Matt Cerminaro
@mattcerminaro.bsky.social
Posts ≠ Financial Advice ➢ Opinions expressed are solely my own.
Thoughts are things. Choose the good ones.
Thoughts are things. Choose the good ones.
We are seeing capitulatory, bear market low type oversold readings in the middle of a strong bull market.
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
December 20, 2024 at 2:49 PM
We are seeing capitulatory, bear market low type oversold readings in the middle of a strong bull market.
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
🐂The avg bull market has 8 5% pullbacks.
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
December 12, 2024 at 11:29 PM
🐂The avg bull market has 8 5% pullbacks.
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
This one is interesting.
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
December 11, 2024 at 4:35 PM
This one is interesting.
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
The NASDAQ is -0.50% today.
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
December 9, 2024 at 4:54 PM
The NASDAQ is -0.50% today.
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
Everybody tells us the "market is narrow"
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
December 4, 2024 at 4:26 PM
Everybody tells us the "market is narrow"
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
December 2, 2024 at 9:47 PM
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation.
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
November 26, 2024 at 5:48 PM
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation.
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
The breakout in equities is supported by strong breadth.
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
November 26, 2024 at 4:54 PM
The breakout in equities is supported by strong breadth.
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
These are sector total returns YTD.
4 Sectors +30% YTD.
Financials leading the pack.
The "it's all the Mag7" narrative is dead.
👇
4 Sectors +30% YTD.
Financials leading the pack.
The "it's all the Mag7" narrative is dead.
👇
November 25, 2024 at 9:41 PM
These are sector total returns YTD.
4 Sectors +30% YTD.
Financials leading the pack.
The "it's all the Mag7" narrative is dead.
👇
4 Sectors +30% YTD.
Financials leading the pack.
The "it's all the Mag7" narrative is dead.
👇
I did this one for @bencarlson007.bsky.social a few weeks back showing the difference between S&P 500 price (left) vs S&P 500 forward P/E (right).
➡️Stocks continue to hit new cycle highs
➡️While valuations remains below cycle highs.
Bottom line: Stocks are cheaper now vs 2020.
👇
➡️Stocks continue to hit new cycle highs
➡️While valuations remains below cycle highs.
Bottom line: Stocks are cheaper now vs 2020.
👇
November 25, 2024 at 5:26 PM
I did this one for @bencarlson007.bsky.social a few weeks back showing the difference between S&P 500 price (left) vs S&P 500 forward P/E (right).
➡️Stocks continue to hit new cycle highs
➡️While valuations remains below cycle highs.
Bottom line: Stocks are cheaper now vs 2020.
👇
➡️Stocks continue to hit new cycle highs
➡️While valuations remains below cycle highs.
Bottom line: Stocks are cheaper now vs 2020.
👇