Michael Kofman
@michaelkofman.bsky.social
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.
Pokrovsk is not insignificant, but the economic and logistical value of the city was lost long ago last fall. Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force to ensure a sustainable defense in the medium to long term. 13/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Pokrovsk is not insignificant, but the economic and logistical value of the city was lost long ago last fall. Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force to ensure a sustainable defense in the medium to long term. 13/
Perhaps remarkably the city has been held for over a year, forcing Russian forces to expend manpower fighting for it, and try go around it. Though over time it turned from a useful defensive anchor to another salient, which has proven increasingly difficult to maintain. /12
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Perhaps remarkably the city has been held for over a year, forcing Russian forces to expend manpower fighting for it, and try go around it. Though over time it turned from a useful defensive anchor to another salient, which has proven increasingly difficult to maintain. /12
Russia’s advance this year has been lackluster, especially along the axes they prioritized. The costs have been high as well relative to the amount of terrain gained. But Pokrovsk can be an unfortunate postscript to that story, especially if it results in unnecessary losses. 11/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Russia’s advance this year has been lackluster, especially along the axes they prioritized. The costs have been high as well relative to the amount of terrain gained. But Pokrovsk can be an unfortunate postscript to that story, especially if it results in unnecessary losses. 11/
The city holds operational value. Its loss widens the Russian axis of advance in Donetsk west of the Kramatorsk conglomeration of towns, but it does not open those cities to be quickly taken. Hence the impact of losing Pokrovsk should not be overstated. 10/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
The city holds operational value. Its loss widens the Russian axis of advance in Donetsk west of the Kramatorsk conglomeration of towns, but it does not open those cities to be quickly taken. Hence the impact of losing Pokrovsk should not be overstated. 10/
The challenge is that drones now effect fire control in 15-20km depths such that it is not possible to withdraw equipment, and much harder to extract people from the pocket (especially from any forward positions). It is no longer possible to wait to the last minute. 9/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
The challenge is that drones now effect fire control in 15-20km depths such that it is not possible to withdraw equipment, and much harder to extract people from the pocket (especially from any forward positions). It is no longer possible to wait to the last minute. 9/
The conditions are arguably better than the circumstances around Avdiivka in 2024. Russian forces lack momentum and the way they have been fighting won’t generate it. Infiltration yields a creeping offensive but can’t result in operationally significant breakthroughs. 8/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
The conditions are arguably better than the circumstances around Avdiivka in 2024. Russian forces lack momentum and the way they have been fighting won’t generate it. Infiltration yields a creeping offensive but can’t result in operationally significant breakthroughs. 8/
If Pokrovsk falls so does Myrnohrad, and the pocket closes. The immediate result is Russian forces will operate drones from Pokrovsk, using the city to displace AFU units further back. Ukraine has defensive lines to withdraw to, and can reset its defense. 7/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
If Pokrovsk falls so does Myrnohrad, and the pocket closes. The immediate result is Russian forces will operate drones from Pokrovsk, using the city to displace AFU units further back. Ukraine has defensive lines to withdraw to, and can reset its defense. 7/
Ukraine has brought in reinforcements and elite units to stabilize the flanks. They are counterattacking, but this may not be enough given the extent of Russian infiltration at this stage. 6/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Ukraine has brought in reinforcements and elite units to stabilize the flanks. They are counterattacking, but this may not be enough given the extent of Russian infiltration at this stage. 6/
As Russian forces accumulated in Pokrovsk they increasingly began to bring in drone teams, and operate drones from the city itself, widening the contested area around the city and interdicting logistics. 5/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
As Russian forces accumulated in Pokrovsk they increasingly began to bring in drone teams, and operate drones from the city itself, widening the contested area around the city and interdicting logistics. 5/
Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Response Corps, which took over the situation in July, has had the unenviable task of stabilizing the situation given deteriorating conditions, lack of reserves, and manning levels of deployed units. The geometry of the battle has long been unfavorable. 4/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Response Corps, which took over the situation in July, has had the unenviable task of stabilizing the situation given deteriorating conditions, lack of reserves, and manning levels of deployed units. The geometry of the battle has long been unfavorable. 4/
Earlier in the summer AFU units were working to stem the infiltration. The Russian advance at Dobropillia to some extent forced a shift of attention & resources. A lack of operational reserves has long resulted in a ‘firefighting’ approach to counter advances across the line. 3/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Earlier in the summer AFU units were working to stem the infiltration. The Russian advance at Dobropillia to some extent forced a shift of attention & resources. A lack of operational reserves has long resulted in a ‘firefighting’ approach to counter advances across the line. 3/
The situation around Pokrovsk deteriorated over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through the southern part of the city. Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather, especially fog, enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks. 2/
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
The situation around Pokrovsk deteriorated over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through the southern part of the city. Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather, especially fog, enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks. 2/