Thank you! I think the European/US reaction to the Georgia war very much informed Putin's assumptions when he invaded Crimea. As for the Maidan and Crimean annexation, I devote so much ink to them because they are crucial to understanding why Putin chose all-out war in 2022.

Thanksgiving (Thursday) deadline was meant to focus minds and reflects Trump's rush. In any case, Europeans will have to figure out how to keep funding Ukraine by Christmas.
Putin will wait. Reconquering Ukraine is about Russia's place in the world—and his historical legacy. ⌛️

The fundamental contradiction of this conflict has still not been resolved: Ukrainians require the wherewithal to deter future aggression; the Kremlin will not rest until Ukraine is subordinated (and Zelensky out of office). ⚔️

That's how we got to where we are now. A traditional US administration would have met with the Ukrainians and European allies to come up with a joint position to take to Moscow. It is mind-boggling that the exact opposite has happened. 🤯

The Witkoff-Dmitriev channel is useful to Trump as a direct conduit to Moscow without institutional interference. For Putin, the channel allows for the floating of ideas without the Kremlin's imprimatur. Typical plausible deniability: "We haven't seen this proposal." 🤷‍♂️

Trump's hurry to check off the war hobbles the US position, especially as Putin believes time is on his side as he hacks off more of Ukraine and waits for Western allies to turn on each other. ⏳

3) Trump associates Zelensky with his first impeachment and views Ukraine as a secondary power. Even if Trump has come to admire Ukrainians' incredible pluck, he still regards Russia as the greater power. 🥇

Oh, and Ukrainians don't exactly have the best association with agreements made by Americans and Russians in Budapest.

(Clearly Budapest was in the works well before this call. An unexpected winner is Viktor Orban, who after months of playing éminence grise will finally have a moment of glory.)

Putin has once again taken the wind out of Zelensky's sails. Zelensky can still ask for Tomahawks, but it's hard to imagine Trump agreeing before a renewed US push to end the fighting. Now it will be Trump instructing Zelensky on what he learned from Putin. Tough meeting ahead.