@mikeinsdevon.bsky.social
Still trying to make sense of everything and avoid getting too confused!
Slightly unhinged, wide range of interests.
RIP Boo Boo 2009-2024
Slightly unhinged, wide range of interests.
RIP Boo Boo 2009-2024
Was thinking more Labour>Green and Labour>don't know/won't vote. The latter being the easier to win back.
November 26, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Was thinking more Labour>Green and Labour>don't know/won't vote. The latter being the easier to win back.
Question is, will it be enough to win back some of those ex-Labour voters in now battleground seats? Or is it too little, too late?
November 26, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Question is, will it be enough to win back some of those ex-Labour voters in now battleground seats? Or is it too little, too late?
That sounds very positive
November 26, 2025 at 1:35 PM
That sounds very positive
Is it incompetence or a deliberate attempt to bring down Reeves?
November 26, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Is it incompetence or a deliberate attempt to bring down Reeves?
A bid that's failing so far and likely to continue doing so. Do they have a death wish?
November 26, 2025 at 12:06 PM
A bid that's failing so far and likely to continue doing so. Do they have a death wish?
That said, thinking (famous last words!):
* Reform have peaked
* Greens also peaking
* Labour down to core vote but won't recover until Starmer, Reeves, McSweeney, Glasman etc. gone
* Tories also bottoming out
* Lib Dems presumably piled up in 100 or so seats
* SNP winning Scotland by default
* Reform have peaked
* Greens also peaking
* Labour down to core vote but won't recover until Starmer, Reeves, McSweeney, Glasman etc. gone
* Tories also bottoming out
* Lib Dems presumably piled up in 100 or so seats
* SNP winning Scotland by default
November 26, 2025 at 9:23 AM
That said, thinking (famous last words!):
* Reform have peaked
* Greens also peaking
* Labour down to core vote but won't recover until Starmer, Reeves, McSweeney, Glasman etc. gone
* Tories also bottoming out
* Lib Dems presumably piled up in 100 or so seats
* SNP winning Scotland by default
* Reform have peaked
* Greens also peaking
* Labour down to core vote but won't recover until Starmer, Reeves, McSweeney, Glasman etc. gone
* Tories also bottoming out
* Lib Dems presumably piled up in 100 or so seats
* SNP winning Scotland by default
Still thinking she'll go with Starmer after May's elections.
November 26, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Still thinking she'll go with Starmer after May's elections.
Let me guess - it's another one of McSweeney's brilliant ideas, or maybe Glasman's?
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Let me guess - it's another one of McSweeney's brilliant ideas, or maybe Glasman's?
Basically another no-change poll?
November 26, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Basically another no-change poll?
Reposted
Even sharia isnt applied, or fully applied, in Isamic countries and they often have different ideas of how it should be applied yet the RW just use the words as a fear trigger.
They want Ant Middleton as mayor of London yet he lives in Dubai......
They want Ant Middleton as mayor of London yet he lives in Dubai......
November 23, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Even sharia isnt applied, or fully applied, in Isamic countries and they often have different ideas of how it should be applied yet the RW just use the words as a fear trigger.
They want Ant Middleton as mayor of London yet he lives in Dubai......
They want Ant Middleton as mayor of London yet he lives in Dubai......
Not sure how I missed it first time but Ashfield - 2017 Lab>2019 Tory>2024 Reform. Does it count even if the MP stayed the same but defected and won re-election under new label?
November 25, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Not sure how I missed it first time but Ashfield - 2017 Lab>2019 Tory>2024 Reform. Does it count even if the MP stayed the same but defected and won re-election under new label?
It does seem on the low side.
November 25, 2025 at 8:31 PM
It does seem on the low side.
Off the top of my head Aberdeen South, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway and Stirling went 2010 Lab>2015 SNP>2017 Tory
Think Portsmouth South went 2010 LD>2015 Tory>2017 Lab
Think Portsmouth South went 2010 LD>2015 Tory>2017 Lab
November 25, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Off the top of my head Aberdeen South, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway and Stirling went 2010 Lab>2015 SNP>2017 Tory
Think Portsmouth South went 2010 LD>2015 Tory>2017 Lab
Think Portsmouth South went 2010 LD>2015 Tory>2017 Lab
Which three are you thinking of?
November 25, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Which three are you thinking of?
I was thinking Hall Green & Moseley based on recent local by-election in Moseley, it needing the smallest swing and potential for a very messy result.
November 25, 2025 at 8:16 PM
I was thinking Hall Green & Moseley based on recent local by-election in Moseley, it needing the smallest swing and potential for a very messy result.
I wondered whether they might go after the home secretary's scalp in Ladywood?
Assuming Hall Green and Moseley is the Lib Dems' best shot at an upset.
Assuming Hall Green and Moseley is the Lib Dems' best shot at an upset.
November 25, 2025 at 8:00 PM
I wondered whether they might go after the home secretary's scalp in Ladywood?
Assuming Hall Green and Moseley is the Lib Dems' best shot at an upset.
Assuming Hall Green and Moseley is the Lib Dems' best shot at an upset.
The way the media are going now wouldn't be shocked if they ditched the PM debate completely and just gave the airtime to Farage.
November 25, 2025 at 7:55 PM
The way the media are going now wouldn't be shocked if they ditched the PM debate completely and just gave the airtime to Farage.
I've been working on assumption of about 100 for the Lib Dems and (as things stand) 15-20 for Greens, both including defences. But now you mention that, will party finances allow it?
November 25, 2025 at 7:54 PM
I've been working on assumption of about 100 for the Lib Dems and (as things stand) 15-20 for Greens, both including defences. But now you mention that, will party finances allow it?
Both will be worth watching, not just in terms of numbers but also where they are. Looking for clusters of wards that point to obvious GE targets.
Also be looking to see whether Greens can really break through in places like central Birmingham and Manchester wards.
Also be looking to see whether Greens can really break through in places like central Birmingham and Manchester wards.
November 25, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Both will be worth watching, not just in terms of numbers but also where they are. Looking for clusters of wards that point to obvious GE targets.
Also be looking to see whether Greens can really break through in places like central Birmingham and Manchester wards.
Also be looking to see whether Greens can really break through in places like central Birmingham and Manchester wards.
Hopefully a sign they've peaked
November 25, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Hopefully a sign they've peaked