be a point of time at which all fundamental debates in all fields of science reach a nice closure. Moreover it is not even clear that pluralistic phases of sciences are confused and uncertain, and therefore inferior, to the more unified phases. >>
Reposted by Martin Modrák
This morning my ChatGPT quota was inexplicably exhausted.
It took a while but I pieced it together. Voice mode somehow got activated when I went to bed.
The bot then engaged in a 10 hour conversation with my snoring dog, answering questions the pup wasn’t asking and praising him for his insight.
It took a while but I pieced it together. Voice mode somehow got activated when I went to bed.
The bot then engaged in a 10 hour conversation with my snoring dog, answering questions the pup wasn’t asking and praising him for his insight.
October 18, 2025 at 9:04 AM
This morning my ChatGPT quota was inexplicably exhausted.
It took a while but I pieced it together. Voice mode somehow got activated when I went to bed.
The bot then engaged in a 10 hour conversation with my snoring dog, answering questions the pup wasn’t asking and praising him for his insight.
It took a while but I pieced it together. Voice mode somehow got activated when I went to bed.
The bot then engaged in a 10 hour conversation with my snoring dog, answering questions the pup wasn’t asking and praising him for his insight.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
This may just be the best CS paper I’ve read this year. Just read the abstract and first para of the intro! The rest of the intro is really wild too, but very very good:
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
October 14, 2025 at 1:12 PM
This may just be the best CS paper I’ve read this year. Just read the abstract and first para of the intro! The rest of the intro is really wild too, but very very good:
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
We talk about the big money and now federal interests manipulating the science reform movement, but I don't think we talk enough about the ideological moves that have been going on inside retraction watch for years. It's like FIRE
Oh good, Retraction Watch is employing professional transphobe Alice Dreger. Who doesn't love a bit of institutional capture?
October 16, 2025 at 6:22 PM
We talk about the big money and now federal interests manipulating the science reform movement, but I don't think we talk enough about the ideological moves that have been going on inside retraction watch for years. It's like FIRE
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Hey, hey guys! Guys! They reinvented the textbook! And the library!
Just amazing to see someone tell on themselves so clearly in public that they do not really know what teaching...is?
Just amazing to see someone tell on themselves so clearly in public that they do not really know what teaching...is?
Wow. Just wow.
"Students pay premium prices for information that AI now delivers instantly and for free. A business student can ask ChatGPT to explain supply chain optimization or generate market analysis in seconds. The traditional lecture-and-test model faces its Blockbuster moment."
"Students pay premium prices for information that AI now delivers instantly and for free. A business student can ask ChatGPT to explain supply chain optimization or generate market analysis in seconds. The traditional lecture-and-test model faces its Blockbuster moment."
When Knowledge is Free, What are Professors For?
Higher Education Must Stop Competing with AI on Information and Start Teaching What Machines Can’t Do
www.forbes.com
October 16, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Hey, hey guys! Guys! They reinvented the textbook! And the library!
Just amazing to see someone tell on themselves so clearly in public that they do not really know what teaching...is?
Just amazing to see someone tell on themselves so clearly in public that they do not really know what teaching...is?
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Make an effect size prediction!
@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)
Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)
Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
October 13, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Make an effect size prediction!
@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)
Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)
Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
note that in the ggplot2 the default pointsize is not a constant anymore
GeomPoint$default_aes
#> Aesthetic mapping:
#> * `shape` -> `from_theme(pointshape)`
#> * `colour` -> `from_theme(colour %||% ink)`
#> * `fill` -> `from_theme(fill %||% NA)`
#> * `size` -> `from_theme(pointsize)`
GeomPoint$default_aes
#> Aesthetic mapping:
#> * `shape` -> `from_theme(pointshape)`
#> * `colour` -> `from_theme(colour %||% ink)`
#> * `fill` -> `from_theme(fill %||% NA)`
#> * `size` -> `from_theme(pointsize)`
October 9, 2025 at 8:24 PM
If you feel so inclined, I run a Mastodon instance bayes.club and try to make it a nice place and you can join if you like. I know some people have strong opinions on this and some have had bad experience on Mastodon. And that's all fair and I won't dispute that, there's a lot of work to do.
Bayes Club
A community of statisticians using Bayesian methods.
bayes.club
October 7, 2025 at 2:43 PM
If you feel so inclined, I run a Mastodon instance bayes.club and try to make it a nice place and you can join if you like. I know some people have strong opinions on this and some have had bad experience on Mastodon. And that's all fair and I won't dispute that, there's a lot of work to do.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
ELLIS PhD Program: Call for Applications 2025
The ELLIS mission is to create a diverse European network that promotes research excellence and advances breakthroughs in AI, as well as a pan-European PhD program to educate the next generation of AI...
ellis.eu
October 6, 2025 at 9:28 AM
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
One thing I find so strange about the P-curve is how once it was published, the burden of proof shifted to others to prove that it is bad (in ways that Simonsohn would care about, at least), rather than the authors, to prove that it works in general (for standard definitions of "works"). (21/x)
September 25, 2025 at 10:07 AM
One thing I find so strange about the P-curve is how once it was published, the burden of proof shifted to others to prove that it is bad (in ways that Simonsohn would care about, at least), rather than the authors, to prove that it works in general (for standard definitions of "works"). (21/x)
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Simonsohn has now posted a blog response to our recent paper about the poor statistical properties of the P curve. @clintin.bsky.social and I are finishing up a less-technical paper that will serve as a response. But I wanted to address a meta-issue *around* this that may clarify some things. 1/x
Would p-curve work if you dropped a piano on it?
datacolada.org/129
datacolada.org/129
September 25, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Simonsohn has now posted a blog response to our recent paper about the poor statistical properties of the P curve. @clintin.bsky.social and I are finishing up a less-technical paper that will serve as a response. But I wanted to address a meta-issue *around* this that may clarify some things. 1/x
Reposted by Martin Modrák
It's officially been a year since this paper was retracted. In the wake, the authors claimed (misleadingly) it was just a couple pesky sentences... a revise and resubmit.
Since then, radio silence with not even an update to the preprint.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Since then, radio silence with not even an update to the preprint.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Retraction Note: High replicability of newly discovered social-behavioural findings is achievable - Nature Human Behaviour
Nature Human Behaviour - Retraction Note: High replicability of newly discovered social-behavioural findings is achievable
www.nature.com
September 24, 2025 at 12:28 PM
It's officially been a year since this paper was retracted. In the wake, the authors claimed (misleadingly) it was just a couple pesky sentences... a revise and resubmit.
Since then, radio silence with not even an update to the preprint.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Since then, radio silence with not even an update to the preprint.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...