Michael Pettis
@michaelpettis.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at Carnegie China. For speaking engagements, please write to [email protected]
1/5
Good Setser piece on rising global imbalances. Thanks in part to his work, central bankers and mainstream economists are slowly beginning to acknowledge that rising global imbalances can be a problem for the global economy.
Eventually they all will.
www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-...
Good Setser piece on rising global imbalances. Thanks in part to his work, central bankers and mainstream economists are slowly beginning to acknowledge that rising global imbalances can be a problem for the global economy.
Eventually they all will.
www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-...
China’s Massive Surplus is Everywhere (Yet The IMF Still Has Trouble Seeing It Clearly)
China’s reported current account surplus understates China’s contribution to global trade imbalances. The massive gap between China’s export and import volume growth over the last six years tells a m…
www.cfr.org
November 13, 2025 at 5:39 PM
1/5
Good Setser piece on rising global imbalances. Thanks in part to his work, central bankers and mainstream economists are slowly beginning to acknowledge that rising global imbalances can be a problem for the global economy.
Eventually they all will.
www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-...
Good Setser piece on rising global imbalances. Thanks in part to his work, central bankers and mainstream economists are slowly beginning to acknowledge that rising global imbalances can be a problem for the global economy.
Eventually they all will.
www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-...
1/4
SCMP: "China’s solar industry association has pledged to “fight to the end” to curb cutthroat competition driven by oversupply, vowing to restore fair market order through industry self-discipline."
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
SCMP: "China’s solar industry association has pledged to “fight to the end” to curb cutthroat competition driven by oversupply, vowing to restore fair market order through industry self-discipline."
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
‘Don’t underestimate’ efforts to curb price wars, China’s solar sector warns
Companies seeking to profit from vicious and unfair competition warned they will fail ‘sooner or later’.
www.scmp.com
November 13, 2025 at 11:38 AM
1/4
SCMP: "China’s solar industry association has pledged to “fight to the end” to curb cutthroat competition driven by oversupply, vowing to restore fair market order through industry self-discipline."
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
SCMP: "China’s solar industry association has pledged to “fight to the end” to curb cutthroat competition driven by oversupply, vowing to restore fair market order through industry self-discipline."
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
Caixing warns that the rising use by Chinese local governments of culture-and-tourism investment companies risks replicating the mistakes of LGFVs. I'd add that in fact there is no way of maintaining high GDP growth targets without "replicating" those risks.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-12/i...
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-12/i...
In Depth: Chinese Local Governments Risk Replicating Mistakes of LGFVs
Localities have created thousands of ‘culture and tourism’ investment companies, with some designed to shift their traditional financing vehicles onto a market-oriented footing and sidestep borrowing ...
www.caixinglobal.com
November 13, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Caixing warns that the rising use by Chinese local governments of culture-and-tourism investment companies risks replicating the mistakes of LGFVs. I'd add that in fact there is no way of maintaining high GDP growth targets without "replicating" those risks.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-12/i...
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-12/i...
1/4
Caixin: "A significant increase in the household consumption ratio hinges on Beijing’s ability to solve a chronic problem of low household spending, a challenge rooted in sluggish income growth, widening inequality and inadequate public services."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-13/a...
Caixin: "A significant increase in the household consumption ratio hinges on Beijing’s ability to solve a chronic problem of low household spending, a challenge rooted in sluggish income growth, widening inequality and inadequate public services."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-13/a...
Analysis: China’s New Five-Year Plan Aims to Fix Its Spending Problem
Beijing aims to make domestic demand a stronger economic driver, but must first tackle lagging income growth, widening inequality and a shortage of quality services
www.caixinglobal.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:55 AM
1/4
Caixin: "A significant increase in the household consumption ratio hinges on Beijing’s ability to solve a chronic problem of low household spending, a challenge rooted in sluggish income growth, widening inequality and inadequate public services."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-13/a...
Caixin: "A significant increase in the household consumption ratio hinges on Beijing’s ability to solve a chronic problem of low household spending, a challenge rooted in sluggish income growth, widening inequality and inadequate public services."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-13/a...
Xinhua: "NEV production jumped 33.1 percent year on year to nearly 13.02 million units during the first 10 months of 2025. NEV exports surged 90.4 percent year on year to 2.01 million units."
english.news.cn/20251111/901...
english.news.cn/20251111/901...
China's NEV output, sales surge in first 10 months of 2025
english.news.cn
November 13, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Xinhua: "NEV production jumped 33.1 percent year on year to nearly 13.02 million units during the first 10 months of 2025. NEV exports surged 90.4 percent year on year to 2.01 million units."
english.news.cn/20251111/901...
english.news.cn/20251111/901...
1/4
According to Xinhua, "China's power battery industry maintained robust growth in the first three quarters of the year, with sales surging 48.9 percent year on year, while global power battery installation increased by 27.2 percent."
english.news.cn/20251112/ae4...
According to Xinhua, "China's power battery industry maintained robust growth in the first three quarters of the year, with sales surging 48.9 percent year on year, while global power battery installation increased by 27.2 percent."
english.news.cn/20251112/ae4...
China's power battery sales up 48.9 pct in first 3 quarters
english.news.cn
November 13, 2025 at 10:14 AM
1/4
According to Xinhua, "China's power battery industry maintained robust growth in the first three quarters of the year, with sales surging 48.9 percent year on year, while global power battery installation increased by 27.2 percent."
english.news.cn/20251112/ae4...
According to Xinhua, "China's power battery industry maintained robust growth in the first three quarters of the year, with sales surging 48.9 percent year on year, while global power battery installation increased by 27.2 percent."
english.news.cn/20251112/ae4...
1/10
NYT: "China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, demonstrating that China’s manufacturing dominance will not be easily slowed."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
NYT: "China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, demonstrating that China’s manufacturing dominance will not be easily slowed."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
China’s Global Exports Continue to Grow Despite Trump Tariffs (Gift Article)
As Trump has imposed steep tariffs on China, American importers are buying much less. But China has offset the decline from the United States with breathtaking speed.
www.nytimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 10:14 AM
1/10
NYT: "China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, demonstrating that China’s manufacturing dominance will not be easily slowed."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
NYT: "China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, demonstrating that China’s manufacturing dominance will not be easily slowed."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
1/2
Caixin: "China’s Ministry of Finance has created a new department to oversee government debt, consolidating responsibilities previously spread across multiple offices in an effort to strengthen fiscal oversight."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-04/c...
Caixin: "China’s Ministry of Finance has created a new department to oversee government debt, consolidating responsibilities previously spread across multiple offices in an effort to strengthen fiscal oversight."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-04/c...
China Creates Finance Ministry Debt Management Unit to Bolster Oversight
The new department consolidates government debt management functions and will focus on controlling hidden liabilities and reforming local financing vehicles
www.caixinglobal.com
November 4, 2025 at 6:13 AM
1/2
Caixin: "China’s Ministry of Finance has created a new department to oversee government debt, consolidating responsibilities previously spread across multiple offices in an effort to strengthen fiscal oversight."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-04/c...
Caixin: "China’s Ministry of Finance has created a new department to oversee government debt, consolidating responsibilities previously spread across multiple offices in an effort to strengthen fiscal oversight."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-04/c...
1/2
Caixin: "Private developers, largely sidelined since 2021 by tightening credit, collapsing sales, and mounting debt, are slowly returning to the market," accounting for 12.4% of total land purchases in the first ten months of 2025.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-04/p...
Caixin: "Private developers, largely sidelined since 2021 by tightening credit, collapsing sales, and mounting debt, are slowly returning to the market," accounting for 12.4% of total land purchases in the first ten months of 2025.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-04/p...
Private Developers Edge Back Into China’s Land Auctions After Long Retreat
Eighteen private firms entered the top 100 land buyers this year as easing credit and cheaper plots lure them back into play
www.caixinglobal.com
November 4, 2025 at 6:10 AM
1/2
Caixin: "Private developers, largely sidelined since 2021 by tightening credit, collapsing sales, and mounting debt, are slowly returning to the market," accounting for 12.4% of total land purchases in the first ten months of 2025.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-04/p...
Caixin: "Private developers, largely sidelined since 2021 by tightening credit, collapsing sales, and mounting debt, are slowly returning to the market," accounting for 12.4% of total land purchases in the first ten months of 2025.
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-11-04/p...
1/4
SCMP: "Chinese listed companies posted their fastest profit growth of the year in the third quarter, as a government-led drive to cut excess industrial output drove up margins and the nation’s tech self-reliance bolstered demand for semiconductors."
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
SCMP: "Chinese listed companies posted their fastest profit growth of the year in the third quarter, as a government-led drive to cut excess industrial output drove up margins and the nation’s tech self-reliance bolstered demand for semiconductors."
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
Chinese listed companies’ earnings surge on capacity cut, tech self-sufficiency
The strong quarterly results are expected to boost a rally in Chinese stocks that has been fuelled by a shift of bank savings to risk assets.
www.scmp.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:43 AM
1/4
SCMP: "Chinese listed companies posted their fastest profit growth of the year in the third quarter, as a government-led drive to cut excess industrial output drove up margins and the nation’s tech self-reliance bolstered demand for semiconductors."
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
SCMP: "Chinese listed companies posted their fastest profit growth of the year in the third quarter, as a government-led drive to cut excess industrial output drove up margins and the nation’s tech self-reliance bolstered demand for semiconductors."
www.scmp.com/business/chi...
1/4
According to China Daily, steel industry profits rose 1.9% year on year in the first nine months of 2025, even as steel production declined 2.9% and steel consumption declined 5.7%.
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/03/...
According to China Daily, steel industry profits rose 1.9% year on year in the first nine months of 2025, even as steel production declined 2.9% and steel consumption declined 5.7%.
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/03/...
Steel industry profits rise despite drop in consumption
China's iron and steel industry reported a 1.9-fold year-on-year increase in profits in the first three quarters, showing an improvement from a year earlier, Jiang Wei, vice-chairman and secretary-gen...
www.chinadaily.com.cn
November 3, 2025 at 8:25 AM
1/4
According to China Daily, steel industry profits rose 1.9% year on year in the first nine months of 2025, even as steel production declined 2.9% and steel consumption declined 5.7%.
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/03/...
According to China Daily, steel industry profits rose 1.9% year on year in the first nine months of 2025, even as steel production declined 2.9% and steel consumption declined 5.7%.
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/03/...
1/3
Caixin: "China will need to maintain average annual economic growth of 4.17% over the next decade to achieve its goal doubling the 2020 per capita GDP in constant prices."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-10-31/c...
Caixin: "China will need to maintain average annual economic growth of 4.17% over the next decade to achieve its goal doubling the 2020 per capita GDP in constant prices."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-10-31/c...
China’s 2035 GDP Goal Requires 4.17% Annual Growth
Beijing clarifies that to meet the target, it will use 2020 standards, which require doubling per capita GDP from that year
www.caixinglobal.com
November 2, 2025 at 12:13 PM
1/3
Caixin: "China will need to maintain average annual economic growth of 4.17% over the next decade to achieve its goal doubling the 2020 per capita GDP in constant prices."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-10-31/c...
Caixin: "China will need to maintain average annual economic growth of 4.17% over the next decade to achieve its goal doubling the 2020 per capita GDP in constant prices."
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-10-31/c...
I'd be a little skeptical While there may indeed be "a group high up within the administration that was interested in bolstering the international role of the dollar," there are also those who understand the relationship between dollar dominance and US deindustrialization.
www.ft.com/content/fae0...
www.ft.com/content/fae0...
US pushes for wider global dollar adoption
Officials in Washington explore how to encourage more countries to adopt greenback as their primary currency
www.ft.com
November 2, 2025 at 6:01 AM
I'd be a little skeptical While there may indeed be "a group high up within the administration that was interested in bolstering the international role of the dollar," there are also those who understand the relationship between dollar dominance and US deindustrialization.
www.ft.com/content/fae0...
www.ft.com/content/fae0...
1/3
Bloomberg: "It’s clear that Western nations are slowly starting to recognize the need for an embrace of production-oriented — rather than 1990s style consumer-focused — economic strategies."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Bloomberg: "It’s clear that Western nations are slowly starting to recognize the need for an embrace of production-oriented — rather than 1990s style consumer-focused — economic strategies."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
China Has Another Trade Weapon Waiting for America
It’s not just rare earths the US has to worry about. It’s pharmaceuticals, too.
www.bloomberg.com
November 1, 2025 at 3:00 PM
1/3
Bloomberg: "It’s clear that Western nations are slowly starting to recognize the need for an embrace of production-oriented — rather than 1990s style consumer-focused — economic strategies."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Bloomberg: "It’s clear that Western nations are slowly starting to recognize the need for an embrace of production-oriented — rather than 1990s style consumer-focused — economic strategies."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
1/6
Reuters warns that China's over-reliance on investment and exports to power its economy appears to have reached a limit, with Chinese leaders signalling a sharper shift towards supporting consumption over the next five years.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Reuters warns that China's over-reliance on investment and exports to power its economy appears to have reached a limit, with Chinese leaders signalling a sharper shift towards supporting consumption over the next five years.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
www.reuters.com
October 31, 2025 at 8:38 AM
1/6
Reuters warns that China's over-reliance on investment and exports to power its economy appears to have reached a limit, with Chinese leaders signalling a sharper shift towards supporting consumption over the next five years.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Reuters warns that China's over-reliance on investment and exports to power its economy appears to have reached a limit, with Chinese leaders signalling a sharper shift towards supporting consumption over the next five years.
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
China Banking News: "Lian Ping, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, argues that China continues to face risks and perils on multiple fronts, all of which threaten to undermine its economic growth prospects."
www.chinabankingnews.com/p/the-six-po...
www.chinabankingnews.com/p/the-six-po...
The six-point plan to save China's economy from "landslide" decline
Lian Ping says China's economic woes are far from over...
www.chinabankingnews.com
October 31, 2025 at 8:08 AM
China Banking News: "Lian Ping, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, argues that China continues to face risks and perils on multiple fronts, all of which threaten to undermine its economic growth prospects."
www.chinabankingnews.com/p/the-six-po...
www.chinabankingnews.com/p/the-six-po...
1/5
China Banking News says that former PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan disagrees with the claim that China's refusal to run trade deficits limits the global role of the renminbi. He also believes that to do so would undermine Chinese manufacturing.
www.chinabankingnews.com/p/chinas-ala...
China Banking News says that former PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan disagrees with the claim that China's refusal to run trade deficits limits the global role of the renminbi. He also believes that to do so would undermine Chinese manufacturing.
www.chinabankingnews.com/p/chinas-ala...
China’s Alan Greenspan says the fate of the US dollar lies in the hands of Beijing
Zhou Xiaochuan expects US dollar to retain global dominance unless the renminbi fights for it.
www.chinabankingnews.com
October 31, 2025 at 8:05 AM
1/5
China Banking News says that former PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan disagrees with the claim that China's refusal to run trade deficits limits the global role of the renminbi. He also believes that to do so would undermine Chinese manufacturing.
www.chinabankingnews.com/p/chinas-ala...
China Banking News says that former PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan disagrees with the claim that China's refusal to run trade deficits limits the global role of the renminbi. He also believes that to do so would undermine Chinese manufacturing.
www.chinabankingnews.com/p/chinas-ala...
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, on the Foreign Relations Committee, calls for "a rebuilt bipartisan consensus around our approach to China".
www.wsj.com/opinion/amer...
www.wsj.com/opinion/amer...
Opinion | America Needs a Bipartisan China Strategy
Trump’s trade war isn’t working, but neither did previous administrations’ policy of accommodation.
www.wsj.com
October 31, 2025 at 6:58 AM
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, on the Foreign Relations Committee, calls for "a rebuilt bipartisan consensus around our approach to China".
www.wsj.com/opinion/amer...
www.wsj.com/opinion/amer...
For those who might be in Singapore this weekend, there will be some great indie bands from around Asia at the Baybeats festival, including several from China. I would definitely check out Beijing's Carsick Cars at the Arena on Sunday evening.
www.esplanade.com/whats-on/fes...
www.esplanade.com/whats-on/fes...
Baybeats 2025 - Esplanade
Four days of indie rock and alternative music on the bay, featuring the best of Singapore and beyond.
www.esplanade.com
October 31, 2025 at 6:52 AM
For those who might be in Singapore this weekend, there will be some great indie bands from around Asia at the Baybeats festival, including several from China. I would definitely check out Beijing's Carsick Cars at the Arena on Sunday evening.
www.esplanade.com/whats-on/fes...
www.esplanade.com/whats-on/fes...
1/3
Yicai: "China has slashed the number of local government financing platforms by more than 70 percent over the past two and a half years, as a package of policies to prevent and resolve implicit debt risks takes effect nationwide."
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-c...
Yicai: "China has slashed the number of local government financing platforms by more than 70 percent over the past two and a half years, as a package of policies to prevent and resolve implicit debt risks takes effect nationwide."
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-c...
China Shuts Over 70% of Local Gov’t Financing Vehicles in Hidden Debt Cleanup
www.yicaiglobal.com
October 30, 2025 at 10:34 AM
1/3
Yicai: "China has slashed the number of local government financing platforms by more than 70 percent over the past two and a half years, as a package of policies to prevent and resolve implicit debt risks takes effect nationwide."
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-c...
Yicai: "China has slashed the number of local government financing platforms by more than 70 percent over the past two and a half years, as a package of policies to prevent and resolve implicit debt risks takes effect nationwide."
www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-c...
Xinhua: "China has allocated a total of 500 billion yuan through a new policy-based financial instrument. The move is expected to stimulate over 7 trillion yuan in investment, according to statistics from the policy banks."
english.news.cn/20251030/6be...
english.news.cn/20251030/6be...
China channels 500 bln yuan through new policy-based financial instrument to spur investment
english.news.cn
October 30, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Xinhua: "China has allocated a total of 500 billion yuan through a new policy-based financial instrument. The move is expected to stimulate over 7 trillion yuan in investment, according to statistics from the policy banks."
english.news.cn/20251030/6be...
english.news.cn/20251030/6be...
This is silly. Tariffs should be used to protect strategically important industries or to retaliate against beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies. They should not be used to punish countries like Canada, who share part of the burden of absorbing global saving imbalances.
www.ft.com/content/8e90...
www.ft.com/content/8e90...
Trump to raise tariffs on Canada by 10% over Ontario’s Reagan ad
US president was angered by a television advertisement quoting former president’s disdain for import levies
www.ft.com
October 26, 2025 at 4:31 AM
This is silly. Tariffs should be used to protect strategically important industries or to retaliate against beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies. They should not be used to punish countries like Canada, who share part of the burden of absorbing global saving imbalances.
www.ft.com/content/8e90...
www.ft.com/content/8e90...
Exploration budgets for rare earths are expanding very rapidly around the world, led by Australia, Brazil, South Africa, the US and Canada, in that order.
www.ft.com/content/eb13...
www.ft.com/content/eb13...
Australia’s ‘rock star’ rare earth miners profit from US-China tensions
Canberra emerges as key partner with Washington to counter Beijing’s critical mineral supply chain
www.ft.com
October 26, 2025 at 4:24 AM
Exploration budgets for rare earths are expanding very rapidly around the world, led by Australia, Brazil, South Africa, the US and Canada, in that order.
www.ft.com/content/eb13...
www.ft.com/content/eb13...
FT: "External renminbi loans, deposits and bond investments by Chinese banks quadrupled to more than $480bn over the past five years, as policymakers more aggressively pursue their long-term goal of reducing the centrality of the dollar in global financial flows."
www.ft.com/content/4577...
www.ft.com/content/4577...
Overseas renminbi lending surges as China steps up campaign to de-dollarise
Beijing’s push will speed moves to multi-polar monetary system, analysts say
www.ft.com
October 26, 2025 at 4:15 AM
FT: "External renminbi loans, deposits and bond investments by Chinese banks quadrupled to more than $480bn over the past five years, as policymakers more aggressively pursue their long-term goal of reducing the centrality of the dollar in global financial flows."
www.ft.com/content/4577...
www.ft.com/content/4577...
1/2
Reuters: "The first major goal of the next five-year plan is to keep economic growth at a "reasonable" range and "significantly" raise the percentage of household consumption of GDP, said Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Financial and....
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Reuters: "The first major goal of the next five-year plan is to keep economic growth at a "reasonable" range and "significantly" raise the percentage of household consumption of GDP, said Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Financial and....
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
China vows to raise household consumption 'significantly'
China will increase the proportion of government investment for people's livelihoods and raise the percentage of household consumption of GDP "significantly" over the next five years, officials told reporters on Friday.
www.reuters.com
October 26, 2025 at 4:04 AM
1/2
Reuters: "The first major goal of the next five-year plan is to keep economic growth at a "reasonable" range and "significantly" raise the percentage of household consumption of GDP, said Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Financial and....
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Reuters: "The first major goal of the next five-year plan is to keep economic growth at a "reasonable" range and "significantly" raise the percentage of household consumption of GDP, said Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Financial and....
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...