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a Rossby wave packet for early December (signal for renewed blocking)
With the MJO continuing east and the likelihood of further +ve AAM in the context of a weak sPV, blocking regimes are far more likely through December vs the usual zonal weather patterns.
With the MJO continuing east and the likelihood of further +ve AAM in the context of a weak sPV, blocking regimes are far more likely through December vs the usual zonal weather patterns.
November 11, 2025 at 3:36 PM
a Rossby wave packet for early December (signal for renewed blocking)
With the MJO continuing east and the likelihood of further +ve AAM in the context of a weak sPV, blocking regimes are far more likely through December vs the usual zonal weather patterns.
With the MJO continuing east and the likelihood of further +ve AAM in the context of a weak sPV, blocking regimes are far more likely through December vs the usual zonal weather patterns.
The strong +EAMT event led to a Pacific Jet extension generating a Rossby Wave packet (next weeks block) this will relax and we’re now seeing a Pacific jet retraction (signal for the block to drift west), another +EAMT will generate another Pacific jet extension generating..
November 11, 2025 at 3:36 PM
The strong +EAMT event led to a Pacific Jet extension generating a Rossby Wave packet (next weeks block) this will relax and we’re now seeing a Pacific jet retraction (signal for the block to drift west), another +EAMT will generate another Pacific jet extension generating..
Modelling is certainly struggling at the moment, today’s EC46 comes tantalisingly close to a minor reversal!
November 5, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Modelling is certainly struggling at the moment, today’s EC46 comes tantalisingly close to a minor reversal!
Following up with this - Todays EC46 has slightly trended away from the idea.
November 4, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Following up with this - Todays EC46 has slightly trended away from the idea.
Thank you really informative! Hadn’t realised models were overconfident in the Pacific Trough regime!
November 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Thank you really informative! Hadn’t realised models were overconfident in the Pacific Trough regime!
I'd be interested to hear @simonleewx.com's thoughts!
November 4, 2025 at 9:05 AM
I'd be interested to hear @simonleewx.com's thoughts!
The likelihood of a major SSW remains low however but the trend has been to weaken u-wind speeds further so it's definitely not something I'd rule out.
The warming appears to originate over Canada which makes these potentially even rarer. Strong eQBO and -IOD certainly having an impact here.
The warming appears to originate over Canada which makes these potentially even rarer. Strong eQBO and -IOD certainly having an impact here.
November 4, 2025 at 9:04 AM
The likelihood of a major SSW remains low however but the trend has been to weaken u-wind speeds further so it's definitely not something I'd rule out.
The warming appears to originate over Canada which makes these potentially even rarer. Strong eQBO and -IOD certainly having an impact here.
The warming appears to originate over Canada which makes these potentially even rarer. Strong eQBO and -IOD certainly having an impact here.