Juraj Medzihorsky
@medzihorsky.bsky.social
Assistant Professor in Social Data Science at Durham U · Project Manager at V-Dem · Previously at LSE Methodology and U of Gothenburg · CEU PhD
Hommage to Richard Prince.
Took the Banana way more attempts than one would hope. QR code blurred.
Took the Banana way more attempts than one would hope. QR code blurred.
November 24, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Hommage to Richard Prince.
Took the Banana way more attempts than one would hope. QR code blurred.
Took the Banana way more attempts than one would hope. QR code blurred.
And the bonanza continues with a Nov poll by FOCUS. At this rate, Ipsos will release theirs this afternoon.
The far-right Republika (ESN) is where the pollsters differ the most. Back in '23, it was AKO who got the last-minute flow from R to Smer that ended up with R outside of the parliament.
The far-right Republika (ESN) is where the pollsters differ the most. Back in '23, it was AKO who got the last-minute flow from R to Smer that ended up with R outside of the parliament.
November 21, 2025 at 9:32 AM
And the bonanza continues with a Nov poll by FOCUS. At this rate, Ipsos will release theirs this afternoon.
The far-right Republika (ESN) is where the pollsters differ the most. Back in '23, it was AKO who got the last-minute flow from R to Smer that ended up with R outside of the parliament.
The far-right Republika (ESN) is where the pollsters differ the most. Back in '23, it was AKO who got the last-minute flow from R to Smer that ended up with R outside of the parliament.
Though the pollsters mostly agree on Mr Fico's Smer, they differ--sometimes widely--on Republika, towards which Smer seems to have bled a noticeable chunk of its 2023 voters.
Regardless, Smer and Hlas continue on the downwards trend that began shortly after the assassination attempt on Mr Fico
3/n
Regardless, Smer and Hlas continue on the downwards trend that began shortly after the assassination attempt on Mr Fico
3/n
November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Though the pollsters mostly agree on Mr Fico's Smer, they differ--sometimes widely--on Republika, towards which Smer seems to have bled a noticeable chunk of its 2023 voters.
Regardless, Smer and Hlas continue on the downwards trend that began shortly after the assassination attempt on Mr Fico
3/n
Regardless, Smer and Hlas continue on the downwards trend that began shortly after the assassination attempt on Mr Fico
3/n
Under these vote %s, all at least somewhat viable hypothetical gov't coalitions need KDH (EPP).
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November 20, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Under these vote %s, all at least somewhat viable hypothetical gov't coalitions need KDH (EPP).
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🇸🇰 polling bonanza continues with a Nov poll by AKO. Mr Fico's coalition plus Republika (ESN) again < 40%.
KDH (EPP) keeps hang not far above the threshold, but its coalition prospects may be improving.
The center/-right oppo bloc PS SaS D reaching towards a parl majority with KDH (EPP).
1/n
KDH (EPP) keeps hang not far above the threshold, but its coalition prospects may be improving.
The center/-right oppo bloc PS SaS D reaching towards a parl majority with KDH (EPP).
1/n
November 20, 2025 at 6:14 PM
🇸🇰 polling bonanza continues with a Nov poll by AKO. Mr Fico's coalition plus Republika (ESN) again < 40%.
KDH (EPP) keeps hang not far above the threshold, but its coalition prospects may be improving.
The center/-right oppo bloc PS SaS D reaching towards a parl majority with KDH (EPP).
1/n
KDH (EPP) keeps hang not far above the threshold, but its coalition prospects may be improving.
The center/-right oppo bloc PS SaS D reaching towards a parl majority with KDH (EPP).
1/n
Mr Fico's gov't coalition plus its potential ally, the extra-parliamentary Republika (ESN), got two of its lowest aggregate support estimates in October and November polls by the state-owned Infostat, <40%. This chiefly due to Republika doing worse than in other polls. OTOH, KDH (EPP) did better.
November 20, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Mr Fico's gov't coalition plus its potential ally, the extra-parliamentary Republika (ESN), got two of its lowest aggregate support estimates in October and November polls by the state-owned Infostat, <40%. This chiefly due to Republika doing worse than in other polls. OTOH, KDH (EPP) did better.
UEFA's new Visegrád 4 is ... surprising. And then there's the almost Balkans pot, if not for Ireland.
November 19, 2025 at 1:14 PM
UEFA's new Visegrád 4 is ... surprising. And then there's the almost Balkans pot, if not for Ireland.
Recent Ipsos analysis estimates that Republika now has about as many of the '23 voters of the gov't coalition as its own '23 voters.
4/n
4/n
November 12, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Recent Ipsos analysis estimates that Republika now has about as many of the '23 voters of the gov't coalition as its own '23 voters.
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4/n
The center-/right bloc PS (RE) SaS (ECR) D (EPP) not breaking its record numbers, though D now more often above the 5% threshold.
3/n
3/n
November 12, 2025 at 3:19 PM
The center-/right bloc PS (RE) SaS (ECR) D (EPP) not breaking its record numbers, though D now more often above the 5% threshold.
3/n
3/n
Declining Smer and Hlas, buoyant Republika.
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2/n
November 12, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Declining Smer and Hlas, buoyant Republika.
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2/n
November poll by NMS finds Mr Fico's gov't coalition at its lowest numbers in office and the extra-parliamentary Republika (ESN) at its highest yet.
As the gov't coalition continues its move far right, some estimate suggest a chunk of their 2023 voters moves even further to the far right.
1/n
As the gov't coalition continues its move far right, some estimate suggest a chunk of their 2023 voters moves even further to the far right.
1/n
November 12, 2025 at 3:11 PM
November poll by NMS finds Mr Fico's gov't coalition at its lowest numbers in office and the extra-parliamentary Republika (ESN) at its highest yet.
As the gov't coalition continues its move far right, some estimate suggest a chunk of their 2023 voters moves even further to the far right.
1/n
As the gov't coalition continues its move far right, some estimate suggest a chunk of their 2023 voters moves even further to the far right.
1/n
A rear view mirror image of the blip that launched Mr Matovič to become Slovakia's PM over five years ago.
November 11, 2025 at 10:32 AM
A rear view mirror image of the blip that launched Mr Matovič to become Slovakia's PM over five years ago.
One of those co-incidences: the top of the 8 Nov entry on Wikipedia's notable deaths list
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_...
![A screenshot of the following text on Wikipedia:
8
Mohammad Aftab Alam, 63, Nepali politician and convicted murderer, MP (1997–2002, 2018–2019).[1]
Antasari Azhar, 72, Indonesian politician and convicted murderer, chairman of the Corruption Eradication Commission (2007–2009).[2]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:e4zmgx4h2lfistppwfeabtbl/bafkreiaoddxg6c4xspi4z2krld2qeb74qnpic3gk53bli37xq3wk46e45i@jpeg)
November 8, 2025 at 8:47 PM
One of those co-incidences: the top of the 8 Nov entry on Wikipedia's notable deaths list
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_...
Incomplete use-case overlap though
November 8, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Incomplete use-case overlap though
The data: this crosstab by the EP.
More details on the survey: Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025) europa.eu/eurobaromete...
2/2
More details on the survey: Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025) europa.eu/eurobaromete...
2/2
November 7, 2025 at 10:53 AM
The data: this crosstab by the EP.
More details on the survey: Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025) europa.eu/eurobaromete...
2/2
More details on the survey: Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025) europa.eu/eurobaromete...
2/2
Public health, jobs, cost of living, and poverty [🇵🇹🇧🇬🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪🇪🇸🇬🇷🇨🇾🇷🇴🇸🇰🇸🇮🇭🇷🇭🇺]
vs.
climate change, terrorism, gender equality, migration and democracy [🇸🇪🇩🇰🇳🇱🇩🇪🇫🇮]
cross-country variation in emphasis on priorities for the European Parliament in Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025).
1/2
vs.
climate change, terrorism, gender equality, migration and democracy [🇸🇪🇩🇰🇳🇱🇩🇪🇫🇮]
cross-country variation in emphasis on priorities for the European Parliament in Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025).
1/2
November 7, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Public health, jobs, cost of living, and poverty [🇵🇹🇧🇬🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪🇪🇸🇬🇷🇨🇾🇷🇴🇸🇰🇸🇮🇭🇷🇭🇺]
vs.
climate change, terrorism, gender equality, migration and democracy [🇸🇪🇩🇰🇳🇱🇩🇪🇫🇮]
cross-country variation in emphasis on priorities for the European Parliament in Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025).
1/2
vs.
climate change, terrorism, gender equality, migration and democracy [🇸🇪🇩🇰🇳🇱🇩🇪🇫🇮]
cross-country variation in emphasis on priorities for the European Parliament in Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025).
1/2
Indeed.
One wonders whether the coalition parties did this assuming that in an aging society, and them being a bit stronger than the opposition is with the older cohorts, some members of their core voter groups may even appreciate it.
Still, it fits well with the tradition of clumsy lawmaking.
One wonders whether the coalition parties did this assuming that in an aging society, and them being a bit stronger than the opposition is with the older cohorts, some members of their core voter groups may even appreciate it.
Still, it fits well with the tradition of clumsy lawmaking.
October 28, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Indeed.
One wonders whether the coalition parties did this assuming that in an aging society, and them being a bit stronger than the opposition is with the older cohorts, some members of their core voter groups may even appreciate it.
Still, it fits well with the tradition of clumsy lawmaking.
One wonders whether the coalition parties did this assuming that in an aging society, and them being a bit stronger than the opposition is with the older cohorts, some members of their core voter groups may even appreciate it.
Still, it fits well with the tradition of clumsy lawmaking.
Why complicate things? The US immigration record from 1878 lists the young philosopher Tomáš Masaryk, the future president of Czechoslovakia Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk, simply as a doctor. By the way, the ship was named Herder.
October 28, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Why complicate things? The US immigration record from 1878 lists the young philosopher Tomáš Masaryk, the future president of Czechoslovakia Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk, simply as a doctor. By the way, the ship was named Herder.
The current AKO and FOCUS estimates don't show clear paths to a within-bloc coalition gov't. Even the relatively less difficult, but still difficult, options such as KDH (EPP) joining the social-national bloc, or Hlas joining the center/-right bloc of PS (RE) SaS (ECR) and D (EPP).
2/n
2/n
October 24, 2025 at 7:41 PM
The current AKO and FOCUS estimates don't show clear paths to a within-bloc coalition gov't. Even the relatively less difficult, but still difficult, options such as KDH (EPP) joining the social-national bloc, or Hlas joining the center/-right bloc of PS (RE) SaS (ECR) and D (EPP).
2/n
2/n
Another October poll from Slovakia, this one by AKO, with collection on 8-17 Oct. Again, broadly on trends.
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October 24, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Another October poll from Slovakia, this one by AKO, with collection on 8-17 Oct. Again, broadly on trends.
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The clearest paths to a majority are cross-bloc coalitions:
Top: KDH (EPP) joining the social-national bloc
Bottom: Hlas (NI) joining the center/-right bloc sans KDH
3/N
Top: KDH (EPP) joining the social-national bloc
Bottom: Hlas (NI) joining the center/-right bloc sans KDH
3/N
October 23, 2025 at 3:05 PM
The clearest paths to a majority are cross-bloc coalitions:
Top: KDH (EPP) joining the social-national bloc
Bottom: Hlas (NI) joining the center/-right bloc sans KDH
3/N
Top: KDH (EPP) joining the social-national bloc
Bottom: Hlas (NI) joining the center/-right bloc sans KDH
3/N
Neither bloc with a clear path to a majority, despite several recent polls placing the opposition Demokrati (EPP) above the 5% entry threshold.
2/N
2/N
October 23, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Neither bloc with a clear path to a majority, despite several recent polls placing the opposition Demokrati (EPP) above the 5% entry threshold.
2/N
2/N
October polls by Ipsos and Focus find Mr Fico's gov't coalition on its downward trend that's been visible since the time of the assassination attempt on Mr Fico.
1/N
1/N
October 23, 2025 at 2:15 PM
October polls by Ipsos and Focus find Mr Fico's gov't coalition on its downward trend that's been visible since the time of the assassination attempt on Mr Fico.
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Today is the last day of the year and the 52-year cycle of the Aztec solar calendar.*
Tomorrow, a new cycle begins with year One Rabbit:
"One Rabbit was always associated with disaster; there was even an old saying, “We were really one rabbited,”" (Townsend 2019)
* per Caso-Nicholson's alignment
Tomorrow, a new cycle begins with year One Rabbit:
"One Rabbit was always associated with disaster; there was even an old saying, “We were really one rabbited,”" (Townsend 2019)
* per Caso-Nicholson's alignment
October 22, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Today is the last day of the year and the 52-year cycle of the Aztec solar calendar.*
Tomorrow, a new cycle begins with year One Rabbit:
"One Rabbit was always associated with disaster; there was even an old saying, “We were really one rabbited,”" (Townsend 2019)
* per Caso-Nicholson's alignment
Tomorrow, a new cycle begins with year One Rabbit:
"One Rabbit was always associated with disaster; there was even an old saying, “We were really one rabbited,”" (Townsend 2019)
* per Caso-Nicholson's alignment