Mark G. Sheppard
@markgsheppard.com
Inequality/Mobility. Researcher @NBER.org.
3rd Year Econ PhD, The Graduate Center.
2nd Lt., U.S. National Guard.
Former Congressional Staff.
3rd Year Econ PhD, The Graduate Center.
2nd Lt., U.S. National Guard.
Former Congressional Staff.
Google Trends data shows that, since the shutdown halted the House oversight investigation, there has been no interest in Epstein's connection to Trump. But immediately upon returning, new evidence brings renewed public interest.
November 13, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Google Trends data shows that, since the shutdown halted the House oversight investigation, there has been no interest in Epstein's connection to Trump. But immediately upon returning, new evidence brings renewed public interest.
Using political betting market data, the Path to 51 for Democrats involves holding the line on a whole suite of battleground states, while also picking up: Maine, Ohio, and Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
November 10, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Using political betting market data, the Path to 51 for Democrats involves holding the line on a whole suite of battleground states, while also picking up: Maine, Ohio, and Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
This would probably involve supporting progressive candidates in Maine/Ohio, but a more moderate candidate in Iowa.
For progressives heartened by the recent election results and looking to 2026, the Senate map/math is bad. Based on betting market data, the clearest path to 51 for liberals is to defend GA/MI/MN/NM/VA, and flip NC/ME, and IA.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
November 10, 2025 at 12:26 AM
For progressives heartened by the recent election results and looking to 2026, the Senate map/math is bad. Based on betting market data, the clearest path to 51 for liberals is to defend GA/MI/MN/NM/VA, and flip NC/ME, and IA.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
This is much harder than it seems. But that's the map.
$27M on the #GovernmentShutdown lasting more than 35 days. This is historic levels of bad governance.
November 4, 2025 at 10:06 PM
$27M on the #GovernmentShutdown lasting more than 35 days. This is historic levels of bad governance.
I get that we all work with the data we have not the data we need want.
But the results depend on: the horizon, how you truncate the data e.g. industries of top 350 firms vs top 100, realized/granted instead of net wealth, and average full-time $ instead of median $ of all worker.
But the results depend on: the horizon, how you truncate the data e.g. industries of top 350 firms vs top 100, realized/granted instead of net wealth, and average full-time $ instead of median $ of all worker.
October 28, 2025 at 11:20 PM
I get that we all work with the data we have not the data we need want.
But the results depend on: the horizon, how you truncate the data e.g. industries of top 350 firms vs top 100, realized/granted instead of net wealth, and average full-time $ instead of median $ of all worker.
But the results depend on: the horizon, how you truncate the data e.g. industries of top 350 firms vs top 100, realized/granted instead of net wealth, and average full-time $ instead of median $ of all worker.
Musk got a $1T package but has “realized” basically $0. Using “realized” options is not just wrong, it would code the richest man in history as basically homeless.
This is indefensible.
This is indefensible.
October 28, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Musk got a $1T package but has “realized” basically $0. Using “realized” options is not just wrong, it would code the richest man in history as basically homeless.
This is indefensible.
This is indefensible.
As a fan of design, I’ve always been a fan of the fact that honey containers are one of the only physical commodities that have a maximalist design.
October 27, 2025 at 12:00 AM
As a fan of design, I’ve always been a fan of the fact that honey containers are one of the only physical commodities that have a maximalist design.
In my county-level Sahm Rule work, several Midwestern areas have been signaling labor-market softening for a while—including parts of Iowa—so this tracks with what the research I've been working on has been showing.
October 26, 2025 at 9:40 PM
In my county-level Sahm Rule work, several Midwestern areas have been signaling labor-market softening for a while—including parts of Iowa—so this tracks with what the research I've been working on has been showing.
Donald Trump has had more government shutdowns under unified party control than all other U.S. president —combined. Trump also presided over the longest shutdown, and will likely surpass that record.
This is not gridlock, this is bad governance.
#EconSky #GovernmentShutdown
This is not gridlock, this is bad governance.
#EconSky #GovernmentShutdown
October 24, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Donald Trump has had more government shutdowns under unified party control than all other U.S. president —combined. Trump also presided over the longest shutdown, and will likely surpass that record.
This is not gridlock, this is bad governance.
#EconSky #GovernmentShutdown
This is not gridlock, this is bad governance.
#EconSky #GovernmentShutdown
"While the national numbers of continued UI claims are not yet showing up as recessionary, there are clearly pockets of this country that are experiencing greater labor market weakness"
Agreed. If you Sahm-Rule all county unemployment, even without Sep, there's clearly spots of downturn.
Agreed. If you Sahm-Rule all county unemployment, even without Sep, there's clearly spots of downturn.
October 24, 2025 at 10:20 PM
"While the national numbers of continued UI claims are not yet showing up as recessionary, there are clearly pockets of this country that are experiencing greater labor market weakness"
Agreed. If you Sahm-Rule all county unemployment, even without Sep, there's clearly spots of downturn.
Agreed. If you Sahm-Rule all county unemployment, even without Sep, there's clearly spots of downturn.
Setting aside that core/supercore strip out big costs by definition (energy for core; housing for supercore).
If you want to show lots of related data but make the trend the point: use a simple palette, plot a moving average with a confidence band, and push the points to the background.
If you want to show lots of related data but make the trend the point: use a simple palette, plot a moving average with a confidence band, and push the points to the background.
October 24, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Setting aside that core/supercore strip out big costs by definition (energy for core; housing for supercore).
If you want to show lots of related data but make the trend the point: use a simple palette, plot a moving average with a confidence band, and push the points to the background.
If you want to show lots of related data but make the trend the point: use a simple palette, plot a moving average with a confidence band, and push the points to the background.
Expanding the White House with an extended gold-plated wing, while SNAP benefits set to expire due to a #GovernmentShutdown, has a very Robin-Hood-in-reverse aesthetic.
October 22, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Expanding the White House with an extended gold-plated wing, while SNAP benefits set to expire due to a #GovernmentShutdown, has a very Robin-Hood-in-reverse aesthetic.
I created an interactive tool allows for different measures of unemployment in a turning point analysis framework, modifying the #SahmRule by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, and the 20-24 group is seeing increases in their unemployment relative to the recent past.
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
October 21, 2025 at 4:54 PM
I created an interactive tool allows for different measures of unemployment in a turning point analysis framework, modifying the #SahmRule by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, and the 20-24 group is seeing increases in their unemployment relative to the recent past.
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
Hopefully this is simply an unrelated one-off.
October 20, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Hopefully this is simply an unrelated one-off.
Republicans have $84M cash-on-hand, Democrats have $15M. “No Kings” drew ~7M. If each attendee chipped in $10, the DNC would overtake the RNC’s cash edge.
The average inflatable dinosaur costume is $70.
Progressives need to be more productive. Bad organizing tactics is exhaustive.
#NoKings
The average inflatable dinosaur costume is $70.
Progressives need to be more productive. Bad organizing tactics is exhaustive.
#NoKings
October 20, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Republicans have $84M cash-on-hand, Democrats have $15M. “No Kings” drew ~7M. If each attendee chipped in $10, the DNC would overtake the RNC’s cash edge.
The average inflatable dinosaur costume is $70.
Progressives need to be more productive. Bad organizing tactics is exhaustive.
#NoKings
The average inflatable dinosaur costume is $70.
Progressives need to be more productive. Bad organizing tactics is exhaustive.
#NoKings
The NBER conference on Race and Stratification was fantastic. Thanks to @trevondlogan.bsky.social for organizing, and to all the incredible presenters.
(Also I met Mark Shepard of Harvard, and told him we should write a Shepard and Sheppard paper, like we’re Goodman and @joshua-goodman.com)
(Also I met Mark Shepard of Harvard, and told him we should write a Shepard and Sheppard paper, like we’re Goodman and @joshua-goodman.com)
October 18, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The NBER conference on Race and Stratification was fantastic. Thanks to @trevondlogan.bsky.social for organizing, and to all the incredible presenters.
(Also I met Mark Shepard of Harvard, and told him we should write a Shepard and Sheppard paper, like we’re Goodman and @joshua-goodman.com)
(Also I met Mark Shepard of Harvard, and told him we should write a Shepard and Sheppard paper, like we’re Goodman and @joshua-goodman.com)
To build off of this: using county level unemployment in turning point recession indicators, like the Sahm Rule by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, the DC suburbs are one of the most accurate.
Likely because it’s more rich/educated, and less exposed to private sector shocks.
Likely because it’s more rich/educated, and less exposed to private sector shocks.
October 18, 2025 at 3:08 AM
To build off of this: using county level unemployment in turning point recession indicators, like the Sahm Rule by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, the DC suburbs are one of the most accurate.
Likely because it’s more rich/educated, and less exposed to private sector shocks.
Likely because it’s more rich/educated, and less exposed to private sector shocks.
I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time.
The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
October 16, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time.
The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.
Conservative activists spent decades building/funding a network of organizations, supporting a back bench of judges, gerrymandering, monopolizing local media, electing moderates in blue districts, to overturn over a half-century of jurisprudence.
Progressives need to be serious.
Progressives need to be serious.
October 13, 2025 at 5:17 AM
Conservative activists spent decades building/funding a network of organizations, supporting a back bench of judges, gerrymandering, monopolizing local media, electing moderates in blue districts, to overturn over a half-century of jurisprudence.
Progressives need to be serious.
Progressives need to be serious.
In 2018 and 2025, Trump blamed Democrats for the #GovernmentShutdown —both times under unified GOP control. #EconSky
October 12, 2025 at 7:36 PM
In 2018 and 2025, Trump blamed Democrats for the #GovernmentShutdown —both times under unified GOP control. #EconSky
No new jobs data during the #GovernmentShutdown but Google Search Results shows "Unemployment Benefits" at a post-pandemic peak.
#EconSky
#EconSky
October 12, 2025 at 12:56 AM
No new jobs data during the #GovernmentShutdown but Google Search Results shows "Unemployment Benefits" at a post-pandemic peak.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Even without jobs data, Google Search Results for "Unemployment Benefits" being at a post-Covid high is probably —and I hate to use such labor econ/technical jargon here, but it's probably— "not good."
#EconSky
#EconSky
October 10, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Even without jobs data, Google Search Results for "Unemployment Benefits" being at a post-Covid high is probably —and I hate to use such labor econ/technical jargon here, but it's probably— "not good."
#EconSky
#EconSky
But isn't this just a story of increasing lethality?
Frequency of violent crime can go down, and still lead to more death, if more crimes involve lethal means. Like this trend of death ↑ but incidents ↓ is replicated in the political violence data as well.
Frequency of violent crime can go down, and still lead to more death, if more crimes involve lethal means. Like this trend of death ↑ but incidents ↓ is replicated in the political violence data as well.
October 5, 2025 at 8:09 PM
But isn't this just a story of increasing lethality?
Frequency of violent crime can go down, and still lead to more death, if more crimes involve lethal means. Like this trend of death ↑ but incidents ↓ is replicated in the political violence data as well.
Frequency of violent crime can go down, and still lead to more death, if more crimes involve lethal means. Like this trend of death ↑ but incidents ↓ is replicated in the political violence data as well.
The data shows that Google search results on #NationalGuard lag about two weeks behind search peaks of #Epstein. Which correlates to federal activations of the National Guard to Democrat-run cities following periods of media traction on Jeffrey Epstein.
#EconSky
#EconSky
October 5, 2025 at 7:47 PM
The data shows that Google search results on #NationalGuard lag about two weeks behind search peaks of #Epstein. Which correlates to federal activations of the National Guard to Democrat-run cities following periods of media traction on Jeffrey Epstein.
#EconSky
#EconSky