Louise Murphy
@louisemurphy.bsky.social
Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on employment, young people and health | views my own
Great new blog from Alex.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
November 25, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Great new blog from Alex.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future...
November 12, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future...
Finally, it's important to think about what this weakening pay growth means for workers.
Average weekly pay has increased by just £3 in real terms over the past year – not even enough to cover the cost of a Tesco meal deal.
Average weekly pay has increased by just £3 in real terms over the past year – not even enough to cover the cost of a Tesco meal deal.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Finally, it's important to think about what this weakening pay growth means for workers.
Average weekly pay has increased by just £3 in real terms over the past year – not even enough to cover the cost of a Tesco meal deal.
Average weekly pay has increased by just £3 in real terms over the past year – not even enough to cover the cost of a Tesco meal deal.
Pay growth has been fastest in low-paying sectors, with April’s minimum wage increase playing an important role.
Since January 2025, nominal wages in wholesale, retail and hospitality have grown at four-times the rate (5.6 per cent) of wages in finance and business (1.3 per cent).
Since January 2025, nominal wages in wholesale, retail and hospitality have grown at four-times the rate (5.6 per cent) of wages in finance and business (1.3 per cent).
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Pay growth has been fastest in low-paying sectors, with April’s minimum wage increase playing an important role.
Since January 2025, nominal wages in wholesale, retail and hospitality have grown at four-times the rate (5.6 per cent) of wages in finance and business (1.3 per cent).
Since January 2025, nominal wages in wholesale, retail and hospitality have grown at four-times the rate (5.6 per cent) of wages in finance and business (1.3 per cent).
Across the whole economy, regular earnings grew by 4.6 per cent over the year to September.
After we account for inflation, wages are still growing, albeit very slowly (at just 0.5 per cent over the past year).
After we account for inflation, wages are still growing, albeit very slowly (at just 0.5 per cent over the past year).
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Across the whole economy, regular earnings grew by 4.6 per cent over the year to September.
After we account for inflation, wages are still growing, albeit very slowly (at just 0.5 per cent over the past year).
After we account for inflation, wages are still growing, albeit very slowly (at just 0.5 per cent over the past year).
This weakening labour market is also showing up in pay.
Short-term measures of pay growth suggest a rapid slowdown in recent months: the annualised three-month change in private sector pay fell to just 2.7 per cent in September.
Short-term measures of pay growth suggest a rapid slowdown in recent months: the annualised three-month change in private sector pay fell to just 2.7 per cent in September.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
This weakening labour market is also showing up in pay.
Short-term measures of pay growth suggest a rapid slowdown in recent months: the annualised three-month change in private sector pay fell to just 2.7 per cent in September.
Short-term measures of pay growth suggest a rapid slowdown in recent months: the annualised three-month change in private sector pay fell to just 2.7 per cent in September.
But the big news today is that unemployment has risen to 5 per cent for the first time since 2016 (outside of the pandemic period). This has happened more quickly than expected.
Worryingly, we’re almost at peak pandemic levels of unemployment – unemployment peaked at just 5.3 per cent in 2020.
Worryingly, we’re almost at peak pandemic levels of unemployment – unemployment peaked at just 5.3 per cent in 2020.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
But the big news today is that unemployment has risen to 5 per cent for the first time since 2016 (outside of the pandemic period). This has happened more quickly than expected.
Worryingly, we’re almost at peak pandemic levels of unemployment – unemployment peaked at just 5.3 per cent in 2020.
Worryingly, we’re almost at peak pandemic levels of unemployment – unemployment peaked at just 5.3 per cent in 2020.
As a result, our Resolution Foundation employment estimate (which combines payroll employment data with population estimates) has fallen to 75.1 per cent – well below the peak employment rate of 76.6 per cent in mid-2023.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
As a result, our Resolution Foundation employment estimate (which combines payroll employment data with population estimates) has fallen to 75.1 per cent – well below the peak employment rate of 76.6 per cent in mid-2023.
The number of payrolled employees fell by 32,000 in both September and October, meaning that payrolled employment is down by 180,000 since its peak in October last year.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
The number of payrolled employees fell by 32,000 in both September and October, meaning that payrolled employment is down by 180,000 since its peak in October last year.
Of course, researchers try to make sense of this by collating lots of different DWP data releases...
But we shouldn't expect journalists to do this every month. Until DWP publish their data more clearly, we shouldn't be surprised if misleading and unforgiving headlines keep coming.
But we shouldn't expect journalists to do this every month. Until DWP publish their data more clearly, we shouldn't be surprised if misleading and unforgiving headlines keep coming.
October 7, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Of course, researchers try to make sense of this by collating lots of different DWP data releases...
But we shouldn't expect journalists to do this every month. Until DWP publish their data more clearly, we shouldn't be surprised if misleading and unforgiving headlines keep coming.
But we shouldn't expect journalists to do this every month. Until DWP publish their data more clearly, we shouldn't be surprised if misleading and unforgiving headlines keep coming.
Case study 2: UC stats get written up as 'rise in claimants not required to work' - and anyone glancing at this chart would think there's been an extraordinary change in benefit claims. You have to read footnotes/surrounding text to know that there's been a corresponding fall in ESA claims...
October 7, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Case study 2: UC stats get written up as 'rise in claimants not required to work' - and anyone glancing at this chart would think there's been an extraordinary change in benefit claims. You have to read footnotes/surrounding text to know that there's been a corresponding fall in ESA claims...
Case study 1: DWP count people who go through a Work Capability Assessment when they move from ESA to UC as a 'new' claimant. So when you draw a time-series chart of Work Capability Assessments - even if you limit it to 'initial' assessments - you see a big spike in recent months...
October 7, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Case study 1: DWP count people who go through a Work Capability Assessment when they move from ESA to UC as a 'new' claimant. So when you draw a time-series chart of Work Capability Assessments - even if you limit it to 'initial' assessments - you see a big spike in recent months...
Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work.
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
September 29, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work.
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
… More than three-quarters of new UC claimants who go through a Work Capability Assessment end up in the LCWRA group (shown in red), up hugely since the introduction of UC, and up by around 9 percentage points over the past year.
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
… More than three-quarters of new UC claimants who go through a Work Capability Assessment end up in the LCWRA group (shown in red), up hugely since the introduction of UC, and up by around 9 percentage points over the past year.
Second, an increasing share of health-related benefit claimants who go through a Work Capability Assessment are ending up in the ‘LCWRA’ group, where they have no work requirements and receive an additional payment of £423/month….
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Second, an increasing share of health-related benefit claimants who go through a Work Capability Assessment are ending up in the ‘LCWRA’ group, where they have no work requirements and receive an additional payment of £423/month….
First, the total number of households in receipt of a health-related benefit is rising. Although part of the uptick in the UC-health caseload reflects migration from ESA, the overall number of families on any type of health-related benefit is now over 3m (compared to 2.3m pre-pandemic).
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
First, the total number of households in receipt of a health-related benefit is rising. Although part of the uptick in the UC-health caseload reflects migration from ESA, the overall number of families on any type of health-related benefit is now over 3m (compared to 2.3m pre-pandemic).
...And although the overall *number* of women with UC health claims is greater than the number of men with UC health claims, a higher *proportion* of male UC claimants receive a health element. This reflects gender differences in other types of UC claims (e.g. due to caring responsibilities).
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
...And although the overall *number* of women with UC health claims is greater than the number of men with UC health claims, a higher *proportion* of male UC claimants receive a health element. This reflects gender differences in other types of UC claims (e.g. due to caring responsibilities).
Turning to look at patterns by age, and it’s unsurprising that UC claims with a health component are most common among older people: more than three-fifths (62%) of UC claimants aged 60-64 have a health element...
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Turning to look at patterns by age, and it’s unsurprising that UC claims with a health component are most common among older people: more than three-fifths (62%) of UC claimants aged 60-64 have a health element...
When we zoom in to look at local authority data, we see even greater variation.
Over half of claimants in Inverclyde have a UC health award, compared to only a quarter in Newham. It’s noticeable that the top 10 LAs are in Scotland and Wales, and the bottom 10 are in and around London…
Over half of claimants in Inverclyde have a UC health award, compared to only a quarter in Newham. It’s noticeable that the top 10 LAs are in Scotland and Wales, and the bottom 10 are in and around London…
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
When we zoom in to look at local authority data, we see even greater variation.
Over half of claimants in Inverclyde have a UC health award, compared to only a quarter in Newham. It’s noticeable that the top 10 LAs are in Scotland and Wales, and the bottom 10 are in and around London…
Over half of claimants in Inverclyde have a UC health award, compared to only a quarter in Newham. It’s noticeable that the top 10 LAs are in Scotland and Wales, and the bottom 10 are in and around London…
Across GB as a whole, 37% of UC claimants are in receipt of UC health – but this varies hugely between different parts of the UK.
Almost half (46%) of claimants in Scotland have a UC health award, compared to less than a third (29%) in London.
Almost half (46%) of claimants in Scotland have a UC health award, compared to less than a third (29%) in London.
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Across GB as a whole, 37% of UC claimants are in receipt of UC health – but this varies hugely between different parts of the UK.
Almost half (46%) of claimants in Scotland have a UC health award, compared to less than a third (29%) in London.
Almost half (46%) of claimants in Scotland have a UC health award, compared to less than a third (29%) in London.
2. More generally, an increasing share of NEET young people are economically inactive rather than unemployed.
This matters - it means these young people are more disengaged from the labour market, and are likely to remain NEET for a longer time.
This matters - it means these young people are more disengaged from the labour market, and are likely to remain NEET for a longer time.
August 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
2. More generally, an increasing share of NEET young people are economically inactive rather than unemployed.
This matters - it means these young people are more disengaged from the labour market, and are likely to remain NEET for a longer time.
This matters - it means these young people are more disengaged from the labour market, and are likely to remain NEET for a longer time.
1. The number of children and young people with poor mental health is on the rise, and the number of young people who are out of work due to ill health has doubled over the past decade.
August 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
1. The number of children and young people with poor mental health is on the rise, and the number of young people who are out of work due to ill health has doubled over the past decade.
When we look at other data sources, it does look like there has been a fall in the number of young people who are in employment.
E.g. when we look at HMRC PAYE data, there has been a reduction in the number of under 25s who are in employment over the past year.
E.g. when we look at HMRC PAYE data, there has been a reduction in the number of under 25s who are in employment over the past year.
August 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
When we look at other data sources, it does look like there has been a fall in the number of young people who are in employment.
E.g. when we look at HMRC PAYE data, there has been a reduction in the number of under 25s who are in employment over the past year.
E.g. when we look at HMRC PAYE data, there has been a reduction in the number of under 25s who are in employment over the past year.
LFS sample sizes are low, leading to large confidence intervals. But it does look like the number - and proportion - of 16-24-year-olds who are NEET has increased over the past year. The LFS data suggests that more than one-in-eight young people are NEET.
August 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
LFS sample sizes are low, leading to large confidence intervals. But it does look like the number - and proportion - of 16-24-year-olds who are NEET has increased over the past year. The LFS data suggests that more than one-in-eight young people are NEET.
First of all, lets not obsess over NEET numbers approaching 1 million.
Why? The number of young people aged 16-24 has increased substantially over the past few years, reflecting changing birth patterns in the 2000s.
Why? The number of young people aged 16-24 has increased substantially over the past few years, reflecting changing birth patterns in the 2000s.
August 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
First of all, lets not obsess over NEET numbers approaching 1 million.
Why? The number of young people aged 16-24 has increased substantially over the past few years, reflecting changing birth patterns in the 2000s.
Why? The number of young people aged 16-24 has increased substantially over the past few years, reflecting changing birth patterns in the 2000s.