Louise Murphy
@louisemurphy.bsky.social
Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on employment, young people and health | views my own
Reposted by Louise Murphy
New net migration figures show that international net-migration falls to 204k (like 2000s average).
Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure.
This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure.
This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
November 27, 2025 at 11:16 AM
New net migration figures show that international net-migration falls to 204k (like 2000s average).
Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure.
This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure.
This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
The Chancellor has scrapped the two-child limit, benefitting more than half a million families.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
November 26, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The Chancellor has scrapped the two-child limit, benefitting more than half a million families.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit:
- 6 in 10 had 3 children.
- 6 in 10 had at least one person in work.
- And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.
Reminder - increasing the number of face-to-face assessments for PIP is a red herring.
The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.
The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.
November 26, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Reminder - increasing the number of face-to-face assessments for PIP is a red herring.
The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.
The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy.
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
November 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation
Reposted by Louise Murphy
The 2026 minimum wage rates have been announced:
NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%)
18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%)
16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%)
Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:
NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%)
18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%)
16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%)
Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:
November 25, 2025 at 10:29 PM
The 2026 minimum wage rates have been announced:
NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%)
18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%)
16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%)
Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:
NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%)
18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%)
16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%)
Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:
Great new blog from Alex.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
November 25, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Great new blog from Alex.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
The opportunity gap facing boys from low-income families at age 5 and beyond | Institute for Government
Early attainment gaps mean some boys don't just start behind, they stay behind.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 20, 2025 at 7:41 AM
NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
🧵⬇️
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future...
November 12, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future...
Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside).
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
November 11, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside).
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.
What should we make of the Mayfield 'Keep Britain Working' review, published this week?
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
From Review to reality • Resolution Foundation
There’s always a danger that official reviews end up generating a lot of talk and symbolic gestures, but don’t set out meaningful steps for change. That’s the challenge faced by the just-published rev...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 7, 2025 at 9:45 AM
What should we make of the Mayfield 'Keep Britain Working' review, published this week?
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further.
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 AM
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
Research Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is looking for an exceptional candidate to help lead our research team. This is an exciting opportunity to join the Foundation’s senior leadership as we seek to turn around t...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 27, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...
There are close to one million young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) - but before we can fix this problem, we need to understand who these young people really are.
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
False starts • Resolution Foundation
Nearly one million young people are now NEET (not in education, employment or training). Tackling this crisis requires stronger enforcement of participation requirements for 16-17-year-olds and an exp...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 21, 2025 at 7:55 AM
There are close to one million young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) - but before we can fix this problem, we need to understand who these young people really are.
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
It's increasingly perplexing that DWP aren't prioritising improving their stats to better reflect the move from legacy benefits to UC.
Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!
Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!
October 7, 2025 at 8:13 AM
It's increasingly perplexing that DWP aren't prioritising improving their stats to better reflect the move from legacy benefits to UC.
Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!
Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!
Reposted by Louise Murphy
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
Children who receive support are more likely to be out-of-work or education, receiving out-of-work benefits, or receiving health-related benefits at age 22.
There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.
There is very little evidence on how systems of support could improve these long-term outcomes.
October 3, 2025 at 11:35 AM
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work.
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
September 29, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work.
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Inflation holding steady at 3.8% leaves the UK with the highest headline CPI inflation in the G7 and the joint highest (with Iceland, also 3.8% in Aug) among OECD rich countries. A chunk of this is policy related (NI rise, higher administered prices, eg water bills, and food packaging regulation).
September 17, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Inflation holding steady at 3.8% leaves the UK with the highest headline CPI inflation in the G7 and the joint highest (with Iceland, also 3.8% in Aug) among OECD rich countries. A chunk of this is policy related (NI rise, higher administered prices, eg water bills, and food packaging regulation).
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Today’s ONS data show a labour market continuing to cool, but there are signs of calming after a jobs crunch in the first part of 2025. Here is our thread (fom me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social)
Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
September 16, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Today’s ONS data show a labour market continuing to cool, but there are signs of calming after a jobs crunch in the first part of 2025. Here is our thread (fom me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social)
Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
Reposted by Louise Murphy
New piece out today on recent market moves.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2025 • Resolution Foundation
UK Government borrowing costs have once again been in the headlines. Recent moves have, however, been overblown: since benchmark 10-year yields peaked at post-financial-crisis highs of 4.9 per cent in...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
September 12, 2025 at 11:21 AM
New piece out today on recent market moves.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
Reposted by Louise Murphy
Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
September 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
New @resfoundation.bsky.social blog on what the latest Universal Credit Health data tells us about benefit claims across Britain
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...
What the latest Universal Credit Health data tells us about benefit claims across Britain • Resolution Foundation
New data out this week shows that the proportion of UC claimants in receipt of UC health continues to rise: over a third (37 per cent) of people in receipt of UC are in the health group, up from 32 pe...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
September 12, 2025 at 3:00 PM
New @resfoundation.bsky.social blog on what the latest Universal Credit Health data tells us about benefit claims across Britain
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...
New UC data out today shows that more than a third (37%) of all UC claimants are in receipt of UC health, up from 32% this time last year.
Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
September 11, 2025 at 3:03 PM
New UC data out today shows that more than a third (37%) of all UC claimants are in receipt of UC health, up from 32% this time last year.
Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
This is excellent. There's now broad consensus that the current benefits system isn't doing a good enough job at supporting disabled people into employment, but until now there hasn't been much good evidence about what 'better employment support' actually looks like.
My final piece of work for @neweconomics.bsky.social was a collaboration with Camden Council & a brilliant team of staff there
We ran a test & learn pilot to explore how to increase voluntary engagement with employment support among ill & disabled residents 1/3
We ran a test & learn pilot to explore how to increase voluntary engagement with employment support among ill & disabled residents 1/3
August 29, 2025 at 4:49 PM
This is excellent. There's now broad consensus that the current benefits system isn't doing a good enough job at supporting disabled people into employment, but until now there hasn't been much good evidence about what 'better employment support' actually looks like.
Big moment - all PIP claimants in Scotland have been transferred to Adult Disability Payment.
Why does this matter?
1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky
www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...
Why does this matter?
1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky
www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...
Adult Disability Payment transfer complete
Delivering a new approach to disability assistance ‘rooted in compassion’.
www.gov.scot
August 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Big moment - all PIP claimants in Scotland have been transferred to Adult Disability Payment.
Why does this matter?
1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky
www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...
Why does this matter?
1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky
www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...