Larry Warren
lfwarren.bsky.social
Larry Warren
@lfwarren.bsky.social
Senior Economist at the Census Bureau
Macro Labor, Market Power, and Firm Dynamics
Views are my own
Main takeaway: UI generosity modestly raises reservation & reemployment wages, but much of action is in increased collection of UI. This take-up margin dampens wage response. Policy levers on eligibility and costs of claiming and collecting UI benefits important, and interact with benefit levels.
September 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
We build a directed search model with endogenous take-up. Key insight: Higher generosity draws in lower-wage claimants, dampening the average wage response. In the absence of a collection margin, the wage response is stronger.
September 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
From CPS: • Reemployment wage premium for UI-eligible ≈ +9% vs. ineligible during expansions. • Take-up rate jumped from ~30% to ~40%, entirely due to higher benefits — not from changes in composition of unemployed or eligibles.
September 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
From BAM data we find: • Cross-section elasticity of reservation wages to UI is very small • Pandemic expansions raised reservation wages by only 8–12%. • Composition shifts: Relative to pre-pandemic, collectors were younger, nonwhite, and leisure/hospitality workers.
September 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
During COVID, UI generosity increased significantly ($600/$300 weekly supplements, plus expanded eligibility). A natural experiment to measure the pass-through from benefits to wages and who collects UI.
September 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
How do more generous unemployment benefits affect job search, reemployment wages, and the decision to claim UI benefits? We study this using detailed admin & survey data from BAM and CPS — and a directed search model with UI and endogenous take-up.
September 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Reposted by Larry Warren
ROFL = Real Outliers Fatally Lanced
TLDR = Too Lazy; Didn't Research
SMH = So Many Hypotheses
BRB = Bayes ... Really, Bayes?
IMHO = Is My Hypothesis Obvious?
DND = Distribution Not Defined
FAFO = Fanciful Analysis of Four Observations
JC = Jointly Comical
NFI = Never Forget Independence
July 14, 2025 at 2:20 PM
The work is mysterious and important.
March 17, 2025 at 2:42 PM