Manifold Alerts
@manifoldalerts.bsky.social
Posts interesting Manifold Markets.
Market: [read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)
Resolves based on subjective poll of Manifold users
manifold.markets/Conflux/did-...
Resolves based on subjective poll of Manifold users
manifold.markets/Conflux/did-...
[read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)
58% chance. At end of 2025, resolves based on the probability (rounded to 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%) that Trump ever (when above the age of 20) had any kind of sexual relations with a girl below the ...
manifold.markets
November 17, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Market: [read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)
Resolves based on subjective poll of Manifold users
manifold.markets/Conflux/did-...
Resolves based on subjective poll of Manifold users
manifold.markets/Conflux/did-...
Market: Will Tesla have driverless ride-hailing in the US by end of year?
manifold.markets/aashiq/will-...
manifold.markets/aashiq/will-...
Will Tesla have driverless ride-hailing in the US by end of year?
10% chance. If Tesla does at least 10,000 cab rides by year end and the service is still operational with any Tesla model (not restricted to Cyber cab), this market will resolve YES
If Tesla rolls ou...
manifold.markets
November 14, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Market: Will Tesla have driverless ride-hailing in the US by end of year?
manifold.markets/aashiq/will-...
manifold.markets/aashiq/will-...
Chance of military conflict between US and Venezuela before end of year increases to 54%
manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...
manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...
Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?
54% chance. Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targ...
manifold.markets
November 14, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Chance of military conflict between US and Venezuela before end of year increases to 54%
manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...
manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...
Market: Will Trump brag on TV at least three hours after he receives the FIFA peace prize at the World Cup draw?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
Will Trump brag on TV at least three hours after he receives the FIFA peace prize at the World Cup draw?
59% chance. FIFA has announced it has created a peace prize which it will presumably give to Trump at the draw for the World Cup on December 5th:
https://bsky.app/profile/pbsnews.org/post/3m4wb3fc7j3...
manifold.markets
November 6, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Market: Will Trump brag on TV at least three hours after he receives the FIFA peace prize at the World Cup draw?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
Chance of federal shutdown still in effect on the 17th has gone down 45%.
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
US federal government shutdown in effect on Nov 17?
45% chance. Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloug...
manifold.markets
November 4, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Chance of federal shutdown still in effect on the 17th has gone down 45%.
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
November 1, 2025 at 2:15 AM
Ladies and gentlemen, they got em.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
October 26, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Ladies and gentlemen, they got em.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Market: Will California billionaires have to pay 5% of their wealth because the mob demands it?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
Will California billionaires have to pay 5% of their wealth because the mob demands it?
16% chance. The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth.
https://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/
Wil...
manifold.markets
October 26, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Market: Will California billionaires have to pay 5% of their wealth because the mob demands it?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
I may have spoken too soon!
October 25, 2025 at 8:23 PM
I may have spoken too soon!
Market: Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
manifold.markets/Soli/will-do...
manifold.markets/Soli/will-do...
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
27% chance. The market resolves to “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibili...
manifold.markets
October 25, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Market: Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
manifold.markets/Soli/will-do...
manifold.markets/Soli/will-do...
Market: Will Trump tear down the white house before the end of his 2nd term?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
Will Trump tear down the white house before the end of his 2nd term?
5% chance. Resolves YES if Trump tears down 90% or more of the original building as it stood at the end of Joseph Biden's term. Resolves NO otherwise. If Trump rebuilds a lookalike with modern wiring ...
manifold.markets
October 24, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Market: Will Trump tear down the white house before the end of his 2nd term?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
Manifold was really weirdly overconfident about the Louvre thieves getting caught quickly.
October 23, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Manifold was really weirdly overconfident about the Louvre thieves getting caught quickly.
Low participant count but 50/50 on shutdown until November 17 is crazy.
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
US federal government shutdown in effect on Nov 17?
51% chance. Definition (what counts as a “shutdown”): A lapse in annual appropriations causing affected executive-branch departments/agencies to implement shutdown contingency plans, including furloug...
manifold.markets
October 22, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Low participant count but 50/50 on shutdown until November 17 is crazy.
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
manifold.markets/predyx_marke...
The government will probably (78% chance) still be shut down on Halloween according to current Manifold.
October 22, 2025 at 10:05 AM
The government will probably (78% chance) still be shut down on Halloween according to current Manifold.
Market: At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ?
manifold.markets/Norocvit/at-...
manifold.markets/Norocvit/at-...
At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ?
46% chance. Resolution Criteria
The market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31st, 2025, at 11:59 PM UTC, at least one individual officially identified by French authorities as a "main perpetrato...
manifold.markets
October 20, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Market: At least one main perpetrator of October 2025 Louvre heist arrested by 2026 ?
manifold.markets/Norocvit/at-...
manifold.markets/Norocvit/at-...
Government shutdown markets seem to be moving. 70-something percent chance the shutdown lasts through Halloween now.
October 20, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Government shutdown markets seem to be moving. 70-something percent chance the shutdown lasts through Halloween now.
Market: California voters approve redistricting ballot measure in 2025?
manifold.markets/ShankarSivar...
manifold.markets/ShankarSivar...
California voters approve redistricting ballot measure in 2025?
94% chance. In response to Texas Republicans' redistricting efforts, California Governor Gavin Newsom has proposed a special election in November 2025 to allow voters to decide on new congressional ma...
manifold.markets
October 19, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Market: California voters approve redistricting ballot measure in 2025?
manifold.markets/ShankarSivar...
manifold.markets/ShankarSivar...
Reposted by Manifold Alerts
The shutdown keeps dragging on, this line keeps going up, and prediction markets now suggest that it's more likely than not this will be the longest government shutdown in US history (previous record 35 days).
October 17, 2025 at 7:23 AM
The shutdown keeps dragging on, this line keeps going up, and prediction markets now suggest that it's more likely than not this will be the longest government shutdown in US history (previous record 35 days).
A surprisingly controversial question!
October 16, 2025 at 6:17 AM
A surprisingly controversial question!
Market: Will the IRS refer major Democratic donors for criminal prosecution by EoY 2026?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
Will the IRS refer major Democratic donors for criminal prosecution by EoY 2026?
50% chance. The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump wants to use the IRS to pursue criminal charges against major Democratic donors such as George Soros:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-...
manifold.markets
October 16, 2025 at 6:11 AM
Market: Will the IRS refer major Democratic donors for criminal prosecution by EoY 2026?
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...
Market: Will Twitter/X stop all monetization for blue checkmark users by the end of 2025?
manifold.markets/strutheo/wil...
manifold.markets/strutheo/wil...
Will Twitter/X stop all monetization for blue checkmark users by the end of 2025?
21% chance.
manifold.markets
October 16, 2025 at 5:52 AM
Market: Will Twitter/X stop all monetization for blue checkmark users by the end of 2025?
manifold.markets/strutheo/wil...
manifold.markets/strutheo/wil...
