Martha Gimbel
@marthagimbel.bsky.social
Sometimes Econ, sometimes rants, sometimes both. Current Budget Lab at Yale, former CEA, JEC, DOL, SF, Indeed.
Just so the Econ crew is aware - the homeowner here is Leo Feler
In a wealthy neighborhood in Chicago, immigration agents hopped the fence of a US citizen’s home and tried to pull a construction worker out a 2nd-story window. Homeowner came home to blood all over his house. www.msnbc.com/the-weekend-...
'Jarring, frightening attack': Chicago homeowner describes immigration raid at his home
MSNBC exclusively obtained security footage of federal agents targeting construction workers at a home in the wealthy Lakeview neighborhood of Chicago. Leo Feler, who owns the property, joined The Wee...
www.msnbc.com
October 27, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Just so the Econ crew is aware - the homeowner here is Leo Feler
Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity
October 6, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity
New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
3. "Fine, we'll just rely on private data."
(This one is @marthagimbel.bsky.social bait)
There is lots of private data out there, and we'll be leaning on it heavily during a shutdown. But hardly anyone who has looked closely at these data thinks they can come close to replacing government sources.
(This one is @marthagimbel.bsky.social bait)
There is lots of private data out there, and we'll be leaning on it heavily during a shutdown. But hardly anyone who has looked closely at these data thinks they can come close to replacing government sources.
September 30, 2025 at 1:42 PM
3. "Fine, we'll just rely on private data."
(This one is @marthagimbel.bsky.social bait)
There is lots of private data out there, and we'll be leaning on it heavily during a shutdown. But hardly anyone who has looked closely at these data thinks they can come close to replacing government sources.
(This one is @marthagimbel.bsky.social bait)
There is lots of private data out there, and we'll be leaning on it heavily during a shutdown. But hardly anyone who has looked closely at these data thinks they can come close to replacing government sources.
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
We’re excited to officially welcome @chloergibbs.bsky.social and @moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social to the Upjohn Institute research team! Chloe brings deep expertise in education policy, while Monique’s research explores systemic inequality in economic outcomes. #EconSky
Upjohn Institute welcomes two new economists
Chloe Gibbs and Monique Davis join the research team
www.upjohn.org
August 1, 2025 at 2:00 PM
We’re excited to officially welcome @chloergibbs.bsky.social and @moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social to the Upjohn Institute research team! Chloe brings deep expertise in education policy, while Monique’s research explores systemic inequality in economic outcomes. #EconSky
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
Fed Fight: It’s Trump vs Jerome Powell. Why an Independent Fed matters @chafkin.bsky.social and I talk with @marthagimbel.bsky.social this week on Everybody’s Business from @businessweektr.bsky.social @bloomberg.com
#jeromepowell #federalreserve #economy
#jeromepowell #federalreserve #economy
July 20, 2025 at 12:36 AM
Fed Fight: It’s Trump vs Jerome Powell. Why an Independent Fed matters @chafkin.bsky.social and I talk with @marthagimbel.bsky.social this week on Everybody’s Business from @businessweektr.bsky.social @bloomberg.com
#jeromepowell #federalreserve #economy
#jeromepowell #federalreserve #economy
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
cordelia is arguably the first mentally well person in the history of literature
July 10, 2025 at 11:48 PM
cordelia is arguably the first mentally well person in the history of literature
If you’re questioning the integrity of BLS statistics “because ADP” I cannot help you
July 3, 2025 at 2:51 PM
If you’re questioning the integrity of BLS statistics “because ADP” I cannot help you
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
House/Senate are set to eliminate Grad PLUS, and put in place loan limits that would dramatically restrict graduate borrowing. Media coverage emphasizes impact this may have on very expensive programs like Medicine and Dentistry, but @peerresearch.bsky.social finds impact will be much(!) broader 1/
July 2, 2025 at 3:25 PM
House/Senate are set to eliminate Grad PLUS, and put in place loan limits that would dramatically restrict graduate borrowing. Media coverage emphasizes impact this may have on very expensive programs like Medicine and Dentistry, but @peerresearch.bsky.social finds impact will be much(!) broader 1/
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
Scratching my head at the CEA estimate that their economic plan will lower debt/GDP by at least 3pp in FY 2025.
There are only 3 months left in FY 2025.
And tariff revenue < 0.5% of GDP. So would need about 12% annualized GDP growth in Q3 to hit this target.
There are only 3 months left in FY 2025.
And tariff revenue < 0.5% of GDP. So would need about 12% annualized GDP growth in Q3 to hit this target.
June 25, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Scratching my head at the CEA estimate that their economic plan will lower debt/GDP by at least 3pp in FY 2025.
There are only 3 months left in FY 2025.
And tariff revenue < 0.5% of GDP. So would need about 12% annualized GDP growth in Q3 to hit this target.
There are only 3 months left in FY 2025.
And tariff revenue < 0.5% of GDP. So would need about 12% annualized GDP growth in Q3 to hit this target.
CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/
June 17, 2025 at 7:51 PM
CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit.
1/3
1/3
June 12, 2025 at 5:47 PM
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit.
1/3
1/3
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
Cynthia Erivo just rhymed “Odenkirk and watch Cole werk.” I’m satisfied!
June 9, 2025 at 12:07 AM
Cynthia Erivo just rhymed “Odenkirk and watch Cole werk.” I’m satisfied!
New from @budgetlab.bsky.social: there's been a lot of debate on the macroeconomic impacts of the bill. We find that passing the bill generates SMALL amounts of growth from 2025-2027...but after that it's a drag on growth
June 8, 2025 at 3:07 PM
New from @budgetlab.bsky.social: there's been a lot of debate on the macroeconomic impacts of the bill. We find that passing the bill generates SMALL amounts of growth from 2025-2027...but after that it's a drag on growth
A reminder that today is Tony’s day so if you don’t want theater tweets all night mute me now
June 8, 2025 at 2:16 PM
A reminder that today is Tony’s day so if you don’t want theater tweets all night mute me now
I finally got the email I’ve been expecting for weeks: my baby’s diaper brand is throwing in the towel and raising prices due to “global economic factors and rising material costs”
May 16, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I finally got the email I’ve been expecting for weeks: my baby’s diaper brand is throwing in the towel and raising prices due to “global economic factors and rising material costs”
USA USA USA www.nytimes.com/2025/05/15/h...
Baby Is Healed With World’s First Personalized Gene-Editing Treatment
www.nytimes.com
May 15, 2025 at 7:03 PM
USA USA USA www.nytimes.com/2025/05/15/h...
Everybody stop what you’re doing and read @jasonfurman.bsky.social on why trade is good actually www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/o...
Opinion | Are Trump’s Tariffs Trying to Solve a Problem That Doesn’t Exist?
www.nytimes.com
May 12, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Everybody stop what you’re doing and read @jasonfurman.bsky.social on why trade is good actually www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/o...
Work requirements and price controls - what a Sunday night
May 12, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Work requirements and price controls - what a Sunday night
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
Listen to @budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social on the @theatlantic.com
podcast episode that explores the impact of tariffs and consumer behavior.
podcast episode that explores the impact of tariffs and consumer behavior.
After Trump mused that “maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls” due to tariff effects, @hannarosin.bsky.social spoke with a doll manufacturer and a policy analyst about tariffs and consumer behavior:
How Much Would You Pay for That Doll?
How tariffs may challenge the way you shop
bit.ly
May 8, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Listen to @budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social on the @theatlantic.com
podcast episode that explores the impact of tariffs and consumer behavior.
podcast episode that explores the impact of tariffs and consumer behavior.
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
@budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social and @ernietedeschi.bsky.social in the @nytimes.com
Evidence of Trump's impact is everywhere — except, for the most part, in economic data itself. So forecasters are scouring earnings calls, sifting through obscure indicators and collecting anecdotes to try to suss out where the economy is headed. #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/b...
Recession Warnings Are Everywhere, Except in the Data
www.nytimes.com
May 7, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Has anyone ever pulled together or done (or seen) a task similarity matrix for the O*Net tasks?
Basically - if you have information on a subset of the tasks, has someone done the work to figure out how similar certain tasks are to each other
Basically - if you have information on a subset of the tasks, has someone done the work to figure out how similar certain tasks are to each other
May 5, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Has anyone ever pulled together or done (or seen) a task similarity matrix for the O*Net tasks?
Basically - if you have information on a subset of the tasks, has someone done the work to figure out how similar certain tasks are to each other
Basically - if you have information on a subset of the tasks, has someone done the work to figure out how similar certain tasks are to each other
Reposted by Martha Gimbel
Video of Hutchins Center conversation on safeguarding the stability of the global banking system and the state of bank supervisinon with ECB’s Claudia Buch, Nicolas Veron, and Michael Silva. @brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/events/safeg...
Safeguarding the stability of the global banking system: A conversation with ECB’s Claudia Buch
On April 25, Claudia Buch, chair of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, will speak at Brookings, on safeguarding the stability of the global banking system.
www.brookings.edu
April 26, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Video of Hutchins Center conversation on safeguarding the stability of the global banking system and the state of bank supervisinon with ECB’s Claudia Buch, Nicolas Veron, and Michael Silva. @brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/events/safeg...
So I just picked up the phone and got hit with a new scam: someone tried to tell me they were with CBP and I had to give them $100 to get the package I ordered into the country.
So now we’re using tariffs for phone scams!
So now we’re using tariffs for phone scams!
April 26, 2025 at 12:53 PM
So I just picked up the phone and got hit with a new scam: someone tried to tell me they were with CBP and I had to give them $100 to get the package I ordered into the country.
So now we’re using tariffs for phone scams!
So now we’re using tariffs for phone scams!