Leonardo Carella
@leonardocarella.bsky.social
Postdoc, University of Vienna, Department of Government. Former minor twitter celebrity/hate figure. https://www.leonardocarella.com/
Arguably, the last deliverable* manifesto from a major party was Theresa May's in 2017, and was monstered by the media for it.
*Ok, it still had the "tens of thousands" pledge on migration, but immigration promises have long been divorced from reality.
*Ok, it still had the "tens of thousands" pledge on migration, but immigration promises have long been divorced from reality.
The fact that in both 2019 and 2024, the winning party did so with a set of manifesto promises that could not be kept and dissolved upon contact with actual office is something that as an industry we should be much more bothered by than we are.
November 23, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Arguably, the last deliverable* manifesto from a major party was Theresa May's in 2017, and was monstered by the media for it.
*Ok, it still had the "tens of thousands" pledge on migration, but immigration promises have long been divorced from reality.
*Ok, it still had the "tens of thousands" pledge on migration, but immigration promises have long been divorced from reality.
POV: you're teaching political science but the internet has turned your brain to mush.
November 23, 2025 at 8:50 AM
POV: you're teaching political science but the internet has turned your brain to mush.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Do policy preferences of voters and non-voters differ in European democracies?
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Do policy preferences of voters and non-voters differ in European democracies?
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
(1/10) 🚨Preprint alert!🚨
In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.
doi.org/10.31234/osf...
In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.
doi.org/10.31234/osf...
OSF
doi.org
November 16, 2025 at 2:24 PM
(1/10) 🚨Preprint alert!🚨
In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.
doi.org/10.31234/osf...
In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.
doi.org/10.31234/osf...
I'm sorry to burst the bubble but the idea that Republican elites and/or base are a couple of pieces of evidence from the Epstein files away from the tipping point is a fantasy. We've been through this for 10 years now. It's not going to happen. It's not who they are.
November 15, 2025 at 10:59 AM
I'm sorry to burst the bubble but the idea that Republican elites and/or base are a couple of pieces of evidence from the Epstein files away from the tipping point is a fantasy. We've been through this for 10 years now. It's not going to happen. It's not who they are.
It’s very revealing how the techno-futurist crowd assumes that the rest of us also treat other people as props and gadgets in our lives, as opposed to valuing the fact that there’s a thinking, feeling person there.
November 15, 2025 at 3:43 AM
It’s very revealing how the techno-futurist crowd assumes that the rest of us also treat other people as props and gadgets in our lives, as opposed to valuing the fact that there’s a thinking, feeling person there.
A modern tragedy.
November 12, 2025 at 10:39 PM
A modern tragedy.
Hate crimed by the homework.
November 11, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Hate crimed by the homework.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
I fear we are seeing in the UK what has become abundantly clear in the US: for all their power and privilege, elites and institutions are absolute cowards in the face of right-wing authoritarianism. Weak, weak, weak, as Tony Blair once said
November 10, 2025 at 5:28 PM
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
ugh in two weeks I will have to teach NHST I feel so dirty
November 7, 2025 at 6:44 PM
ugh in two weeks I will have to teach NHST I feel so dirty
(This was obvious to anyone with a pair of eyes $50bn ago. Autocracies - no matter how much oil they can drill, how many foreign advisors they can hire, and how slick their PR - remain highly inefficient at allocating resources in the long run.)
NEW: The End of the Line: the centrepiece of Saudi Arabia’s Neom gigaproject - a 500m tall, 170km long wall-like building intended ultimately to house 9 million people - can’t get out of the ground, say more than 20 former Neom architects, engineers and senior executives.
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
End of The Line: how Saudi Arabia’s Neom dream unravelled
Mohammed bin Salman’s utopian city was undone by the laws of physics and finance
ig.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:19 AM
(This was obvious to anyone with a pair of eyes $50bn ago. Autocracies - no matter how much oil they can drill, how many foreign advisors they can hire, and how slick their PR - remain highly inefficient at allocating resources in the long run.)
German doesn’t care about ¬(p ∧ ¬p)
November 5, 2025 at 8:14 PM
German doesn’t care about ¬(p ∧ ¬p)
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
It’s fascinating comparing the front page coverage of the Huntingdon train attack (below) with how the British press treated another case 30 years ago.
I’m referring to the 1995 Netto supermarket attack in Birmingham in which a man stabbed 10 people, killing one of them.
I’m referring to the 1995 Netto supermarket attack in Birmingham in which a man stabbed 10 people, killing one of them.
November 3, 2025 at 9:50 AM
It’s fascinating comparing the front page coverage of the Huntingdon train attack (below) with how the British press treated another case 30 years ago.
I’m referring to the 1995 Netto supermarket attack in Birmingham in which a man stabbed 10 people, killing one of them.
I’m referring to the 1995 Netto supermarket attack in Birmingham in which a man stabbed 10 people, killing one of them.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Anyway, we need some joy, so here's the Egyptian foreign minister being given a Lego Pyramid by the Danish foreign minister.
November 3, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Anyway, we need some joy, so here's the Egyptian foreign minister being given a Lego Pyramid by the Danish foreign minister.
Interesting how often “going on about migration, free speech and Islam” correlates with “moving to Dubai”.
November 3, 2025 at 6:52 AM
Interesting how often “going on about migration, free speech and Islam” correlates with “moving to Dubai”.
Things universities can make national news for:
- people on the internet are a bit upset about the speaker selection of an obscure student group,
- a member of faculty copy-pasted a sentence of boilerplate methods language in her PhD thesis 30 years ago.
Things no one cares about:
- Bombs.
- people on the internet are a bit upset about the speaker selection of an obscure student group,
- a member of faculty copy-pasted a sentence of boilerplate methods language in her PhD thesis 30 years ago.
Things no one cares about:
- Bombs.
November 2, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Things universities can make national news for:
- people on the internet are a bit upset about the speaker selection of an obscure student group,
- a member of faculty copy-pasted a sentence of boilerplate methods language in her PhD thesis 30 years ago.
Things no one cares about:
- Bombs.
- people on the internet are a bit upset about the speaker selection of an obscure student group,
- a member of faculty copy-pasted a sentence of boilerplate methods language in her PhD thesis 30 years ago.
Things no one cares about:
- Bombs.
Mandatory centrist dad post
November 2, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Mandatory centrist dad post
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
I appreciate how purely Conor Lamb hates Fetterman
October 28, 2025 at 4:04 AM
I appreciate how purely Conor Lamb hates Fetterman
(The logic of most anti-tourism or anti-gentrification arguments is virtually indistinguishable from that of anti-immigration politics.)
October 26, 2025 at 7:55 AM
(The logic of most anti-tourism or anti-gentrification arguments is virtually indistinguishable from that of anti-immigration politics.)
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
X is not only completely out of control, it is also increasingly dangerous.
A very worrying escalation of online harassment.
Somebody has used a video of me saying "racism in football is a game of two halves" + put a fake voiceover on it saying "what I would say to the girls of Rotherham is it is a game of two halves"
x.com/EuropaIneffa...
Somebody has used a video of me saying "racism in football is a game of two halves" + put a fake voiceover on it saying "what I would say to the girls of Rotherham is it is a game of two halves"
x.com/EuropaIneffa...
Europa Ineffable on X: "In a recent panel at what looks like Labour conference, Sunder Katwala, wearing an England shirt, appeared to compare the R🦍 GANGS to a football match: "it's a game of two halves" 🥴 https://t.co/b5YNKyaQtu" / X
In a recent panel at what looks like Labour conference, Sunder Katwala, wearing an England shirt, appeared to compare the R🦍 GANGS to a football match
x.com
October 24, 2025 at 5:31 PM
X is not only completely out of control, it is also increasingly dangerous.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Multiverse studies seem doomed to perpetuate a cycle of "look it varies!" "but not that much" "does too!".
Here's another exchange that I had missed.
"Robustness is better assessed with a few thoughtful models than with billions of regressions"
doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
Here's another exchange that I had missed.
"Robustness is better assessed with a few thoughtful models than with billions of regressions"
doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
October 21, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Multiverse studies seem doomed to perpetuate a cycle of "look it varies!" "but not that much" "does too!".
Here's another exchange that I had missed.
"Robustness is better assessed with a few thoughtful models than with billions of regressions"
doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
Here's another exchange that I had missed.
"Robustness is better assessed with a few thoughtful models than with billions of regressions"
doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
Happy 100th birthday *checks notes* Margaret Thatcher
October 17, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Happy 100th birthday *checks notes* Margaret Thatcher
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
Migrant Electoral Rights Dataset (1960-2020)
📊 Link to dataset: hdl.handle.net/1814/93661
📕 Link to codebook: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...
💼 Link to 400 page documentation: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...
📊 Link to dataset: hdl.handle.net/1814/93661
📕 Link to codebook: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...
💼 Link to 400 page documentation: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...
MER Migrant Electoral Rights dataset
Suffrage is a central element of democracy. Over time, electoral rights have increasingly become available to migrants—both as non-citizen residents and as non-resident citizens. However, existing dat...
hdl.handle.net
October 15, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Migrant Electoral Rights Dataset (1960-2020)
📊 Link to dataset: hdl.handle.net/1814/93661
📕 Link to codebook: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...
💼 Link to 400 page documentation: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...
📊 Link to dataset: hdl.handle.net/1814/93661
📕 Link to codebook: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...
💼 Link to 400 page documentation: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...
Rock ‘n’ roll is not what it used to be.
October 7, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Rock ‘n’ roll is not what it used to be.
Reposted by Leonardo Carella
