Michael Kofman
@michaelkofman.bsky.social
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.
Reposted by Michael Kofman
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak to the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the battle for Pokrovsk and what it means for the broader trajectory of Russia's war against Ukraine. www.powervertical.org/2025/11/07/t...
THE POKROVSK ENDGAME – AND AFTERMATH
powervertical · THE BATTLE OF POKROVSK Russia continues to focus its firepower on the strategic and battered eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said th…
www.powervertical.org
November 8, 2025 at 7:30 PM
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak to the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the battle for Pokrovsk and what it means for the broader trajectory of Russia's war against Ukraine. www.powervertical.org/2025/11/07/t...
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds.
@WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
@WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Ukrainian Drone Unit Commander Shares Lessons from the Front - War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds.
@WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
@WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @massdara.bsky.social and @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the current course of the war, recent developments, and policy trajectory here in DC. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/10/hold...
Holding Ground: Ukraine, Russia, and the Politics of Persistence
Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to discuss the state of the front, how Ukraine and Russia are staying in the fight, the possible provision of
warontherocks.com
October 15, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @massdara.bsky.social and @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the current course of the war, recent developments, and policy trajectory here in DC. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/10/hold...
Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Austin Long and Pranay Vaddi to talk about the fall 2022 nuclear crisis. Was it a crisis? What do we think happened? Three years on, do we know now that can shed more light on this period? warontherocks.com/episode/ther... @warontherocks.bsky.social
The 2022 Nuclear Crisis: A Retrospective - War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
October 14, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Austin Long and Pranay Vaddi to talk about the fall 2022 nuclear crisis. Was it a crisis? What do we think happened? Three years on, do we know now that can shed more light on this period? warontherocks.com/episode/ther... @warontherocks.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael Kofman
Pour le plaisir, un autre extrait de l’émission avec @michaelkofman.bsky.social, où l’on parle du grand coup de génie des Russes qu’est l’emploi de motocross, et de ce que ça nous apprend.
October 11, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Pour le plaisir, un autre extrait de l’émission avec @michaelkofman.bsky.social, où l’on parle du grand coup de génie des Russes qu’est l’emploi de motocross, et de ce que ça nous apprend.
The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug
https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/36087/finlands-frontline-and-natos-northern-defense/
t.co
September 27, 2025 at 8:55 PM
The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug
Reposted by Michael Kofman
Very much looking forward to welcoming @michaelkofman.bsky.social at @irsem.bsky.social, to his keynote on the strategic lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to discussing implications for European security with @elietenenbaum.bsky.social and Maud Quessard!
October 6
www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...
October 6
www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...
Strategic Lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War: Implications for European Security - IRSEM
www.irsem.fr
September 24, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Very much looking forward to welcoming @michaelkofman.bsky.social at @irsem.bsky.social, to his keynote on the strategic lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to discussing implications for European security with @elietenenbaum.bsky.social and Maud Quessard!
October 6
www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...
October 6
www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...
Reposted by Michael Kofman
Security guarantees looked one way in Alaska, and another in Washington. @massdara.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social join Ryan to break down which version Ukraine might get.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
August 22, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Security guarantees looked one way in Alaska, and another in Washington. @massdara.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social join Ryan to break down which version Ukraine might get.
Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...
Reposted by Michael Kofman
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"Half-Baked Alaska"
On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result.
(£/free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...
"Half-Baked Alaska"
On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result.
(£/free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...
Half-Baked Alaska
Moving from ceasefire to full settlement
samf.substack.com
August 16, 2025 at 2:28 PM
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"Half-Baked Alaska"
On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result.
(£/free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...
"Half-Baked Alaska"
On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result.
(£/free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...
Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the requirements, tasks, and what a European deterrence force might look like - check out this piece from back in March with Jack Watling. warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...
Willpower, Not Manpower, is Europe’s Main Limitation for a Force in Ukraine - War on the Rocks
Following a dramatic meeting in the White House, U.S. military support for Ukraine is perilously uncertain. Sustaining Ukraine in this war, and
warontherocks.com
August 17, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the requirements, tasks, and what a European deterrence force might look like - check out this piece from back in March with Jack Watling. warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...
Reposted by Michael Kofman
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the state of the front lines in Ukraine.
www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...
www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...
THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER
powervertical · THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER Russia’s summer offensive is in full swing with Moscow capitalizing on a series of small advances in an attempt to reshape control of the front l…
www.powervertical.org
August 1, 2025 at 11:01 PM
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the state of the front lines in Ukraine.
www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...
www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...
Recently met this great UA customs inspector
July 26, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Recently met this great UA customs inspector
Reposted by Michael Kofman
Uh oh.
Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com
Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com
Zelenskyy MPs balk at restoring anti-corruption bodies over “revenge” fears
MPs fearing prosecution refuse to vote on bill that restores independence of anti-corruption agencies
www.ft.com
July 25, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Uh oh.
Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com
Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com
Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...
How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back
War on the Rocks · Episode
open.spotify.com
July 9, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...
Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...
I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck – War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
June 26, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...
Reposted by Michael Kofman
Important. "The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US [DIA] intelligence assessment" edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/p...
Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say | CNN Politics
The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an e...
edition.cnn.com
June 24, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Important. "The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US [DIA] intelligence assessment" edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/p...
NYT on the decision to strike Iran. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...
Shifting Views and Misdirection: How Trump Decided to Strike Iran
www.nytimes.com
June 23, 2025 at 11:52 AM
NYT on the decision to strike Iran. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...
Reposted by Michael Kofman
[email protected] and I had a great conversation with the always insightful @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war in Ukraine. Mike shared his assessment of the frontline situation, how things are going for each side, & what he’s watching closely in the months ahead.
A Battlefield Update from Mike Kofman | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts
Max and Maria get another update from military expert Mike Kofman on the state of the frontlines in Ukraine.
www.csis.org
June 20, 2025 at 5:28 PM
[email protected] and I had a great conversation with the always insightful @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war in Ukraine. Mike shared his assessment of the frontline situation, how things are going for each side, & what he’s watching closely in the months ahead.
Latest RC is out. I join @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and Guy Plopsky to talk about the Israeli vs Russian air campaign. Why one succeed and the other failed. How can these different wars be usefully compared? What are observations or lessons learned. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Air Power in Practice: Lessons from Israel and Russia, Part 1 – War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
June 19, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Latest RC is out. I join @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and Guy Plopsky to talk about the Israeli vs Russian air campaign. Why one succeed and the other failed. How can these different wars be usefully compared? What are observations or lessons learned. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.
Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.
June 7, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.
For folks who missed it. I sat down with the head of Estonian Military Intelligence for a conversation on the Russia-Ukraine war, how he sees the future Russia threat, and the security dynamic in the Baltic. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
An Estonian Perspective on the Current and Future Russian Threat – War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
June 7, 2025 at 1:31 AM
For folks who missed it. I sat down with the head of Estonian Military Intelligence for a conversation on the Russia-Ukraine war, how he sees the future Russia threat, and the security dynamic in the Baltic. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Another Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and @massdara.bsky.social join me for a good discussion on the SBU operation, what we know, implications, and exchange views on the current course of the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Unpacking Ukraine’s Audacious Drone Raid – War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
June 6, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Another Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and @massdara.bsky.social join me for a good discussion on the SBU operation, what we know, implications, and exchange views on the current course of the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Reposted by Michael Kofman
With interviews featuring Leon Panetta, Frank Kendall, Michael A. Brown, @spettyjohn.bsky.social, Paul Scharre, @mchorowitz.bsky.social @aaronbateman.bsky.social, @michaelkofman.bsky.social, Kate Epstein, Thomas G. Mahnken, Benjamin Jensen, Jack Shanahan, James Roche and many more
June 5, 2025 at 10:39 PM
With interviews featuring Leon Panetta, Frank Kendall, Michael A. Brown, @spettyjohn.bsky.social, Paul Scharre, @mchorowitz.bsky.social @aaronbateman.bsky.social, @michaelkofman.bsky.social, Kate Epstein, Thomas G. Mahnken, Benjamin Jensen, Jack Shanahan, James Roche and many more
Reposted by Michael Kofman
Rob Lee, @michaelkofman.bsky.social and I share our views on drone strikes on Russian bombers, and views on the frontlines in Ukraine below @warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Unpacking Ukraine’s Audacious Drone Raid – War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com
June 5, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Rob Lee, @michaelkofman.bsky.social and I share our views on drone strikes on Russian bombers, and views on the frontlines in Ukraine below @warontherocks.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
warontherocks.com/episode/ther...