Marc Chandler
@marcmakingsense.bsky.social
Political economist
Focus global capital markets
Focus global capital markets
Notable fx option expirations:
$1.1850 for 3.4 bln euros Feb 3 expiry
JPY155 for $570 mln and JPY155.70 for $530 mln Feb 2
A$325 mln at $0.6930 Feb 2
GBP350 mln at $1.3650 Feb 2
$1.1850 for 3.4 bln euros Feb 3 expiry
JPY155 for $570 mln and JPY155.70 for $530 mln Feb 2
A$325 mln at $0.6930 Feb 2
GBP350 mln at $1.3650 Feb 2
January 30, 2026 at 9:10 PM
Notable fx option expirations:
$1.1850 for 3.4 bln euros Feb 3 expiry
JPY155 for $570 mln and JPY155.70 for $530 mln Feb 2
A$325 mln at $0.6930 Feb 2
GBP350 mln at $1.3650 Feb 2
$1.1850 for 3.4 bln euros Feb 3 expiry
JPY155 for $570 mln and JPY155.70 for $530 mln Feb 2
A$325 mln at $0.6930 Feb 2
GBP350 mln at $1.3650 Feb 2
Despite ongoing investigation of the Fed, imagine that Warsh is timely confirmed. His first meeting is the June 16-17. Fed funds futures are discounting ~87% of a 25 bp cut then (~75% at the start of the week). FWIW Jan core CPI could be the lowest since Q1 21 (~2.4%).
January 30, 2026 at 8:40 PM
Despite ongoing investigation of the Fed, imagine that Warsh is timely confirmed. His first meeting is the June 16-17. Fed funds futures are discounting ~87% of a 25 bp cut then (~75% at the start of the week). FWIW Jan core CPI could be the lowest since Q1 21 (~2.4%).
Reposted by Marc Chandler
Asia responded to speculation that Warsh will be nominated to replace Powell at the Fed by buy #$USD and selling stocks. Europe, and I suspect US participants, see the administration not appointing Warsh if it would not bolster the chances of lower rates.
www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Dollar Stalls after Bouncing on Speculation Warsh to Get Nod for Fed's Helm
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 30, 2026 at 11:54 AM
Asia responded to speculation that Warsh will be nominated to replace Powell at the Fed by buy #$USD and selling stocks. Europe, and I suspect US participants, see the administration not appointing Warsh if it would not bolster the chances of lower rates.
www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Asia responded to speculation that Warsh will be nominated to replace Powell at the Fed by buy #$USD and selling stocks. Europe, and I suspect US participants, see the administration not appointing Warsh if it would not bolster the chances of lower rates.
www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Dollar Stalls after Bouncing on Speculation Warsh to Get Nod for Fed's Helm
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 30, 2026 at 11:54 AM
Asia responded to speculation that Warsh will be nominated to replace Powell at the Fed by buy #$USD and selling stocks. Europe, and I suspect US participants, see the administration not appointing Warsh if it would not bolster the chances of lower rates.
www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
North American participants seemed skeptical of Bessent's attempt to walk back what many believe is the administration's desire for a weaker dollar. After some gyrations, the USD is little changed now, but looks vulnerable.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Dollar Gyrations but Little Changed ahead of the North American Session
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 29, 2026 at 11:46 AM
North American participants seemed skeptical of Bessent's attempt to walk back what many believe is the administration's desire for a weaker dollar. After some gyrations, the USD is little changed now, but looks vulnerable.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
This is the second report I have seen that discusses the US trying to wedge Alberta away from Canada. Nothing will come of it but still sad. Carney is right--there has been a rupture. Gifted...No paywall.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada
Separatists from oil-rich province try to capitalise on friction between White House and Mark Carney
giftarticle.ft.com
January 29, 2026 at 1:38 PM
This is the second report I have seen that discusses the US trying to wedge Alberta away from Canada. Nothing will come of it but still sad. Carney is right--there has been a rupture. Gifted...No paywall.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Chunky FX option expirations tomorrow:
6.03 bln euros at $1.19, 2.2 bln euros at $1.1925
$1.2 bln at JPY153
$1.8 bln at CAD1.3500
GBP522 mln at $1.3800
6.03 bln euros at $1.19, 2.2 bln euros at $1.1925
$1.2 bln at JPY153
$1.8 bln at CAD1.3500
GBP522 mln at $1.3800
January 29, 2026 at 9:46 PM
Chunky FX option expirations tomorrow:
6.03 bln euros at $1.19, 2.2 bln euros at $1.1925
$1.2 bln at JPY153
$1.8 bln at CAD1.3500
GBP522 mln at $1.3800
6.03 bln euros at $1.19, 2.2 bln euros at $1.1925
$1.2 bln at JPY153
$1.8 bln at CAD1.3500
GBP522 mln at $1.3800
This is the second report I have seen that discusses the US trying to wedge Alberta away from Canada. Nothing will come of it but still sad. Carney is right--there has been a rupture. Gifted...No paywall.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Trump officials met group pushing Alberta independence from Canada
Separatists from oil-rich province try to capitalise on friction between White House and Mark Carney
giftarticle.ft.com
January 29, 2026 at 1:38 PM
This is the second report I have seen that discusses the US trying to wedge Alberta away from Canada. Nothing will come of it but still sad. Carney is right--there has been a rupture. Gifted...No paywall.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
North American participants seemed skeptical of Bessent's attempt to walk back what many believe is the administration's desire for a weaker dollar. After some gyrations, the USD is little changed now, but looks vulnerable.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Dollar Gyrations but Little Changed ahead of the North American Session
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 29, 2026 at 11:46 AM
North American participants seemed skeptical of Bessent's attempt to walk back what many believe is the administration's desire for a weaker dollar. After some gyrations, the USD is little changed now, but looks vulnerable.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
#$USD is recovering from yesterday's shellacking. The greenback was stretched before POTUS's comment, which came on the heels of what appears to be US Treasury verbal intervention. Attention turn to Bank of Canada and Fed. More talk less action.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
US Dollar Retraces Some of Yesterday's Dramatic Losses
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 28, 2026 at 11:48 AM
#$USD is recovering from yesterday's shellacking. The greenback was stretched before POTUS's comment, which came on the heels of what appears to be US Treasury verbal intervention. Attention turn to Bank of Canada and Fed. More talk less action.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/us-d...
POTUS says he is not concerned with the dollar's decline and the market took the cue and sold dollars in response. For all the moaning and belly aching that the fx rate is set outside the US, between Bessent last Friday and POTUS today, clearly the US has some agency.
January 27, 2026 at 11:06 PM
POTUS says he is not concerned with the dollar's decline and the market took the cue and sold dollars in response. For all the moaning and belly aching that the fx rate is set outside the US, between Bessent last Friday and POTUS today, clearly the US has some agency.
Some euro buying may be related to a couple of large options. On Friday, options nearly 4.3 bln euros at $1.19 expire and on Monday (February 2) 2.0 bln euros of options at $1.20 expire. Maybe.
January 27, 2026 at 8:51 PM
Some euro buying may be related to a couple of large options. On Friday, options nearly 4.3 bln euros at $1.19 expire and on Monday (February 2) 2.0 bln euros of options at $1.20 expire. Maybe.
Reposted by Marc Chandler
No turnaround Tuesday. #$USD is stretched but sentiment is poor and it remains fragile. #$JPY is strongest of G10 as reflect mkt nervousness about intervention. Mkt shrugs off new POTUS threat of new tariffs on South Korea.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
Greenback Mostly Consolidates, while Yen Gyrations Point to Nervous Market
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 27, 2026 at 11:48 AM
No turnaround Tuesday. #$USD is stretched but sentiment is poor and it remains fragile. #$JPY is strongest of G10 as reflect mkt nervousness about intervention. Mkt shrugs off new POTUS threat of new tariffs on South Korea.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
No turnaround Tuesday. #$USD is stretched but sentiment is poor and it remains fragile. #$JPY is strongest of G10 as reflect mkt nervousness about intervention. Mkt shrugs off new POTUS threat of new tariffs on South Korea.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
Greenback Mostly Consolidates, while Yen Gyrations Point to Nervous Market
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 27, 2026 at 11:48 AM
No turnaround Tuesday. #$USD is stretched but sentiment is poor and it remains fragile. #$JPY is strongest of G10 as reflect mkt nervousness about intervention. Mkt shrugs off new POTUS threat of new tariffs on South Korea.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/gree...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
USD broadly lower. Threat of intervention on JPY is arguably more potent than material intervention. Heighten risk of US govt shutdown at the end of the week. US threat of 100% tariff on Canada seem alarmist and unlikely.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Dollar Sold Broadly, while Yen Soars on Fear of Joint Intervention
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 26, 2026 at 12:02 PM
USD broadly lower. Threat of intervention on JPY is arguably more potent than material intervention. Heighten risk of US govt shutdown at the end of the week. US threat of 100% tariff on Canada seem alarmist and unlikely.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
USD broadly lower. Threat of intervention on JPY is arguably more potent than material intervention. Heighten risk of US govt shutdown at the end of the week. US threat of 100% tariff on Canada seem alarmist and unlikely.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Dollar Sold Broadly, while Yen Soars on Fear of Joint Intervention
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 26, 2026 at 12:02 PM
USD broadly lower. Threat of intervention on JPY is arguably more potent than material intervention. Heighten risk of US govt shutdown at the end of the week. US threat of 100% tariff on Canada seem alarmist and unlikely.
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
See marctomarket.com/2026/01/doll...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
New weekly drops: Possible snap election call in Japan trumps meeting where BOJ stands pat. POTUS indicates speech in Davos will contain new policy initiatives. SCOTUS decision day may include tariff ruling. #$USD upside correction may be nearly complete.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Week Ahead: Dollar's Upside Correction Since around Christmas may be in the Final Phase
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 17, 2026 at 12:22 PM
New weekly drops: Possible snap election call in Japan trumps meeting where BOJ stands pat. POTUS indicates speech in Davos will contain new policy initiatives. SCOTUS decision day may include tariff ruling. #$USD upside correction may be nearly complete.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
Check out my latest essay
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
The U.S. Didn’t Lose to Globalization. It Invented a Better Version of It.
The U.S. globalized by exporting firms, not goods, Marc Chandler and Adam Farhat write in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
January 23, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Check out my latest essay
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
Week Ahead: FOMC, Bank of Canada, & Norway's Norges Bank meet but no change is expected. POTUS may nominate Powell's successor. Given the heightened verbal threats & Fed checking rates ostensibly on behalf of US Treasury, mkt may test official resolve.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Week Ahead: Standpat Fed, Bank of Canada, and Norges Bank, while Cat-and-Mouse with Officials on Yen Continues
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 24, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Week Ahead: FOMC, Bank of Canada, & Norway's Norges Bank meet but no change is expected. POTUS may nominate Powell's successor. Given the heightened verbal threats & Fed checking rates ostensibly on behalf of US Treasury, mkt may test official resolve.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Week Ahead: FOMC, Bank of Canada, & Norway's Norges Bank meet but no change is expected. POTUS may nominate Powell's successor. Given the heightened verbal threats & Fed checking rates ostensibly on behalf of US Treasury, mkt may test official resolve.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Week Ahead: Standpat Fed, Bank of Canada, and Norges Bank, while Cat-and-Mouse with Officials on Yen Continues
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
marctomarket.com
January 24, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Week Ahead: FOMC, Bank of Canada, & Norway's Norges Bank meet but no change is expected. POTUS may nominate Powell's successor. Given the heightened verbal threats & Fed checking rates ostensibly on behalf of US Treasury, mkt may test official resolve.
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
marctomarket.com/2026/01/week...
Widespread talk Fed checked FX rates, which is not unusual, but some are saying Fed explicitly said it was doing so on behalf of the US Treasury. Now that is unusual and gives the appearance of verbal intervention by the Fed. FWIW
January 23, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Widespread talk Fed checked FX rates, which is not unusual, but some are saying Fed explicitly said it was doing so on behalf of the US Treasury. Now that is unusual and gives the appearance of verbal intervention by the Fed. FWIW
Check out my latest essay
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
The U.S. Didn’t Lose to Globalization. It Invented a Better Version of It.
The U.S. globalized by exporting firms, not goods, Marc Chandler and Adam Farhat write in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
January 23, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Check out my latest essay
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
@barronsonline, written with Adam Farhat, a grad student at the Univ of Sussex. On America's globalization, which by design and historical circumstances is based on direct investment rather than exports.
No paywall: www.barrons.com/articles/the...
Reposted by Marc Chandler
BOJ holds, talk of intervention, but suspect heightened verbal intervention and possible rate check is more likely. PBOC set the dollar's fix below CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. US House of Reps pass funding bill to avert another shutdown.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
BOJ Maintains Steady Policy, Heightened Intervention Watch, while PBOC sets Dollar Fix Below CNY7.0
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:05 PM
BOJ holds, talk of intervention, but suspect heightened verbal intervention and possible rate check is more likely. PBOC set the dollar's fix below CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. US House of Reps pass funding bill to avert another shutdown.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
BOJ holds, talk of intervention, but suspect heightened verbal intervention and possible rate check is more likely. PBOC set the dollar's fix below CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. US House of Reps pass funding bill to avert another shutdown.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
BOJ Maintains Steady Policy, Heightened Intervention Watch, while PBOC sets Dollar Fix Below CNY7.0
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:05 PM
BOJ holds, talk of intervention, but suspect heightened verbal intervention and possible rate check is more likely. PBOC set the dollar's fix below CNY7.0 for the first time since 2023. US House of Reps pass funding bill to avert another shutdown.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/boj-...
Collective sigh of relief. POTUS backed away from the military threat to take Greenland and the tariffs for Feb 1 on several European countries. Also, JGBs continue their fragile recovery from Tues rout.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/a-co...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/a-co...
A Collective Sigh of Relief
Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler
www.marctomarket.com
January 22, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Collective sigh of relief. POTUS backed away from the military threat to take Greenland and the tariffs for Feb 1 on several European countries. Also, JGBs continue their fragile recovery from Tues rout.
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/a-co...
See www.marctomarket.com/2026/01/a-co...