Lucian Kim
@luciankim.bsky.social
Senior Ukraine Analyst @crisisgroup.org, former correspondent based in Berlin and Moscow, author of new @columbiaup.bsky.social book on why Russia invaded Ukraine. Rarely seen on social media.
Pinned
Lucian Kim
@luciankim.bsky.social
· Feb 13
Putin's Revenge | Columbia University Press
cup.columbia.edu
The war in Ukraine is not a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing. We know exactly who started it and that his aggression is directed as much against Ukraine as against the US and its allies. I wrote a whole book about it: cup.columbia.edu/book/putins-...
Often overlooked in Ukraine peace talks is the fundamental difference between the two sides: Zelensky represents the Ukrainian people and must fear their wrath; Putin represents only himself—the difference between a country of citizens and a country of subjects.
November 25, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Often overlooked in Ukraine peace talks is the fundamental difference between the two sides: Zelensky represents the Ukrainian people and must fear their wrath; Putin represents only himself—the difference between a country of citizens and a country of subjects.
The question I get asked most often is how to understand Trump's push-me-pull-me Ukraine policy. To me there are a few constants that don't change:
1) He really wants to end the war fast. Results over process.
2) He respects Putin and wants a good relationship with Russia. 👉
1) He really wants to end the war fast. Results over process.
2) He respects Putin and wants a good relationship with Russia. 👉
November 24, 2025 at 7:54 PM
The question I get asked most often is how to understand Trump's push-me-pull-me Ukraine policy. To me there are a few constants that don't change:
1) He really wants to end the war fast. Results over process.
2) He respects Putin and wants a good relationship with Russia. 👉
1) He really wants to end the war fast. Results over process.
2) He respects Putin and wants a good relationship with Russia. 👉
"To Putin, this proposal is proof of his victory. If the US is offering terms like these, then in his view it has surrendered and is ready to accept his demands," says Boris Bondarev, who quit Russia's diplomatic service in protest over the war. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/21/t...
Trump’s Peace Plan Favors Russia. Putin Still Won’t Accept It. - The Moscow Times
Opinion | The Ukraine war peace plan proposed by the Trump administration has, unsurprisingly, triggered a storm of reactions across the press, social media and among experts.
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:06 PM
"To Putin, this proposal is proof of his victory. If the US is offering terms like these, then in his view it has surrendered and is ready to accept his demands," says Boris Bondarev, who quit Russia's diplomatic service in protest over the war. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/21/t...
"Ageing and declining capacity within the senior ranks further deepen the crisis inside Putin's governance system. Lavrov turned 75 this year, and the president's foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, is 78."
nestcentre.org/the-crisis-o...
nestcentre.org/the-crisis-o...
The crisis of influence: How war and administrative stagnation undermine Russia’s foreign policy
Russia’s foreign policy is in crisis, weakened by war, ageing leadership, and a steady loss of regional influence
nestcentre.org
November 17, 2025 at 6:46 PM
"Ageing and declining capacity within the senior ranks further deepen the crisis inside Putin's governance system. Lavrov turned 75 this year, and the president's foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, is 78."
nestcentre.org/the-crisis-o...
nestcentre.org/the-crisis-o...
Kremlinology 101, by Alexander Baunov: "The failure of the Budapest summit is the result of the Russian system of artificially creating a foreign policy crisis. When one such crisis proves insufficient to intimidate the enemy, a new one is needed." carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
How the Kremlin Lost Trump
The collapse of the Budapest summit is an inevitable result of the Russian system of artificially creating foreign policy crises in order to achieve a desired outcome.
carnegieendowment.org
November 14, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Kremlinology 101, by Alexander Baunov: "The failure of the Budapest summit is the result of the Russian system of artificially creating a foreign policy crisis. When one such crisis proves insufficient to intimidate the enemy, a new one is needed." carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Pokrovsk, Ukraine. Portrait of a city in war by Tyler Hicks. View for free: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/w...
What Our Photographer Saw as a Safe City Became a Blood Bath
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Pokrovsk, Ukraine. Portrait of a city in war by Tyler Hicks. View for free: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/w...
Rewatched Aki Kaurismäki’s “Le Havre” (2011). It does not pretend to offer any solutions to the migration crisis, but it does answer the question of how to retain your humanity when a destitute stranger washes up on your doorstep. As timely as ever. www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqhA...
Le Havre (2011) Movie Trailer HD - TIFF - New York Film Festival NYFF
YouTube video by Rotten Tomatoes Trailers
www.youtube.com
November 12, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Rewatched Aki Kaurismäki’s “Le Havre” (2011). It does not pretend to offer any solutions to the migration crisis, but it does answer the question of how to retain your humanity when a destitute stranger washes up on your doorstep. As timely as ever. www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqhA...
I've often heard about wounded Ukrainian troops getting evacuated by robots but never understood exactly how. No longer—this brilliant piece of reporting by C.J. Chivers is a harrowing trip into the kill zone and back. Read for free: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/m...
A Harrowing Escape From the Drone-Infested Hellscape of Ukraine’s Front Lines
www.nytimes.com
November 5, 2025 at 9:32 PM
I've often heard about wounded Ukrainian troops getting evacuated by robots but never understood exactly how. No longer—this brilliant piece of reporting by C.J. Chivers is a harrowing trip into the kill zone and back. Read for free: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/m...
When in doubt, say that you've tested another nuclear weapon.
October 29, 2025 at 5:02 PM
When in doubt, say that you've tested another nuclear weapon.
Pokrovsk is on the brink—one more reason Putin doesn't want a ceasefire now.
"Pokrovsk faces its own final act in an environment of asphyxiating drone saturation at a level we have not seen in previous battles," warns Francis Farrell. kyivindependent.com/analysis-pok...
"Pokrovsk faces its own final act in an environment of asphyxiating drone saturation at a level we have not seen in previous battles," warns Francis Farrell. kyivindependent.com/analysis-pok...
Analysis: Pokrovsk on the brink as Russian troops, drones infiltrate deeper into Ukraine’s fortress city
At first, the pictures went viral for another reason.
Two Ukrainian civilians were shot dead and another injured on the roadside, the victims of another Russian war crime that was as everyday as it w...
kyivindependent.com
October 22, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Pokrovsk is on the brink—one more reason Putin doesn't want a ceasefire now.
"Pokrovsk faces its own final act in an environment of asphyxiating drone saturation at a level we have not seen in previous battles," warns Francis Farrell. kyivindependent.com/analysis-pok...
"Pokrovsk faces its own final act in an environment of asphyxiating drone saturation at a level we have not seen in previous battles," warns Francis Farrell. kyivindependent.com/analysis-pok...
No, Putin's phone call didn't sink a big Tomahawk announcement. But Trump heard Zelensky ask for weapons while Putin suggested more summitry.
We are not back to square one but at least back to Anchorage. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
We are not back to square one but at least back to Anchorage. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
Truth Social
Truth Social is America's
truthsocial.com
October 17, 2025 at 10:07 PM
No, Putin's phone call didn't sink a big Tomahawk announcement. But Trump heard Zelensky ask for weapons while Putin suggested more summitry.
We are not back to square one but at least back to Anchorage. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
We are not back to square one but at least back to Anchorage. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
The chill in the Trump-Putin relationship, if there ever was one, is over. With today's phone call, and a follow-on summit in Budapest, Putin will have the first and last word on Zelensky's White House meeting. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
Truth Social
Truth Social is America's
truthsocial.com
October 16, 2025 at 6:02 PM
The chill in the Trump-Putin relationship, if there ever was one, is over. With today's phone call, and a follow-on summit in Budapest, Putin will have the first and last word on Zelensky's White House meeting. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
Reposted by Lucian Kim
Putin is right about one thing—the root causes of Russia's war against Ukraine will not go away.
Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...
Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...
RBmedia | Putin's Revenge
Listen to the audiobook Putin's Revenge, written by Lucian Kim, narrated by David Lee Huynh.
rbmediaglobal.com
October 7, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Putin is right about one thing—the root causes of Russia's war against Ukraine will not go away.
Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...
Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...
Putin is right about one thing—the root causes of Russia's war against Ukraine will not go away.
Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...
Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...
RBmedia | Putin's Revenge
Listen to the audiobook Putin's Revenge, written by Lucian Kim, narrated by David Lee Huynh.
rbmediaglobal.com
October 7, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Putin is right about one thing—the root causes of Russia's war against Ukraine will not go away.
Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...
Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...
Join @crisisgroup.org for a 7-minute tour of Africa, from São Tomé and Príncipe to Libya and Mali, tracing the growing reach of Russia's Africa Corps (né Wagner). www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...
MAPPING CONFLICT | Russia’s Growing Influence in Africa
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
www.youtube.com
October 2, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Join @crisisgroup.org for a 7-minute tour of Africa, from São Tomé and Príncipe to Libya and Mali, tracing the growing reach of Russia's Africa Corps (né Wagner). www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...
Reposted by Lucian Kim
My thoughts on the Quantico meeting
Trump’s Speech to Generals Was Incitement to Violence Against Americans
Military leaders’ quiet professionalism offers hope amid a maelstrom.
foreignpolicy.com
October 1, 2025 at 3:39 PM
My thoughts on the Quantico meeting
As someone who has covered Putin for 20+ years, I'm always surprised by how much speculation surrounds his intentions. Although Putin dissembles, he also says what he thinks—it's just that people don't want to hear him. Here's what he said today about Zelensky and a peace deal:
September 5, 2025 at 7:21 PM
As someone who has covered Putin for 20+ years, I'm always surprised by how much speculation surrounds his intentions. Although Putin dissembles, he also says what he thinks—it's just that people don't want to hear him. Here's what he said today about Zelensky and a peace deal:
"First they swarm us with drones and bomb drops. Then they come in to clear the position. We hear their voices, it's usually two of them, and the firefight starts."
Essential reporting on the Ukrainian troops holding the line, by @francisjfarrell. kyivindependent.com/behind-ukrai...
Essential reporting on the Ukrainian troops holding the line, by @francisjfarrell. kyivindependent.com/behind-ukrai...
Behind Ukraine’s manpower crisis lies a bleak new battlefield reality for infantry
Editor’s Note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only.
DONETSK OBLAST – Since he first v...
kyivindependent.com
September 5, 2025 at 6:21 PM
"First they swarm us with drones and bomb drops. Then they come in to clear the position. We hear their voices, it's usually two of them, and the firefight starts."
Essential reporting on the Ukrainian troops holding the line, by @francisjfarrell. kyivindependent.com/behind-ukrai...
Essential reporting on the Ukrainian troops holding the line, by @francisjfarrell. kyivindependent.com/behind-ukrai...
Reposted by Lucian Kim
President lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Pd...
Turkmenistan's president lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet
YouTube video by The Telegraph
www.youtube.com
August 27, 2025 at 2:24 PM
President lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Pd...
Reposted by Lucian Kim
Mid-August's flurry of news, speculation, & summitry made it hard to keep track of reality. To help, we've got last week's commentary from @crisisgroup.org's @luciankim.bsky.social & Oleg Ignatov on the underlying facts of the present stage of the Russo-Ukrainian war & attendant diplomacy. A 🧵. 1/12
Beyond the Ukraine Summits: Five Realities after Three Years of War | International Crisis Group
As the dust settles on two whirlwind summits, it is clear only that diplomacy aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine must meet a higher bar. Crisis Group experts offer observations about five realiti...
www.crisisgroup.org
August 27, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Mid-August's flurry of news, speculation, & summitry made it hard to keep track of reality. To help, we've got last week's commentary from @crisisgroup.org's @luciankim.bsky.social & Oleg Ignatov on the underlying facts of the present stage of the Russo-Ukrainian war & attendant diplomacy. A 🧵. 1/12
President lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Pd...
Turkmenistan's president lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet
YouTube video by The Telegraph
www.youtube.com
August 27, 2025 at 2:24 PM
President lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Pd...
Reposted by Lucian Kim
Worth noting is Lavrov's remark that Putin recognizes Zelensky as "de facto head of regime" and is ready to meet with him—but that when the time comes to sign any agreement, there will need to be a Ukrainian representative deemed legitimate by the Kremlin. Remember that.
August 25, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Worth noting is Lavrov's remark that Putin recognizes Zelensky as "de facto head of regime" and is ready to meet with him—but that when the time comes to sign any agreement, there will need to be a Ukrainian representative deemed legitimate by the Kremlin. Remember that.
Reposted by Lucian Kim
(Also, it is incorrect to say WW2, like all major conflicts, was settled by some kind of negotiation. Both Germany and Japan surrendered unconditionally and faced military occupation; their opinion did not count.)
August 25, 2025 at 8:25 PM
(Also, it is incorrect to say WW2, like all major conflicts, was settled by some kind of negotiation. Both Germany and Japan surrendered unconditionally and faced military occupation; their opinion did not count.)
Reposted by Lucian Kim
JD Vance boils disagreement down to security guarantees (critical to Ukraine) vs. borders (critical to Russia).
Yes for Kyiv, no for Moscow. Putin doesn't want new territories per se; he wants to revassilize Ukraine—that is the crux of the conflict. www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...
Yes for Kyiv, no for Moscow. Putin doesn't want new territories per se; he wants to revassilize Ukraine—that is the crux of the conflict. www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...
Meet the Press – August 24, 2025
Vice President JD Vance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Monica Alba, Matt Gorman, Fmr. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, and Amna Nawaz
www.nbcnews.com
August 25, 2025 at 8:17 PM
JD Vance boils disagreement down to security guarantees (critical to Ukraine) vs. borders (critical to Russia).
Yes for Kyiv, no for Moscow. Putin doesn't want new territories per se; he wants to revassilize Ukraine—that is the crux of the conflict. www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...
Yes for Kyiv, no for Moscow. Putin doesn't want new territories per se; he wants to revassilize Ukraine—that is the crux of the conflict. www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...
Reposted by Lucian Kim
Almost no news in NBC's 50-minute Lavrov interview, an avalanche of Kremlin talking points ("2014 coup", "Nazis") and denials "no civilian targeting", "no Bucha"). Lavrov seemed uncharacteristically nervous, twisting a paper clip for a good part of the interview.
August 25, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Almost no news in NBC's 50-minute Lavrov interview, an avalanche of Kremlin talking points ("2014 coup", "Nazis") and denials "no civilian targeting", "no Bucha"). Lavrov seemed uncharacteristically nervous, twisting a paper clip for a good part of the interview.