Michael Pettis
@michaelpettis.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at Carnegie China. For speaking engagements, please write to [email protected]
2/2
Here is Joyside performing in D22, one of our favorite bands.
Here is Joyside performing in D22, one of our favorite bands.
October 14, 2025 at 9:22 AM
2/2
Here is Joyside performing in D22, one of our favorite bands.
Here is Joyside performing in D22, one of our favorite bands.
1/2
A friend just sent me this picture I had to share. It is of when I had dinner, about 12 years ago with the New York Doll's David Johansen and Sylvain Sylvain and Joyside's Bian Yuan.
A friend just sent me this picture I had to share. It is of when I had dinner, about 12 years ago with the New York Doll's David Johansen and Sylvain Sylvain and Joyside's Bian Yuan.
October 14, 2025 at 9:22 AM
1/2
A friend just sent me this picture I had to share. It is of when I had dinner, about 12 years ago with the New York Doll's David Johansen and Sylvain Sylvain and Joyside's Bian Yuan.
A friend just sent me this picture I had to share. It is of when I had dinner, about 12 years ago with the New York Doll's David Johansen and Sylvain Sylvain and Joyside's Bian Yuan.
1/10
I just finished reading Sven Beckert's history of the development of the global cotton industry. It's a bit repetitive in its main theses, and sometimes a bit of a slog, but well worth reading for those interested in the history of trade and industrial policy.
I just finished reading Sven Beckert's history of the development of the global cotton industry. It's a bit repetitive in its main theses, and sometimes a bit of a slog, but well worth reading for those interested in the history of trade and industrial policy.
September 29, 2025 at 12:38 PM
1/10
I just finished reading Sven Beckert's history of the development of the global cotton industry. It's a bit repetitive in its main theses, and sometimes a bit of a slog, but well worth reading for those interested in the history of trade and industrial policy.
I just finished reading Sven Beckert's history of the development of the global cotton industry. It's a bit repetitive in its main theses, and sometimes a bit of a slog, but well worth reading for those interested in the history of trade and industrial policy.
Last night, Beijing's 798 district had two completely different shows. One of my favorite Chinese bands, White+, put on a brilliant atmospheric concert while nearby, Beijing punk legends, Demerit, revived blitzkrieg pop.
September 26, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Last night, Beijing's 798 district had two completely different shows. One of my favorite Chinese bands, White+, put on a brilliant atmospheric concert while nearby, Beijing punk legends, Demerit, revived blitzkrieg pop.
From the National Bureau of Statistics.
September 10, 2025 at 4:01 AM
From the National Bureau of Statistics.
For friends in Beijing who are interested in the music scene, beginning today we are starting a new weekly series at My Dramamine, featuring many of the best composers and experimental musicians in Beijing and China. The series kicks off with performances by Zhang Shouwang and Wang Xu.
September 4, 2025 at 3:18 AM
For friends in Beijing who are interested in the music scene, beginning today we are starting a new weekly series at My Dramamine, featuring many of the best composers and experimental musicians in Beijing and China. The series kicks off with performances by Zhang Shouwang and Wang Xu.
At Beijing's School Club last week. Three guys who have been part of the Beijing music scene since ancient times.
August 31, 2025 at 9:34 AM
At Beijing's School Club last week. Three guys who have been part of the Beijing music scene since ancient times.
1/2
It was very sad to hear Bob Aliber died earlier this summer. His easy manner, his sense of humor, and his deep knowledge of financial history and international economics made him a wonderful person to talk to.
It was very sad to hear Bob Aliber died earlier this summer. His easy manner, his sense of humor, and his deep knowledge of financial history and international economics made him a wonderful person to talk to.
August 21, 2025 at 1:57 PM
1/2
It was very sad to hear Bob Aliber died earlier this summer. His easy manner, his sense of humor, and his deep knowledge of financial history and international economics made him a wonderful person to talk to.
It was very sad to hear Bob Aliber died earlier this summer. His easy manner, his sense of humor, and his deep knowledge of financial history and international economics made him a wonderful person to talk to.
4/4
Anyone who has experienced Chinese stock markets during the past 20 years will remember the brutal collapses in 2008 and 2015, although these were preceded by much sharper rallies than anything we've seen in the past year.
Anyone who has experienced Chinese stock markets during the past 20 years will remember the brutal collapses in 2008 and 2015, although these were preceded by much sharper rallies than anything we've seen in the past year.
August 13, 2025 at 4:42 AM
4/4
Anyone who has experienced Chinese stock markets during the past 20 years will remember the brutal collapses in 2008 and 2015, although these were preceded by much sharper rallies than anything we've seen in the past year.
Anyone who has experienced Chinese stock markets during the past 20 years will remember the brutal collapses in 2008 and 2015, although these were preceded by much sharper rallies than anything we've seen in the past year.
1/4
I just finished Martin Daunton's excellent survey and analysis of the last 100 years of globalization. There is an enormous amount of material here (nearly 900 pages) and it may not be an easy read for those who aren't already very familiar with much of this history.
I just finished Martin Daunton's excellent survey and analysis of the last 100 years of globalization. There is an enormous amount of material here (nearly 900 pages) and it may not be an easy read for those who aren't already very familiar with much of this history.
June 30, 2025 at 2:03 PM
1/4
I just finished Martin Daunton's excellent survey and analysis of the last 100 years of globalization. There is an enormous amount of material here (nearly 900 pages) and it may not be an easy read for those who aren't already very familiar with much of this history.
I just finished Martin Daunton's excellent survey and analysis of the last 100 years of globalization. There is an enormous amount of material here (nearly 900 pages) and it may not be an easy read for those who aren't already very familiar with much of this history.
7/14
If all major economies choose greater global integration, or more economic sovereignty, we can have an optimal trading system of more-or-less balanced trade because automatic adjustments to a country's external imbalances will limit its ability to export its internal imbalances.
If all major economies choose greater global integration, or more economic sovereignty, we can have an optimal trading system of more-or-less balanced trade because automatic adjustments to a country's external imbalances will limit its ability to export its internal imbalances.
June 20, 2025 at 9:21 AM
7/14
If all major economies choose greater global integration, or more economic sovereignty, we can have an optimal trading system of more-or-less balanced trade because automatic adjustments to a country's external imbalances will limit its ability to export its internal imbalances.
If all major economies choose greater global integration, or more economic sovereignty, we can have an optimal trading system of more-or-less balanced trade because automatic adjustments to a country's external imbalances will limit its ability to export its internal imbalances.
5/14
Remember that every country's internal imbalance must always be perfectly consistent with its external imbalance, and also that its external imbalance must always be perfectly consistent with the external imbalance of its trading partners.
Remember that every country's internal imbalance must always be perfectly consistent with its external imbalance, and also that its external imbalance must always be perfectly consistent with the external imbalance of its trading partners.
June 20, 2025 at 9:21 AM
5/14
Remember that every country's internal imbalance must always be perfectly consistent with its external imbalance, and also that its external imbalance must always be perfectly consistent with the external imbalance of its trading partners.
Remember that every country's internal imbalance must always be perfectly consistent with its external imbalance, and also that its external imbalance must always be perfectly consistent with the external imbalance of its trading partners.
3/3
Not so long ago most economists understood how changes in capital flows could drive disruptive changes in trade flows and in domestic imbalances. We are about to relearn this.
Not so long ago most economists understood how changes in capital flows could drive disruptive changes in trade flows and in domestic imbalances. We are about to relearn this.
June 18, 2025 at 5:29 AM
3/3
Not so long ago most economists understood how changes in capital flows could drive disruptive changes in trade flows and in domestic imbalances. We are about to relearn this.
Not so long ago most economists understood how changes in capital flows could drive disruptive changes in trade flows and in domestic imbalances. We are about to relearn this.
2/7
I think this is the right way to understand what we are going through. Trade disruption did not start in 2018. In my 2013 book I argued that given huge and growing trade imbalances, the world was headed inevitably towards trade conflict.
I think this is the right way to understand what we are going through. Trade disruption did not start in 2018. In my 2013 book I argued that given huge and growing trade imbalances, the world was headed inevitably towards trade conflict.
May 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM
2/7
I think this is the right way to understand what we are going through. Trade disruption did not start in 2018. In my 2013 book I argued that given huge and growing trade imbalances, the world was headed inevitably towards trade conflict.
I think this is the right way to understand what we are going through. Trade disruption did not start in 2018. In my 2013 book I argued that given huge and growing trade imbalances, the world was headed inevitably towards trade conflict.
1/2
I just finished reading Benn Steil's very interesting biography of Henry Wallace. He was a major political figure under FDR and, later, in opposition to Harry Truman, although by the late 1950s he began...
I just finished reading Benn Steil's very interesting biography of Henry Wallace. He was a major political figure under FDR and, later, in opposition to Harry Truman, although by the late 1950s he began...
May 3, 2025 at 8:48 AM
1/2
I just finished reading Benn Steil's very interesting biography of Henry Wallace. He was a major political figure under FDR and, later, in opposition to Harry Truman, although by the late 1950s he began...
I just finished reading Benn Steil's very interesting biography of Henry Wallace. He was a major political figure under FDR and, later, in opposition to Harry Truman, although by the late 1950s he began...
For those who are interested in the Chinese indie music scene, one of my favorite Beijing bands recently released their newest album.
April 4, 2025 at 2:01 PM
For those who are interested in the Chinese indie music scene, one of my favorite Beijing bands recently released their newest album.
4/5
One of the main points Matt Klein and I made in our book is that trade conflict shouldn't be seen as a conflict between countries so much as a conflict between different sectors in each country.
One of the main points Matt Klein and I made in our book is that trade conflict shouldn't be seen as a conflict between countries so much as a conflict between different sectors in each country.
March 31, 2025 at 4:52 AM
4/5
One of the main points Matt Klein and I made in our book is that trade conflict shouldn't be seen as a conflict between countries so much as a conflict between different sectors in each country.
One of the main points Matt Klein and I made in our book is that trade conflict shouldn't be seen as a conflict between countries so much as a conflict between different sectors in each country.
1/2
It seems like nearly half of my Beijing musician friends are in Japan to see 78-year-old Iggy Pop's performance at PunkSpring 2025. He just finished a 90-minute set, and I've been getting clips all night from friends, some of whom have told me they're almost in tears.
It seems like nearly half of my Beijing musician friends are in Japan to see 78-year-old Iggy Pop's performance at PunkSpring 2025. He just finished a 90-minute set, and I've been getting clips all night from friends, some of whom have told me they're almost in tears.
March 30, 2025 at 3:06 PM
1/2
It seems like nearly half of my Beijing musician friends are in Japan to see 78-year-old Iggy Pop's performance at PunkSpring 2025. He just finished a 90-minute set, and I've been getting clips all night from friends, some of whom have told me they're almost in tears.
It seems like nearly half of my Beijing musician friends are in Japan to see 78-year-old Iggy Pop's performance at PunkSpring 2025. He just finished a 90-minute set, and I've been getting clips all night from friends, some of whom have told me they're almost in tears.
20/20
I am pretty sure that eventually everyone will rediscover the mutual links between the domestic and external balances, and the tension between global integration and national control. Until then, I recommend this book.
I am pretty sure that eventually everyone will rediscover the mutual links between the domestic and external balances, and the tension between global integration and national control. Until then, I recommend this book.
March 28, 2025 at 5:25 AM
20/20
I am pretty sure that eventually everyone will rediscover the mutual links between the domestic and external balances, and the tension between global integration and national control. Until then, I recommend this book.
I am pretty sure that eventually everyone will rediscover the mutual links between the domestic and external balances, and the tension between global integration and national control. Until then, I recommend this book.
March 21, 2025 at 4:08 AM
2/3
The bad news is that it quickened after a year in which retail sales growth had been horrible, and it is worth noting that in 2025, the Jan-Feb numbers, which are typically boosted by holiday spending, were much worse than the Jan-Feb numbers for 2024.
The bad news is that it quickened after a year in which retail sales growth had been horrible, and it is worth noting that in 2025, the Jan-Feb numbers, which are typically boosted by holiday spending, were much worse than the Jan-Feb numbers for 2024.
March 17, 2025 at 7:11 AM
2/3
The bad news is that it quickened after a year in which retail sales growth had been horrible, and it is worth noting that in 2025, the Jan-Feb numbers, which are typically boosted by holiday spending, were much worse than the Jan-Feb numbers for 2024.
The bad news is that it quickened after a year in which retail sales growth had been horrible, and it is worth noting that in 2025, the Jan-Feb numbers, which are typically boosted by holiday spending, were much worse than the Jan-Feb numbers for 2024.
6/6
This is what Ragnar Nurkse meant when he wrote in 1944 that “the devaluation of a currency is expansionary in effect if it corrects a previous overvaluation, but deflationary if it makes the currency undervalued.”
This is what Ragnar Nurkse meant when he wrote in 1944 that “the devaluation of a currency is expansionary in effect if it corrects a previous overvaluation, but deflationary if it makes the currency undervalued.”
February 17, 2025 at 7:51 AM
6/6
This is what Ragnar Nurkse meant when he wrote in 1944 that “the devaluation of a currency is expansionary in effect if it corrects a previous overvaluation, but deflationary if it makes the currency undervalued.”
This is what Ragnar Nurkse meant when he wrote in 1944 that “the devaluation of a currency is expansionary in effect if it corrects a previous overvaluation, but deflationary if it makes the currency undervalued.”