Semih Çakır
@mascakir.bsky.social
Political scientist at University of Vienna. Previously at University of Montreal - I study polarisation, partisanship and democratic citizenship.
www.semihcakir.com
www.semihcakir.com
Thank you Jennifer!
November 20, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Thank you Jennifer!
Thank you and glad you love it!
November 19, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Thank you and glad you love it!
Congratulations! 🎉 Looking forward to the outputs already!
November 19, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Congratulations! 🎉 Looking forward to the outputs already!
Full article (OPEN ACCESS):
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences? | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences?
www.cambridge.org
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Full article (OPEN ACCESS):
So what's the takeaway?
✅Good news: Voters and non-voters usually share similar policy preferences.
⚠️Bad news: When turnout is low, even small differences can introduce bias.
🗳️Overall: Low turnout isn't always a disaster for this specific question, but it is far from ideal.
10/10
✅Good news: Voters and non-voters usually share similar policy preferences.
⚠️Bad news: When turnout is low, even small differences can introduce bias.
🗳️Overall: Low turnout isn't always a disaster for this specific question, but it is far from ideal.
10/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
So what's the takeaway?
✅Good news: Voters and non-voters usually share similar policy preferences.
⚠️Bad news: When turnout is low, even small differences can introduce bias.
🗳️Overall: Low turnout isn't always a disaster for this specific question, but it is far from ideal.
10/10
✅Good news: Voters and non-voters usually share similar policy preferences.
⚠️Bad news: When turnout is low, even small differences can introduce bias.
🗳️Overall: Low turnout isn't always a disaster for this specific question, but it is far from ideal.
10/10
When turnout is low, the electorate reflects regular voters' preferences.
Higher turnout brings peripheral voters into the mix and reduces this bias.
Perpetual non-voters also differ, but they are usually a smaller group, so they introduce less bias overall.
9/10
Higher turnout brings peripheral voters into the mix and reduces this bias.
Perpetual non-voters also differ, but they are usually a smaller group, so they introduce less bias overall.
9/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
When turnout is low, the electorate reflects regular voters' preferences.
Higher turnout brings peripheral voters into the mix and reduces this bias.
Perpetual non-voters also differ, but they are usually a smaller group, so they introduce less bias overall.
9/10
Higher turnout brings peripheral voters into the mix and reduces this bias.
Perpetual non-voters also differ, but they are usually a smaller group, so they introduce less bias overall.
9/10
Moreover, using panel data from the UK (@britishelectionstudy.com), I examine policy preferences of three voter types:
1️⃣Regular voters: they vote consistently
2️⃣Peripheral voters: they vote intermittently
3️⃣Perpetual non-voters: they almost never vote
They differ in their policy preferences. 8/10
1️⃣Regular voters: they vote consistently
2️⃣Peripheral voters: they vote intermittently
3️⃣Perpetual non-voters: they almost never vote
They differ in their policy preferences. 8/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Moreover, using panel data from the UK (@britishelectionstudy.com), I examine policy preferences of three voter types:
1️⃣Regular voters: they vote consistently
2️⃣Peripheral voters: they vote intermittently
3️⃣Perpetual non-voters: they almost never vote
They differ in their policy preferences. 8/10
1️⃣Regular voters: they vote consistently
2️⃣Peripheral voters: they vote intermittently
3️⃣Perpetual non-voters: they almost never vote
They differ in their policy preferences. 8/10
Bias that disparities induce ultimately depends on turnout level. Biases are stronger when turnout is lower.
This is also why compulsory voting might make sense! 7/10
This is also why compulsory voting might make sense! 7/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Bias that disparities induce ultimately depends on turnout level. Biases are stronger when turnout is lower.
This is also why compulsory voting might make sense! 7/10
This is also why compulsory voting might make sense! 7/10
Nevertheless, when differences *do* emerge, they are not trivial.
Using Cohen's d, most significant differences (in black) can be considered small but meaningful. 6/10
Using Cohen's d, most significant differences (in black) can be considered small but meaningful. 6/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Nevertheless, when differences *do* emerge, they are not trivial.
Using Cohen's d, most significant differences (in black) can be considered small but meaningful. 6/10
Using Cohen's d, most significant differences (in black) can be considered small but meaningful. 6/10
But, here's the thing: Disparities are not the norm.
At the survey level, voters and non-voters usually hold similar policy views. Most differences are sporadic and do not reach statistical significance. 5/10
At the survey level, voters and non-voters usually hold similar policy views. Most differences are sporadic and do not reach statistical significance. 5/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
But, here's the thing: Disparities are not the norm.
At the survey level, voters and non-voters usually hold similar policy views. Most differences are sporadic and do not reach statistical significance. 5/10
At the survey level, voters and non-voters usually hold similar policy views. Most differences are sporadic and do not reach statistical significance. 5/10
In the pooled analysis, voters are:
🔵 more right-wing
🔵 less in favour of redistribution
🔵 more supportive of state intervention and spending
🔵 less supportive of same-sex marriage
🔵 more restrictive on immigration
🔵 more willing to restrict privacy rights to combat crimes
🔵 more pro-Europe
4/10
🔵 more right-wing
🔵 less in favour of redistribution
🔵 more supportive of state intervention and spending
🔵 less supportive of same-sex marriage
🔵 more restrictive on immigration
🔵 more willing to restrict privacy rights to combat crimes
🔵 more pro-Europe
4/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
In the pooled analysis, voters are:
🔵 more right-wing
🔵 less in favour of redistribution
🔵 more supportive of state intervention and spending
🔵 less supportive of same-sex marriage
🔵 more restrictive on immigration
🔵 more willing to restrict privacy rights to combat crimes
🔵 more pro-Europe
4/10
🔵 more right-wing
🔵 less in favour of redistribution
🔵 more supportive of state intervention and spending
🔵 less supportive of same-sex marriage
🔵 more restrictive on immigration
🔵 more willing to restrict privacy rights to combat crimes
🔵 more pro-Europe
4/10
Using data from 29 European democracies, I examine differences across the left-right spectrum, economic issues (redistribution, state intervention, spending), social issues (immigration, same-sex marriage, environment, and civil liberties), and European integration.
3/10
3/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Using data from 29 European democracies, I examine differences across the left-right spectrum, economic issues (redistribution, state intervention, spending), social issues (immigration, same-sex marriage, environment, and civil liberties), and European integration.
3/10
3/10
First, why do we care?
Turnout has declined across democracies. If voters and non-voters have different policy preferences, then low turnout means elections may not accurately represent what the broader public wants. This would be problematic for representation.
2/10
Turnout has declined across democracies. If voters and non-voters have different policy preferences, then low turnout means elections may not accurately represent what the broader public wants. This would be problematic for representation.
2/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
First, why do we care?
Turnout has declined across democracies. If voters and non-voters have different policy preferences, then low turnout means elections may not accurately represent what the broader public wants. This would be problematic for representation.
2/10
Turnout has declined across democracies. If voters and non-voters have different policy preferences, then low turnout means elections may not accurately represent what the broader public wants. This would be problematic for representation.
2/10
September 15, 2025 at 1:59 AM