Matt Cerminaro
@mattcerminaro.bsky.social
Posts ≠ Financial Advice ➢ Opinions expressed are solely my own.
Thoughts are things. Choose the good ones.
Thoughts are things. Choose the good ones.
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
At what point do 7%+ mortgage rates and a lack of housing activity become a big problem for the economy?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/is-t...
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/is-t...
January 11, 2025 at 2:16 PM
At what point do 7%+ mortgage rates and a lack of housing activity become a big problem for the economy?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/is-t...
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/is-t...
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
The Best Books I Read in 2024 - A Wealth of Common Sense
My annual list of books read.
awealthofcommonsense.com
December 26, 2024 at 4:04 PM
We are seeing capitulatory, bear market low type oversold readings in the middle of a strong bull market.
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
December 20, 2024 at 2:49 PM
We are seeing capitulatory, bear market low type oversold readings in the middle of a strong bull market.
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
Look at this metric:
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5%
- % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9%
👇
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
Can't lie we went crazy on the show tonight. Now live, let us know what you think
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_...
Is Nvidia Under Siege in 2025? | WAYT?
YouTube video by The Compound
www.youtube.com
December 18, 2024 at 12:07 AM
Can't lie we went crazy on the show tonight. Now live, let us know what you think
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_...
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️ www.tker.co/p/valuations...
A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️
Plus a charted review of the macro crosscurrents 🔀
www.tker.co
December 15, 2024 at 2:11 PM
A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️ www.tker.co/p/valuations...
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and Head of the Global Allocation Team, overseeing roughly $2.4T in assets.
Just don’t call him a Bond King.
Brand new epic edition of The Compound and Friends. We love you, Merry Christmas 🎄
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/is...
Just don’t call him a Bond King.
Brand new epic edition of The Compound and Friends. We love you, Merry Christmas 🎄
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/is...
Is Rick Rieder a Bond King?
On episode 169 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Rick Rieder , Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income and …
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com
December 13, 2024 at 12:21 PM
Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and Head of the Global Allocation Team, overseeing roughly $2.4T in assets.
Just don’t call him a Bond King.
Brand new epic edition of The Compound and Friends. We love you, Merry Christmas 🎄
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/is...
Just don’t call him a Bond King.
Brand new epic edition of The Compound and Friends. We love you, Merry Christmas 🎄
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/is...
🐂The avg bull market has 8 5% pullbacks.
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
December 12, 2024 at 11:29 PM
🐂The avg bull market has 8 5% pullbacks.
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run.
Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends.
👇
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
It's Forecast SZN on Wall Street and every firm has their S&P 500 target for 2025. Strategists are expecting a gain of somewhere between 7% and 17%. But allow me to blow your mind: The average gain for stocks in an up year over the last hundred years is actually +21%! @bencarlson007.bsky.social
December 11, 2024 at 2:28 PM
It's Forecast SZN on Wall Street and every firm has their S&P 500 target for 2025. Strategists are expecting a gain of somewhere between 7% and 17%. But allow me to blow your mind: The average gain for stocks in an up year over the last hundred years is actually +21%! @bencarlson007.bsky.social
This one is interesting.
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
December 11, 2024 at 4:35 PM
This one is interesting.
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
- Blue bars are sector returns YTD
- Red dots are avg return of stock within sector
- Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector.
The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply.
👇
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
The 4 types of investment mistakes:
1. Annoying mistakes (investing in underperforming funds)
2. Self-inflicted mistakes (high fees, over-trading, etc)
3. Painful mistakes (sell at the bottom of a bear market)
4. Endgame mistakes (fraud, losing it all)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
1. Annoying mistakes (investing in underperforming funds)
2. Self-inflicted mistakes (high fees, over-trading, etc)
3. Painful mistakes (sell at the bottom of a bear market)
4. Endgame mistakes (fraud, losing it all)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
The 4 Types of Investment Mistakes - A Wealth of Common Sense
The hierarchy of investment mistakes.
awealthofcommonsense.com
December 9, 2024 at 2:42 PM
The 4 types of investment mistakes:
1. Annoying mistakes (investing in underperforming funds)
2. Self-inflicted mistakes (high fees, over-trading, etc)
3. Painful mistakes (sell at the bottom of a bear market)
4. Endgame mistakes (fraud, losing it all)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
1. Annoying mistakes (investing in underperforming funds)
2. Self-inflicted mistakes (high fees, over-trading, etc)
3. Painful mistakes (sell at the bottom of a bear market)
4. Endgame mistakes (fraud, losing it all)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
Five charts you need to see for 2025 ⬇️⬇️⬇️
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
December 9, 2024 at 10:42 PM
Five charts you need to see for 2025 ⬇️⬇️⬇️
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years
Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990
But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily.
Big gains happen more often than you think.
The NASDAQ is -0.50% today.
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
December 9, 2024 at 4:54 PM
The NASDAQ is -0.50% today.
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
But the internals paint a rosier picture.
- 55% of stocks are advancing in the index.
Not as "risk off" within.
👇
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
Why did BlackRock spend $12 billion to acquire a private equity firm last week? I can explain it in a single chart. If you were the CEO of a large asset management firm, you would do the same thing.
via Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
via Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
December 9, 2024 at 12:25 PM
Why did BlackRock spend $12 billion to acquire a private equity firm last week? I can explain it in a single chart. If you were the CEO of a large asset management firm, you would do the same thing.
via Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
via Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
NEW🚨: Ben with Benefits by @bencarlson007.bsky.social
Highly recommend giving this a listen 🎧
👇
youtu.be/oqzryxsLp64?...
Highly recommend giving this a listen 🎧
👇
youtu.be/oqzryxsLp64?...
Advisors Face an $80 Trillion Tidal Wave as 10,000 Clients Retire Every Day
YouTube video by The Unlock
youtu.be
December 6, 2024 at 8:23 PM
NEW🚨: Ben with Benefits by @bencarlson007.bsky.social
Highly recommend giving this a listen 🎧
👇
youtu.be/oqzryxsLp64?...
Highly recommend giving this a listen 🎧
👇
youtu.be/oqzryxsLp64?...
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
Peter Boockvar on The Compound and Friends today!
Contrarian investing ideas from one of my favorite people on Wall Street
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...
Contrarian investing ideas from one of my favorite people on Wall Street
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...
December 6, 2024 at 3:31 PM
Peter Boockvar on The Compound and Friends today!
Contrarian investing ideas from one of my favorite people on Wall Street
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...
Contrarian investing ideas from one of my favorite people on Wall Street
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...
Everybody tells us the "market is narrow"
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
December 4, 2024 at 4:26 PM
Everybody tells us the "market is narrow"
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
That's just not true.
I brought the data. In 2H 2024:
- The S&P 500 is +11.8%
- But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7%
So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%.
Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this.
👇
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
The reason we are less susceptible to recession when rates rise in the modern era is because we’re a services economy. Which means inventory back-ups don’t result in mass layoffs anymore.
Manufacturing has fallen from 20% to 10% of US GDP over the last 50 years.
@mattcerminaro.bsky.social:
Manufacturing has fallen from 20% to 10% of US GDP over the last 50 years.
@mattcerminaro.bsky.social:
December 4, 2024 at 1:07 PM
The reason we are less susceptible to recession when rates rise in the modern era is because we’re a services economy. Which means inventory back-ups don’t result in mass layoffs anymore.
Manufacturing has fallen from 20% to 10% of US GDP over the last 50 years.
@mattcerminaro.bsky.social:
Manufacturing has fallen from 20% to 10% of US GDP over the last 50 years.
@mattcerminaro.bsky.social:
December 2, 2024 at 9:47 PM
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
November 28, 2024 at 9:20 PM
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation.
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
November 26, 2024 at 5:48 PM
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation.
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
The stock market is now the driving force behind inflation. Hilarious given that the stock market has been rallying because inflation has come down.
You can’t make this up 😂
You can’t make this up 😂
The entire acceleration was driven by a 3.5% m/m (sa) jump in portfolio management fees, which contributed 5.2bps to headline and 5.8bps to core inflation in October, up from effectively zero in September.
November 27, 2024 at 3:43 PM
The stock market is now the driving force behind inflation. Hilarious given that the stock market has been rallying because inflation has come down.
You can’t make this up 😂
You can’t make this up 😂
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
Consumer confidence is surging at a peculiar time
Yes, the economy is under a lot of pressure and rates are high across the board, but some combo of Fed cuts/politics/momentum has suddenly made Americans more optimistic about the future...
Yes, the economy is under a lot of pressure and rates are high across the board, but some combo of Fed cuts/politics/momentum has suddenly made Americans more optimistic about the future...
November 26, 2024 at 6:23 PM
Consumer confidence is surging at a peculiar time
Yes, the economy is under a lot of pressure and rates are high across the board, but some combo of Fed cuts/politics/momentum has suddenly made Americans more optimistic about the future...
Yes, the economy is under a lot of pressure and rates are high across the board, but some combo of Fed cuts/politics/momentum has suddenly made Americans more optimistic about the future...
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation.
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
November 26, 2024 at 5:48 PM
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation.
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year.
👇
The breakout in equities is supported by strong breadth.
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
November 26, 2024 at 4:54 PM
The breakout in equities is supported by strong breadth.
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
- New high in S&P 500 price
- New high in S&P 500 breadth
No divergence there.
✅ for bulls.
👇
Reposted by Matt Cerminaro
Michael Saylor when MSTR's market cap hits $47 trillion.
November 26, 2024 at 1:45 PM
Michael Saylor when MSTR's market cap hits $47 trillion.