Lee Morgenbesser
@lmorgenbesser.bsky.social
Political Scientist, Griffith University | Fellow, Australian Research Council | Authoritarian politics, democratization, dictators, election observation, Southeast Asian politics.
Pinned
Crazy or Cunning: The Trump Contradiction
Critics’ two big theories explaining Trump are associated with different kinds of autocrats.
www.thebulwark.com
PUBLISHED! I’m delighted to share my @thebulwark.com piece 🤓
I try to reconcile two opposing views of Trump: that he is a clever “playbook autocrat” who is diligently dismantling democracy; or that he is a crazy “mad king” who wrecks everything he touches
Enjoy!
www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...
I try to reconcile two opposing views of Trump: that he is a clever “playbook autocrat” who is diligently dismantling democracy; or that he is a crazy “mad king” who wrecks everything he touches
Enjoy!
www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...
What happens when you combine @jacobnyrup.bsky.social fondness for turning dictators into Pepper Pig characters with my PowerPoint slides for the course I teach, Way of the Dictator. You get one of the greatest collaborations in the history of comparative authoritarianism 😆
@chknutsen.bsky.social
@chknutsen.bsky.social
November 25, 2025 at 6:47 PM
What happens when you combine @jacobnyrup.bsky.social fondness for turning dictators into Pepper Pig characters with my PowerPoint slides for the course I teach, Way of the Dictator. You get one of the greatest collaborations in the history of comparative authoritarianism 😆
@chknutsen.bsky.social
@chknutsen.bsky.social
I’ve lost track of how many times Orban’s regime has been used as a model for Trump’s regime. That comparison has never made sense; it has a laziness about it. Trump’s rule is not sophisticated like Orban’s
Instead, pick a 1970s African dictator and you will find Trump’s inspiration. Warts and all
Instead, pick a 1970s African dictator and you will find Trump’s inspiration. Warts and all
November 24, 2025 at 7:00 PM
I’ve lost track of how many times Orban’s regime has been used as a model for Trump’s regime. That comparison has never made sense; it has a laziness about it. Trump’s rule is not sophisticated like Orban’s
Instead, pick a 1970s African dictator and you will find Trump’s inspiration. Warts and all
Instead, pick a 1970s African dictator and you will find Trump’s inspiration. Warts and all
Good riddance! Nine months on and I think my argument that DOGE was an attempt at state capture (and not a coup) has held up well. The actions of Musk and co. have clearly produced worst decisions, less accountability, and more corruption.
theconversation.com/is-elon-musk...
theconversation.com/is-elon-musk...
November 23, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Good riddance! Nine months on and I think my argument that DOGE was an attempt at state capture (and not a coup) has held up well. The actions of Musk and co. have clearly produced worst decisions, less accountability, and more corruption.
theconversation.com/is-elon-musk...
theconversation.com/is-elon-musk...
Like I said: The thing about "bad" authoritarianism is the transparent nature of its repression, whereby dictators target their perceived enemies without a plausible justification for doing so.
It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool.
It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool.
HUGE development IN hearing for Comey selective prosecution motion, It turns out that the grand jury NEVER saw the operative indictment. Whole separate basis for dismissal. Standby for more.
November 19, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Like I said: The thing about "bad" authoritarianism is the transparent nature of its repression, whereby dictators target their perceived enemies without a plausible justification for doing so.
It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool.
It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool.
Trump plastering his orange face all over US currency will be put him in the same company as some of history’s worst dictators, including Mao Zedong, Bashar al-Assad, and Saddam Hussein. It is a sign that political power is personalized.
people.com/donald-trump...
people.com/donald-trump...
November 10, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Trump plastering his orange face all over US currency will be put him in the same company as some of history’s worst dictators, including Mao Zedong, Bashar al-Assad, and Saddam Hussein. It is a sign that political power is personalized.
people.com/donald-trump...
people.com/donald-trump...
Like I fucking said.
To repeat: I have studied a lot of cases of autocratization over the past 15 years. Wrote about them, taught about them, consulting about them.
I do not recall an opposition so apathetic, ignorant, and inept as the @democrats.org. They cling to their power, rather than fight for democracy. Shame.
I do not recall an opposition so apathetic, ignorant, and inept as the @democrats.org. They cling to their power, rather than fight for democracy. Shame.
November 10, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Like I fucking said.
I’ve been commissioned to write an op-ed on why the resistance to democratic backsliding in the United States is failing (and what to do about it).
Given the many American friends and colleagues I have, it just won’t be an enjoyable piece to write 🙃
Given the many American friends and colleagues I have, it just won’t be an enjoyable piece to write 🙃
November 3, 2025 at 8:24 AM
I’ve been commissioned to write an op-ed on why the resistance to democratic backsliding in the United States is failing (and what to do about it).
Given the many American friends and colleagues I have, it just won’t be an enjoyable piece to write 🙃
Given the many American friends and colleagues I have, it just won’t be an enjoyable piece to write 🙃
Just getting out in front of everyone to say that I think Trump will propose building a new capital city by the end of his term (if there is an end).
Washington D.C is a crime-ridden hellhole etc etc, and America needs a big, beautiful city etc etc.
Washington D.C is a crime-ridden hellhole etc etc, and America needs a big, beautiful city etc etc.
donald trump is speaking into a microphone in front of a sign that says nabtu
ALT: donald trump is speaking into a microphone in front of a sign that says nabtu
media.tenor.com
October 26, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Just getting out in front of everyone to say that I think Trump will propose building a new capital city by the end of his term (if there is an end).
Washington D.C is a crime-ridden hellhole etc etc, and America needs a big, beautiful city etc etc.
Washington D.C is a crime-ridden hellhole etc etc, and America needs a big, beautiful city etc etc.
In the transition to autocratic rule, independent media outlets face a choice between (1) resisting and eventually facing consequences; (2) self-censoring and hoping to survive; and (3) becoming a propaganda arm of the new regime.
@washingtonpost.com = 3
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
@washingtonpost.com = 3
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | In defense of the White House ballroom
Donald Trump vs. the NIMBYs
www.washingtonpost.com
October 26, 2025 at 10:27 AM
In the transition to autocratic rule, independent media outlets face a choice between (1) resisting and eventually facing consequences; (2) self-censoring and hoping to survive; and (3) becoming a propaganda arm of the new regime.
@washingtonpost.com = 3
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
@washingtonpost.com = 3
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
As someone who is writing a book on how authoritarian regimes recruit fake observers to endorse their sham elections, I suspect this will be much worse then actually advertised..
Test run for 2026. Here's what I wrote in the NY Times about the federal government potentially interfering with the 2026 elections and what we need to do about it. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/o...
October 24, 2025 at 8:41 PM
As someone who is writing a book on how authoritarian regimes recruit fake observers to endorse their sham elections, I suspect this will be much worse then actually advertised..
This tactic is used by dictators to fragment the internal security apparatus and consolidate power.
In Zaire, Mobutu kept kept the huge personal fortune he had amassed from pilfering the country’s diamond and copper exports as a ‘rainy day’ fund, which included paying the army’s wage bill.
In Zaire, Mobutu kept kept the huge personal fortune he had amassed from pilfering the country’s diamond and copper exports as a ‘rainy day’ fund, which included paying the army’s wage bill.
New: The Pentagon confirms to CNN it will funnel $130M from an anonymous Trump “friend” toward military pay.
Asked about the donor’s identity and any foreign or domestic entanglements, the WH referred questions to DoD. DoD then referred questions back to the WH
www.cnn.com/2025/10/24/p...
Asked about the donor’s identity and any foreign or domestic entanglements, the WH referred questions to DoD. DoD then referred questions back to the WH
www.cnn.com/2025/10/24/p...
Pentagon to use $130 million donation from anonymous Trump ‘friend’ to pay military members | CNN Politics
The Trump administration plans to funnel a $130 million donation from an anonymous ally of President Donald Trump toward paying military service members during the government shutdown, the Defense Dep...
www.cnn.com
October 24, 2025 at 8:32 PM
This tactic is used by dictators to fragment the internal security apparatus and consolidate power.
In Zaire, Mobutu kept kept the huge personal fortune he had amassed from pilfering the country’s diamond and copper exports as a ‘rainy day’ fund, which included paying the army’s wage bill.
In Zaire, Mobutu kept kept the huge personal fortune he had amassed from pilfering the country’s diamond and copper exports as a ‘rainy day’ fund, which included paying the army’s wage bill.
Trump's abuse of democracy is so normalized right now that everything is up for grabs.
If there are not mass protests against forced disappearances, gross media censorship, and overt corruption happening daily right now, there won't be protests against him staying in office in a few years time.
If there are not mass protests against forced disappearances, gross media censorship, and overt corruption happening daily right now, there won't be protests against him staying in office in a few years time.
October 22, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Trump's abuse of democracy is so normalized right now that everything is up for grabs.
If there are not mass protests against forced disappearances, gross media censorship, and overt corruption happening daily right now, there won't be protests against him staying in office in a few years time.
If there are not mass protests against forced disappearances, gross media censorship, and overt corruption happening daily right now, there won't be protests against him staying in office in a few years time.
I don’t think anyone will try stop him from staying in office beyond his term.
Breaking News: President Trump is having the White House’s entire East Wing demolished to make way for his $200 million ballroom. The project is far more extensive than he initially let on.
Trump Will Demolish Entire White House East Wing for Ballroom: Live Updates
nyti.ms
October 22, 2025 at 8:30 PM
I don’t think anyone will try stop him from staying in office beyond his term.
Marcos: I will award loans to people acting as fronts for my interests.
Yanukovych: I will misuse carbon-emissions allowances.
Suharto: I will create charities for businesspeople to make donations.
Baby Doc: I will take a bit off the top of all foreign aid.
Trump: Just give me the fucking money.
Yanukovych: I will misuse carbon-emissions allowances.
Suharto: I will create charities for businesspeople to make donations.
Baby Doc: I will take a bit off the top of all foreign aid.
Trump: Just give me the fucking money.
October 21, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Marcos: I will award loans to people acting as fronts for my interests.
Yanukovych: I will misuse carbon-emissions allowances.
Suharto: I will create charities for businesspeople to make donations.
Baby Doc: I will take a bit off the top of all foreign aid.
Trump: Just give me the fucking money.
Yanukovych: I will misuse carbon-emissions allowances.
Suharto: I will create charities for businesspeople to make donations.
Baby Doc: I will take a bit off the top of all foreign aid.
Trump: Just give me the fucking money.
Are there any spontaneous mass protests at the White House yet?
October 20, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Are there any spontaneous mass protests at the White House yet?
Here is an actual image of the national media cycle quickly moving on from the No Kings protests...
Scoop: Trump has started demolishing the White House's East Wing facade to build his ballroom. The president had claimed construction of the $250 million building wouldn’t ‘interfere’ with the existing White House structure. /W @ddiamond.bsky.social wapo.st/4hqBNiU
White House begins demolishing East Wing facade to build Trump’s ballroom
The president had claimed construction of the $250 million ballroom wouldn’t ‘interfere’ with the existing White House structure.
wapo.st
October 20, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Here is an actual image of the national media cycle quickly moving on from the No Kings protests...
Reposted by Lee Morgenbesser
“When our heroic law enforcement officers conduct operations, they clearly identify themselves as law enforcement,” DHS’ Tricia McLaughlin asserted, “while wearing masks to protect themselves from being targeted by highly sophisticated gangs.”
By @davidmcswane.bsky.social @hannahallam.bsky.social
By @davidmcswane.bsky.social @hannahallam.bsky.social
How Trump is Building a Violent, Shadowy Federal Police Force
Trump’s DHS appointees have dismantled civil rights guardrails, protected agents’ anonymity and encouraged them to wear masks, threatened groups that stood in their way, and overwhelmed legal challeng...
www.propublica.org
October 20, 2025 at 1:05 AM
“When our heroic law enforcement officers conduct operations, they clearly identify themselves as law enforcement,” DHS’ Tricia McLaughlin asserted, “while wearing masks to protect themselves from being targeted by highly sophisticated gangs.”
By @davidmcswane.bsky.social @hannahallam.bsky.social
By @davidmcswane.bsky.social @hannahallam.bsky.social
The only time those opposed to Trump captured the national media narrative was at the last No Kings protests (14 June). It lasted about two days and then everything defaulted back to the status quo.
A social movement is essential to ousting Trump, but so are several other tactics I am not seeing.
A social movement is essential to ousting Trump, but so are several other tactics I am not seeing.
America needs a mass social movement—now—to save itself from autocracy, David Brooks argues.
America Needs a Mass Movement—Now
Without one, America may sink into autocracy for decades.
bit.ly
October 16, 2025 at 12:19 AM
The only time those opposed to Trump captured the national media narrative was at the last No Kings protests (14 June). It lasted about two days and then everything defaulted back to the status quo.
A social movement is essential to ousting Trump, but so are several other tactics I am not seeing.
A social movement is essential to ousting Trump, but so are several other tactics I am not seeing.
A far larger problem than her indictment is that most Americans could not name the last five "opponents" the Trump administration has targeted using lawfare.
America is so far down the rabbit hole of normalizing abuses against democracy that, sadly, this event will eclipsed by the end of the week.
America is so far down the rabbit hole of normalizing abuses against democracy that, sadly, this event will eclipsed by the end of the week.
Breaking News: Letitia James, New York’s attorney general, is said to have been indicted after President Trump pushed the Justice Department to seek charges against her. James, who is accused of committing mortgage fraud, brought a civil case against Trump in 2022. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
October 9, 2025 at 11:12 PM
A far larger problem than her indictment is that most Americans could not name the last five "opponents" the Trump administration has targeted using lawfare.
America is so far down the rabbit hole of normalizing abuses against democracy that, sadly, this event will eclipsed by the end of the week.
America is so far down the rabbit hole of normalizing abuses against democracy that, sadly, this event will eclipsed by the end of the week.
“The bees are in the what now?”
October 1, 2025 at 9:52 PM
“The bees are in the what now?”
Has America’s descent into authoritarianism gone quicker than I expected? Yes
Did I think Americans would be more resistant to democratic backsliding? Omfg yes
Is written criticism of Trump redundant? Yes
Can expert opinion break through the noise? Maybe
Do I think a fascist regime is next? No
Did I think Americans would be more resistant to democratic backsliding? Omfg yes
Is written criticism of Trump redundant? Yes
Can expert opinion break through the noise? Maybe
Do I think a fascist regime is next? No
My thesis is that no matter how doomer you were in Nov. 2024, we're probably past your worst-case scenario for the first 9 months of this administration.
It's very strange for me to realize I wasn't pessimistic enough.
www.thebulwark.com/p/we-are-in-...
It's very strange for me to realize I wasn't pessimistic enough.
www.thebulwark.com/p/we-are-in-...
We Are in the Worst-Case Scenario
The November 2024 version of you would be shocked at what the September 2025 version accepts as reality.
www.thebulwark.com
September 30, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Has America’s descent into authoritarianism gone quicker than I expected? Yes
Did I think Americans would be more resistant to democratic backsliding? Omfg yes
Is written criticism of Trump redundant? Yes
Can expert opinion break through the noise? Maybe
Do I think a fascist regime is next? No
Did I think Americans would be more resistant to democratic backsliding? Omfg yes
Is written criticism of Trump redundant? Yes
Can expert opinion break through the noise? Maybe
Do I think a fascist regime is next? No
Any spontaneous mass protests happening in front of the Supreme Court? No?
BREAKING: The Supreme Court rules 6-3 to allow Trump’s “pocket rescission” of $4 billion in foreign aid funding, ruling that it’s unlikely the groups suing have standing to pursue the claim and that Trump’s foreign policy power outweighs their purported harms.
September 26, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Any spontaneous mass protests happening in front of the Supreme Court? No?
The thing about "bad" authoritarianism is the transparent nature of its repression, whereby dictators target their perceived enemies without a plausible justification for doing so.
It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...
It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...
Grand Jury Indicts Longtime Trump Target, Former F.B.I. Director James Comey
www.nytimes.com
September 25, 2025 at 11:27 PM
The thing about "bad" authoritarianism is the transparent nature of its repression, whereby dictators target their perceived enemies without a plausible justification for doing so.
It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...
It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...
If you thought Trump's press conference was filled with incompetence, recklessness, and cruelty, that's because being a "mad king" is part of his persona. I try to make sense of Trump's two-headed autocracy in this @thebulwark.com piece from last week...
www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...
www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...
Crazy or Cunning: The Trump Contradiction
Critics’ two big theories explaining Trump are associated with different kinds of autocrats.
www.thebulwark.com
September 23, 2025 at 1:10 AM
If you thought Trump's press conference was filled with incompetence, recklessness, and cruelty, that's because being a "mad king" is part of his persona. I try to make sense of Trump's two-headed autocracy in this @thebulwark.com piece from last week...
www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...
www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...
Does anyone know if there was a single *spontaneous* mass protest anywhere in the United States on Saturday? This is really important for gauging the level of resistance to democratic backsliding…
September 21, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Does anyone know if there was a single *spontaneous* mass protest anywhere in the United States on Saturday? This is really important for gauging the level of resistance to democratic backsliding…