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No Relaxation of US-China Tensions, Japanese Political Challenges, and a Rise in UK Unemployment, Send Ripples Through the Capital Markets

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Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 14h

US-Chinese tensions remain high. Peak escalation has not been reached. Japan's politics are looking less stable. UK reported an unexpected rise in unemployment. France present controversial budget at 9 am ET. Risk-off. Stocks down and bonds up.
marctomarket.com/2025/10/no-r...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Market Sees "Escalation to De-Escalate"

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 1d

This side of the weekend, market participants are concluding the "escalation" is needed to "de-escalate" US-Chinese tensions. Yet, we are more suspicious, and suspect that there is no return to status quo ante. Port levies will imposed tomorrow.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/10/mark...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 4d

Many have been critical of how Russia tries to influence elections. Yet, isn't the US swap with Argentina a way to influence its upcoming parliamentary election? Most critics have focused on the economic risks, while few have recognized this as political interference.

Week Ahead: Politics Pushes Aside Economics

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 3d

Politics is triumphing over economics in driving the $9.6 trillion a day fx market. Washington and Beijing accuse each other of breaking the trade truce. Both have leverage for talks that still seems likely to take place at APEC later this month.
marctomarket.com/2025/10/week...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Week Ahead: Politics Pushes Aside Economics

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 3d

Politics is triumphing over economics in driving the $9.6 trillion a day fx market. Washington and Beijing accuse each other of breaking the trade truce. Both have leverage for talks that still seems likely to take place at APEC later this month.
marctomarket.com/2025/10/week...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 4d

POTUS on wires threatening "massive tariffs" on China and sees no reason to meet with Xi. Stocks sold. USD sold. The US-China confrontation has taken a significant turn for the worse.

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 4d

Many have been critical of how Russia tries to influence elections. Yet, isn't the US swap with Argentina a way to influence its upcoming parliamentary election? Most critics have focused on the economic risks, while few have recognized this as political interference.

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 4d

I think the market has not yet recognized the importance of Beijing's announcements over the past 48 hours. If enforced, they could be game changers. Or they could negotiating chits for US concessions (Taiwan, chips, etc)
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/chin...
Spoiler:

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 4d

I think the market has not yet recognized the importance of Beijing's announcements over the past 48 hours. If enforced, they could be game changers. Or they could negotiating chits for US concessions (Taiwan, chips, etc)
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/chin...
Spoiler:

China Takes Dramatic Measures, While Japan's MOF Warns Against Excessive Yen Moves

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 4d

USD stabilizes after yesterday's surge. MOF in Japan takes small step on intervention escalation ladder with a cautionary statement. China asserts escalation dominance by tightening rare earth and EV battery export restrictions.
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/chin...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

North American Leadership Awaited in FX

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 5d

Some but limited follow-through USD buying in Asia today but it was sold in the European morning. Gold recovered from initial profit-taking on Hamas deal. China returned and Beijing announced new rare earth export controls. 5 of 19 Fed officials speak.
www.marctomarket.com/2025/10/nort...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 6d

$USD is bid across the board. Its gains do not reflect positive US developments as much as concerns about JPN's likely new government, a continued string of poor German data, and a dovish 50 bp cut by the RBNZ. Gold is above $4000 in spot market
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/doll...

Dollar Jumps by Default

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 7d

Notable FX option expirations:
1.8 bln euros at $1.1650 and 1.6 bln expire there Friday.
$776 mln at JPY151
$330 mln at CAD1.3975.
www.marctomarket.com/2025/10/the-...

The Greenback Remains Bid

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 7d

North America did not extend the USD gains yesterday, but Asia and Europe have today. USD gains seem to be more by default--drivers are developments in Japan and France and Germany. Little positive coming is from US where the govt remains shut.
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/the-...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Dollar Driven Higher by Japan's LDP Choice as next Leader and Prime Minister and the Collapse of the French Government

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 8d

Two developments have lifted the greenback to start the new week. 1st is the anticipated policy mix of the new Japanese government. 2nd is the unexpected resignation of French PM Lecornu after less than a 1 month stint. US govt shutdown continues.
See www.marctomarket.com/2025/10/doll...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Week Ahead: US Government Remains Closed, China is on Extended Holiday, and Markets Hardly Notice

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 10d

US govt shutdown will for a light econ calendar, but market is still looking through it. Mainland China's markets are closed until Thursday. Japan's LDP elects Takaichi who wants more fiscal stimulus. $JPY and JGBs may be tested.
www.marctomarket.com/2025/10/week...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

The Dollar Limps into the Weekend

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 11d

$USD is mostly softer ahead of what ought to have been employment day in the US but the govt shutdown continues. The greenback is mostly confined to yesterday's ranges. Japan's LDP picks a new leader and prime minister tomorrow.
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/the-...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Quiet Foreign Exchange Market in which the Greenback Struggles to Find Traction

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 12d

Notable FX option expirations today:
2.9 bln euros $1.1785-$1.1790
A$1.9 bln $0.6600 and ~A$800 mln $0.6625
$360 mln at CAD1.3965
GBP556 mln at $1.3470

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 12d

$USD looks vulnerable but is trading mostly inside yesterday's ranges so far today. The news stream is light. China and Indian markets are also closed for national holidays, while the US govt shutdown continues--Day 2 (ave 8 days).
See marctomarket.com/2025/10/quie...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

Triennial Survey publication table: BIS,DER_D11_1,1.0

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 14d

BIS triannual survey out today. Preliminary results: ave daily turnover was $9.6 trillion in April. Up about $2 trillion a day from three years ago.
data.bis.org/topics/DER/t...

Turnover of OTC foreign exchange instruments

data.bis.org

Reposted by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 14d

US government shut down looming at midnight. USD trading mostly lower. AUD bolstered by RBA's hawkish hold, but JPY has almost kept up with it despite poor industrial output and retail sales. German retail sales disappoint again. Month- and quarter-end today.
See marctomarket.com/2025/09/us-g...

US Government Shut Down looks Nearly Inevitable

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

US Government Shut Down looks Nearly Inevitable

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 14d

US government shut down looming at midnight. USD trading mostly lower. AUD bolstered by RBA's hawkish hold, but JPY has almost kept up with it despite poor industrial output and retail sales. German retail sales disappoint again. Month- and quarter-end today.
See marctomarket.com/2025/09/us-g...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler

USD Extends Pre-Weekend Pullback, but may Find Better Bid in North America

Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense.bsky.social · 15d

$USD pre-weekend retreat has been extended today, but the pullback has stretched the intraday momentum indicators. It may find a better bid in North America ahead of POTUS meeting with Dem leaders to see if govt shutdown can be averted. Seems unlikely.
marctomarket.com/2025/09/usd-...

Breaking Down and Making Sense of the Global Capital Markets with Political Economist Marc Chandler