The Budget Lab
@budgetlab.bsky.social
The Budget Lab at Yale is a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal proposals for the American economy.
Today. Nov. 12 at 12:10pm ET. Join the @budgetlab.bsky.social
webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
November 12, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Today. Nov. 12 at 12:10pm ET. Join the @budgetlab.bsky.social
webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New report this morning from @budgetlab.bsky.social thinking through the challenges of distributional fiscal analysis when a policy is deficit-financed. We talk about the issues and present our preferred methodology.
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October 14, 2025 at 1:54 PM
New report this morning from @budgetlab.bsky.social thinking through the challenges of distributional fiscal analysis when a policy is deficit-financed. We talk about the issues and present our preferred methodology.
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New report today featured in @financialtimes.com article, "AI is not killing jobs," by @senojerialc.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/c9f9...
www.ft.com/content/c9f9...
October 2, 2025 at 12:36 AM
New report today featured in @financialtimes.com article, "AI is not killing jobs," by @senojerialc.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/c9f9...
www.ft.com/content/c9f9...
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/
Tomorrow. September 30 at noon EDT. Join this timely webinar to discuss tariffs in an uncertain legal environment. Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Join us Tuesday, September 30 at noon EDT for the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar "Tariffs in an Uncertain
Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
September 29, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Tomorrow. September 30 at noon EDT. Join this timely webinar to discuss tariffs in an uncertain legal environment. Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update out tonight, incorporating the heavy truck, furniture, and pharmaceutical tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday. Details are still sparse; we will update in the future as more specifics about the policy are published.
In brief...
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In brief...
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September 27, 2025 at 12:04 AM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update out tonight, incorporating the heavy truck, furniture, and pharmaceutical tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday. Details are still sparse; we will update in the future as more specifics about the policy are published.
In brief...
1/10
In brief...
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Join us Tuesday, September 30 at noon EDT for the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar "Tariffs in an Uncertain
Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
September 23, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Join us Tuesday, September 30 at noon EDT for the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar "Tariffs in an Uncertain
Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social
New report from @budgetlab.bsky.social about the effects of tariffs on poverty. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eff...
The Effect of Tariffs on Poverty
budgetlab.yale.edu
September 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
New report from @budgetlab.bsky.social about the effects of tariffs on poverty. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eff...
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all tariffs through Sept 3. This is a major update. We:
• incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares;
• show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026.
In brief...
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• incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares;
• show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026.
In brief...
1/12
September 4, 2025 at 7:15 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all tariffs through Sept 3. This is a major update. We:
• incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares;
• show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026.
In brief...
1/12
• incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares;
• show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026.
In brief...
1/12
@natasharsarin.bsky.social spoke with @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social on where the economy is going and @budgetlab.bsky.social's latest work. Listen here: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/o...
Opinion | Trump vs. the U.S. Economy
www.nytimes.com
August 18, 2025 at 3:20 PM
@natasharsarin.bsky.social spoke with @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social on where the economy is going and @budgetlab.bsky.social's latest work. Listen here: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/o...
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all 2025 tariffs through today, including the higher 50% rate on India. In brief...
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August 7, 2025 at 4:22 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all 2025 tariffs through today, including the higher 50% rate on India. In brief...
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Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the Administration's new list of "reciprocal" tariffs published last night and going into effect August 7, as well as maintaining the 25% rate on Mexico. In brief...
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August 1, 2025 at 3:56 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the Administration's new list of "reciprocal" tariffs published last night and going into effect August 7, as well as maintaining the 25% rate on Mexico. In brief...
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Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 25% tariff on India, up from our previously-assumed 10% and which goes into effect August 1. In brief...
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July 30, 2025 at 4:26 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 25% tariff on India, up from our previously-assumed 10% and which goes into effect August 1. In brief...
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Reposted by The Budget Lab
We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.
July 28, 2025 at 3:11 PM
We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief...
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July 28, 2025 at 3:43 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief...
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Listen to @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @npr.org
discuss the latest on tariffs with @steveinskeep.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/07/28/n...
discuss the latest on tariffs with @steveinskeep.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/07/28/n...
The next wave of Trump tariffs are expected to go into effect on Friday
NPR speaks with Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale, about trade deals and tariffs ahead of a Friday deadline imposed by President Trump.
www.npr.org
July 28, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Listen to @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @npr.org
discuss the latest on tariffs with @steveinskeep.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/07/28/n...
discuss the latest on tariffs with @steveinskeep.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/07/28/n...
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief...
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July 23, 2025 at 9:29 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief...
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Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1.
In brief...
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In brief...
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July 14, 2025 at 1:46 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1.
In brief...
1/10
In brief...
1/10
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief...
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July 11, 2025 at 5:15 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief...
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Reposted by The Budget Lab
July 10, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief...
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July 10, 2025 at 2:09 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief...
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Reposted by The Budget Lab
July 7, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Reposted by The Budget Lab
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1.
In brief...
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In brief...
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July 7, 2025 at 11:39 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1.
In brief...
1/10
In brief...
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@tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com includes @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis in latest article. Read the full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/dis...
July 1, 2025 at 6:46 PM
@tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com includes @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis in latest article. Read the full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/dis...
Today. Noon ET. Join this timely webinar about the macroeconomics impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Register for the next @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar on Monday, June 23 at noon ET. A timely discussion of the potential macroeconomic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
June 23, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Today. Noon ET. Join this timely webinar about the macroeconomics impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...