András Tóth-Czifra
@minczifra.bsky.social
Political & security analyst. 🇪🇺🇭🇺🇺🇸. FPRI Eurasia fellow, Bear Market Brief contributor. Ex-CEPA, ESI. Posts about 🇷🇺, 🇪🇺, illiberalism and its limits. Posts reflect my own views.
Здесь вам не Toth.
www.noyardstick.com
minczifra.substack.com
Здесь вам не Toth.
www.noyardstick.com
minczifra.substack.com
Pinned
András Tóth-Czifra
@minczifra.bsky.social
· Feb 27
The Kremlin's Balancing Act : The War's Impact On Regional Power Dynamics - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government accelerated the preexisting trend of centralizing control over regional power and economic assets. This centralization drive h...
www.fpri.org
You can now read my latest report for @fpri.bsky.social about the war's impact on center-region power dynamics in Russia, originally written at the end of 2024, but now updated with new figures and conclusions.
www.fpri.org/article/2025...
www.fpri.org/article/2025...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Check out how the concept of Chaos was developed and how it affects Russia's understanding of international processes and Russia's role in it.
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
3/3
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
3/3
Witnesses of Chaos – Riddle Russia
Anton Barbashin on the Five Postulates of Russia’s «Chaos Theory»
ridl.io
November 24, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Check out how the concept of Chaos was developed and how it affects Russia's understanding of international processes and Russia's role in it.
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
3/3
ridl.io/witnesses-of...
3/3
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
I have been watching sumo since the late 1990s when American Pacific Islanders dominated the sport, then through the Mongolian era and of course Hakuho the GOAT.
This was one of the coolest, most exciting bashos I've ever seen. What a guy!
www.bbc.com/sport/articl...
This was one of the coolest, most exciting bashos I've ever seen. What a guy!
www.bbc.com/sport/articl...
Aonishiki: Ukraine sumo prodigy becomes champion in Japan
Aonishiki wins the November sumo tournament in Japan and becomes the first person from Ukraine to claim an elite-level sumo championship.
www.bbc.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:25 AM
I have been watching sumo since the late 1990s when American Pacific Islanders dominated the sport, then through the Mongolian era and of course Hakuho the GOAT.
This was one of the coolest, most exciting bashos I've ever seen. What a guy!
www.bbc.com/sport/articl...
This was one of the coolest, most exciting bashos I've ever seen. What a guy!
www.bbc.com/sport/articl...
I have been watching sumo since the late 1990s when American Pacific Islanders dominated the sport, then through the Mongolian era and of course Hakuho the GOAT.
This was one of the coolest, most exciting bashos I've ever seen. What a guy!
www.bbc.com/sport/articl...
This was one of the coolest, most exciting bashos I've ever seen. What a guy!
www.bbc.com/sport/articl...
Aonishiki: Ukraine sumo prodigy becomes champion in Japan
Aonishiki wins the November sumo tournament in Japan and becomes the first person from Ukraine to claim an elite-level sumo championship.
www.bbc.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:25 AM
I have been watching sumo since the late 1990s when American Pacific Islanders dominated the sport, then through the Mongolian era and of course Hakuho the GOAT.
This was one of the coolest, most exciting bashos I've ever seen. What a guy!
www.bbc.com/sport/articl...
This was one of the coolest, most exciting bashos I've ever seen. What a guy!
www.bbc.com/sport/articl...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
If the 28-point plan was a rough conversion starter from the point of view of Moscow, the EU proposal is a 100% non-starter
November 23, 2025 at 7:37 PM
If the 28-point plan was a rough conversion starter from the point of view of Moscow, the EU proposal is a 100% non-starter
Day 3 of ASEEES: one benefit of taking the train is that you can shamelessly exploit conference copy fire sales and book giveaways. The most important panels in your field are over so you can indulge yourself with Soviet science fiction and support your friends by attending their talks.
November 23, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Day 3 of ASEEES: one benefit of taking the train is that you can shamelessly exploit conference copy fire sales and book giveaways. The most important panels in your field are over so you can indulge yourself with Soviet science fiction and support your friends by attending their talks.
2nd day of ASEEES: desperation is setting in. Too many interesting panels at the same time, not to mention friends, colleagues & academic stars one wants to see.
Still, very stimulating panels on Russia's domestic war machine, measuring public opinion & historical perspectives of elite control etc
Still, very stimulating panels on Russia's domestic war machine, measuring public opinion & historical perspectives of elite control etc
November 22, 2025 at 9:41 PM
2nd day of ASEEES: desperation is setting in. Too many interesting panels at the same time, not to mention friends, colleagues & academic stars one wants to see.
Still, very stimulating panels on Russia's domestic war machine, measuring public opinion & historical perspectives of elite control etc
Still, very stimulating panels on Russia's domestic war machine, measuring public opinion & historical perspectives of elite control etc
The first day of ASEEES reminded me why I love this conference: highly interesting and important panel by PS Lab, engaging book talks (incl @benstanley.eu on Poland, a Balzer-Fisher volume on Putin), Afghanistan vets, a concert of prewar Polish underground songs in Yiddish and some Russophone poetry
November 22, 2025 at 4:18 AM
The first day of ASEEES reminded me why I love this conference: highly interesting and important panel by PS Lab, engaging book talks (incl @benstanley.eu on Poland, a Balzer-Fisher volume on Putin), Afghanistan vets, a concert of prewar Polish underground songs in Yiddish and some Russophone poetry
Somewhere in the editorial room of the NY Post heads are exploding
November 21, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Somewhere in the editorial room of the NY Post heads are exploding
It seems that if the interpretation is that Trump is intent & capable of pressuring Ukraine into this deal, the leak will put pressure on EU leaders to agree on the assets or drop the idea & look for an alternative. In spite of its usual slowness the EU is capable of this
www.ft.com/content/8922...
www.ft.com/content/8922...
Trump’s grab for Russian frozen assets puts EU Ukraine loan in doubt
Brussels blindsided by US plan for joint investment funds with Moscow and Kyiv
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:50 PM
It seems that if the interpretation is that Trump is intent & capable of pressuring Ukraine into this deal, the leak will put pressure on EU leaders to agree on the assets or drop the idea & look for an alternative. In spite of its usual slowness the EU is capable of this
www.ft.com/content/8922...
www.ft.com/content/8922...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
So who's going to be at ASEEES this week?
November 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
So who's going to be at ASEEES this week?
This obviously sounds like an even worse deal for Ukraine that has been reportedly discussed earlier. Trump's motivations - peace prize, distraction from his domestic problems - are well known and I am sure the Russian government knows that he is desperate for something he can call a victory.
The US signaled to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that Ukraine must accept a US-drafted framework to end the war with Russia that proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons, two people familiar with the matter said reut.rs/3X5jBBS
November 19, 2025 at 6:16 PM
This obviously sounds like an even worse deal for Ukraine that has been reportedly discussed earlier. Trump's motivations - peace prize, distraction from his domestic problems - are well known and I am sure the Russian government knows that he is desperate for something he can call a victory.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
1/This week has seen a blitz of what looks like corruption sandals: Saudi development deals for US military tech, Pakistani payments to Trump insiders for tariff relief, Swiss gold bars for a trade deal. Far from a payoff, this is a reordering of internat'l system.
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:59 PM
1/This week has seen a blitz of what looks like corruption sandals: Saudi development deals for US military tech, Pakistani payments to Trump insiders for tariff relief, Swiss gold bars for a trade deal. Far from a payoff, this is a reordering of internat'l system.
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
Der Standard still claims that Viktor Orban's son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz is one of the potential buyers of Raiffeisenbank's Russian assets (Tiborcz denies this).
Earlier this week the Serbian NIN reported that Hungary's MOL was interested in a 11.3% stake in NIS.
www.derstandard.at/story/300000...
Earlier this week the Serbian NIN reported that Hungary's MOL was interested in a 11.3% stake in NIS.
www.derstandard.at/story/300000...
Moskau, Washington, Budapest: Wie Österreichs Raiffeisenbank zum politischen Spielball wird
Die Raiffeisen Bank International will weiterhin ihre milliardenschwere Russland-Tochter verkaufen. Noch im Rennen ist laut Insidern Viktor Orbáns Schwiegersohn – doch es gibt auch andere Interessente...
www.derstandard.at
November 19, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Der Standard still claims that Viktor Orban's son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz is one of the potential buyers of Raiffeisenbank's Russian assets (Tiborcz denies this).
Earlier this week the Serbian NIN reported that Hungary's MOL was interested in a 11.3% stake in NIS.
www.derstandard.at/story/300000...
Earlier this week the Serbian NIN reported that Hungary's MOL was interested in a 11.3% stake in NIS.
www.derstandard.at/story/300000...
So who's going to be at ASEEES this week?
November 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
So who's going to be at ASEEES this week?
Indeed this is the stuff Mamdani could and should do within days of taking office. Not only are these good policies, they are good politics too.
I really hope he goes gung-ho on this: expand Open Streets, drastically reduce free parking, pour the proceeds into transit improvements, etc.
I really hope he goes gung-ho on this: expand Open Streets, drastically reduce free parking, pour the proceeds into transit improvements, etc.
This is the stuff Mamdani can just do, including a bunch of stuff that would make buses faster, even if not free www.thecity.nyc/2025/11/17/s...
Mamdani Election Signals Lane Change for Stymied Street Overhauls
From a flubbed Fordham Road bus lane to downshifted bike lanes, the new mayor has a chance to revive projects to improve the city’s streetscape.
www.thecity.nyc
November 18, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Indeed this is the stuff Mamdani could and should do within days of taking office. Not only are these good policies, they are good politics too.
I really hope he goes gung-ho on this: expand Open Streets, drastically reduce free parking, pour the proceeds into transit improvements, etc.
I really hope he goes gung-ho on this: expand Open Streets, drastically reduce free parking, pour the proceeds into transit improvements, etc.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Ticking time-bomb 💣
Russian companies are spending 40% of their profits paying just the interest on their debt, according to a Kremlin think tank.
Source: @themoscowtimes.com
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/17/r...
Russian companies are spending 40% of their profits paying just the interest on their debt, according to a Kremlin think tank.
Source: @themoscowtimes.com
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/17/r...
Российские компании отдают почти 40% прибыли на проценты по долгам - Русская служба The Moscow Times
www.moscowtimes.ru
November 17, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Ticking time-bomb 💣
Russian companies are spending 40% of their profits paying just the interest on their debt, according to a Kremlin think tank.
Source: @themoscowtimes.com
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/17/r...
Russian companies are spending 40% of their profits paying just the interest on their debt, according to a Kremlin think tank.
Source: @themoscowtimes.com
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/17/r...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
💥💰Hungary’s MOL oil company may buy Gazprom’s 11.3% stake in Serbia’s NIS oil firm — now under U.S. sanctions — so the Russian side (Gazprom Neft) would appear only as a minority owner (44.9%). This move could help Moscow effectively evade the Trump admin's sanctions: www.reuters.com/business/ene...
November 17, 2025 at 5:46 PM
💥💰Hungary’s MOL oil company may buy Gazprom’s 11.3% stake in Serbia’s NIS oil firm — now under U.S. sanctions — so the Russian side (Gazprom Neft) would appear only as a minority owner (44.9%). This move could help Moscow effectively evade the Trump admin's sanctions: www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
November 17, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
New on Substack: on the unending headache that is the municipal reform; why eccentric governors had a bad month and will this hurt them; and some commentary on a further assortment of regional news from the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
On the ongoing municipal reform, flamboyant governors and others
Thoughts about political developments in Russia over the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:09 AM
New on Substack: on the unending headache that is the municipal reform; why eccentric governors had a bad month and will this hurt them; and some commentary on a further assortment of regional news from the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
New on Substack: on the unending headache that is the municipal reform; why eccentric governors had a bad month and will this hurt them; and some commentary on a further assortment of regional news from the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
On the ongoing municipal reform, flamboyant governors and others
Thoughts about political developments in Russia over the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:09 AM
New on Substack: on the unending headache that is the municipal reform; why eccentric governors had a bad month and will this hurt them; and some commentary on a further assortment of regional news from the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
The position voiced Orbán's government several times over the past week has been that it's completely irrelevant what anyone other than Trump, including Rubio, says about the agreement, because Trump told them otherwise behind closed doors.
💥So it seems Viktor Orbán and his government have been lying for a week about their White House deal with Donald Trump — Marco Rubio now personally confirms Hungary only got a one-year exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas, not the “indefinite” one Orbán claimed.
November 13, 2025 at 1:22 PM
The position voiced Orbán's government several times over the past week has been that it's completely irrelevant what anyone other than Trump, including Rubio, says about the agreement, because Trump told them otherwise behind closed doors.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
💥So it seems Viktor Orbán and his government have been lying for a week about their White House deal with Donald Trump — Marco Rubio now personally confirms Hungary only got a one-year exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas, not the “indefinite” one Orbán claimed.
November 13, 2025 at 1:18 PM
💥So it seems Viktor Orbán and his government have been lying for a week about their White House deal with Donald Trump — Marco Rubio now personally confirms Hungary only got a one-year exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas, not the “indefinite” one Orbán claimed.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
"Without support from energy markets, there is no apparent way for Russia to avoid recession. Stagflation can’t last forever when a country is burning through its working-age men, slashing productive investment, and unable to halt inflation"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
Russia’s Stagflation Trap – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (November 10−14)
ridl.io
November 13, 2025 at 12:44 PM
"Without support from energy markets, there is no apparent way for Russia to avoid recession. Stagflation can’t last forever when a country is burning through its working-age men, slashing productive investment, and unable to halt inflation"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
The situation is the same, if not worse, with regional finances. Aggregate deficits were at 724.8 billion in September (at this point in 2024 there was still an aggregate surplus) and the last quarter is usually the most expenditure-heavy. Problems are pretty uneven of course ridl.io/state-of-unr...
November 12, 2025 at 6:26 PM
The situation is the same, if not worse, with regional finances. Aggregate deficits were at 724.8 billion in September (at this point in 2024 there was still an aggregate surplus) and the last quarter is usually the most expenditure-heavy. Problems are pretty uneven of course ridl.io/state-of-unr...