Mike Spagat
@michael-spagat.bsky.social
Economist who studies war. Chair of Every Casualty Counts and former Chair of Action on Armed Violence. Obsessed with measurement.
Hi, how are you doing?
August 23, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Hi, how are you doing?
1. New Paper
"Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls in the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence"
by me, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir
"Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls in the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence"
by me, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir
June 25, 2025 at 1:15 PM
9. And here's the main table:
June 24, 2025 at 2:59 PM
9. And here's the main table:
8. Here's the link to the preprint. Note that there is a long supplementary information document that's a bit hidden on the site.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls for the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence
High-quality war mortality estimates, such as those that were produced for Kosovo, Iraq, and Darfur (1-3) play a critical role in illuminating the human cost of war. During the tumult of war they are,...
www.medrxiv.org
June 24, 2025 at 12:46 PM
8. Here's the link to the preprint. Note that there is a long supplementary information document that's a bit hidden on the site.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
7.
2. Our survey gives the first systematic insight into total mortality — violent and nonviolent — in the war.
3. As conditions deteriorate, nonviolent deaths may soon rise rapidly.
2. Our survey gives the first systematic insight into total mortality — violent and nonviolent — in the war.
3. As conditions deteriorate, nonviolent deaths may soon rise rapidly.
June 24, 2025 at 12:46 PM
7.
2. Our survey gives the first systematic insight into total mortality — violent and nonviolent — in the war.
3. As conditions deteriorate, nonviolent deaths may soon rise rapidly.
2. Our survey gives the first systematic insight into total mortality — violent and nonviolent — in the war.
3. As conditions deteriorate, nonviolent deaths may soon rise rapidly.
6. Interpretation and view toward the future:
1. The GMoH does not capture all deaths but provides an accurate demographic profile of violent deaths.
1. The GMoH does not capture all deaths but provides an accurate demographic profile of violent deaths.
June 24, 2025 at 12:46 PM
6. Interpretation and view toward the future:
1. The GMoH does not capture all deaths but provides an accurate demographic profile of violent deaths.
1. The GMoH does not capture all deaths but provides an accurate demographic profile of violent deaths.
5. Third, we present the first-ever estimate for the number of nonviolent excess deaths: 8,540 (95% Confidence Interval 4,540-12,500). (“Excess” means above the number of deaths predicted to happen without the war).
June 24, 2025 at 12:46 PM
5. Third, we present the first-ever estimate for the number of nonviolent excess deaths: 8,540 (95% Confidence Interval 4,540-12,500). (“Excess” means above the number of deaths predicted to happen without the war).
4. Second, the detailed GMoH lists of October 2024 and March 2025 put the percentage of women, children (< 18) and elderly (> 64) at, respectively, 57.2% and 53.9%, compared to our central estimate of 56.2% (95% CI 50.4% to 61.9%).
June 24, 2025 at 12:46 PM
4. Second, the detailed GMoH lists of October 2024 and March 2025 put the percentage of women, children (< 18) and elderly (> 64) at, respectively, 57.2% and 53.9%, compared to our central estimate of 56.2% (95% CI 50.4% to 61.9%).
3. First, our violent death estimate is 75,200 (95% CI 63,600 to 86,800). The comparable figure for the Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH) is 45,650, roughly 39% below our central estimate of 75,200 and 28% below the lower bound of our 95% confidence interval of 63,600.
June 24, 2025 at 12:46 PM
3. First, our violent death estimate is 75,200 (95% CI 63,600 to 86,800). The comparable figure for the Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH) is 45,650, roughly 39% below our central estimate of 75,200 and 28% below the lower bound of our 95% confidence interval of 63,600.
2. It is a household based survey of the Gaza Strip to measure both the violent and nonviolent death toll in the war. Field work was conducted between December 30, 2024 and January 5 2025.
There are 3 main take homes.
There are 3 main take homes.
June 24, 2025 at 12:46 PM
2. It is a household based survey of the Gaza Strip to measure both the violent and nonviolent death toll in the war. Field work was conducted between December 30, 2024 and January 5 2025.
There are 3 main take homes.
There are 3 main take homes.
Sounds like a great book.
May 22, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Sounds like a great book.