Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️
@leftiestats.bsky.social
www.statsforlefties.com
Stats and election analysis from a progressive, Marxist perspective. Run by Eleanora Folan (she/her). All opinions my own. Trans woman 🏳️⚧️
Stats and election analysis from a progressive, Marxist perspective. Run by Eleanora Folan (she/her). All opinions my own. Trans woman 🏳️⚧️
📊 Estimated seats on latest Lord Ashcroft poll:
➡️ REF – 289 (+284)
🟢 GRN – 77 (+73)
🟠 LD – 77 (+5)
🔵 CON – 76 (-45)
🟡 SNP – 45 (+36)
🔴 LAB – 41 (-370)
Based on @LordAPolls poll, 13-17 Nov (+/- vs GE24)
➡️ REF – 289 (+284)
🟢 GRN – 77 (+73)
🟠 LD – 77 (+5)
🔵 CON – 76 (-45)
🟡 SNP – 45 (+36)
🔴 LAB – 41 (-370)
Based on @LordAPolls poll, 13-17 Nov (+/- vs GE24)
November 24, 2025 at 10:16 AM
📊 Estimated seats on latest Lord Ashcroft poll:
➡️ REF – 289 (+284)
🟢 GRN – 77 (+73)
🟠 LD – 77 (+5)
🔵 CON – 76 (-45)
🟡 SNP – 45 (+36)
🔴 LAB – 41 (-370)
Based on @LordAPolls poll, 13-17 Nov (+/- vs GE24)
➡️ REF – 289 (+284)
🟢 GRN – 77 (+73)
🟠 LD – 77 (+5)
🔵 CON – 76 (-45)
🟡 SNP – 45 (+36)
🔴 LAB – 41 (-370)
Based on @LordAPolls poll, 13-17 Nov (+/- vs GE24)
🗳️ Projected seat totals:
➡️ REF: 318 seats (+313)
🟠 LD: 87 seats (+15)
🟢 GRN: 61 seats (+57)
🔴 LAB: 60 seats (-351)
🟡 SNP: 46 seats (+37)
🔵 CON: 32 seats (-89)
🟢 PLAID: 7 seats (+3)
Based on @YouGov poll, 16-17 Nov (+/- vs GE2024)
➡️ REF: 318 seats (+313)
🟠 LD: 87 seats (+15)
🟢 GRN: 61 seats (+57)
🔴 LAB: 60 seats (-351)
🟡 SNP: 46 seats (+37)
🔵 CON: 32 seats (-89)
🟢 PLAID: 7 seats (+3)
Based on @YouGov poll, 16-17 Nov (+/- vs GE2024)
November 18, 2025 at 10:12 AM
🗳️ Projected seat totals:
➡️ REF: 318 seats (+313)
🟠 LD: 87 seats (+15)
🟢 GRN: 61 seats (+57)
🔴 LAB: 60 seats (-351)
🟡 SNP: 46 seats (+37)
🔵 CON: 32 seats (-89)
🟢 PLAID: 7 seats (+3)
Based on @YouGov poll, 16-17 Nov (+/- vs GE2024)
➡️ REF: 318 seats (+313)
🟠 LD: 87 seats (+15)
🟢 GRN: 61 seats (+57)
🔴 LAB: 60 seats (-351)
🟡 SNP: 46 seats (+37)
🔵 CON: 32 seats (-89)
🟢 PLAID: 7 seats (+3)
Based on @YouGov poll, 16-17 Nov (+/- vs GE2024)
📊 Ipsos poll suggests Reform landslide:
➡️ REF – 400 seats (+395)
🟠 LD – 78 seats (+6)
🟡 SNP – 46 seats (+37)
🟢 GRN – 43 seats (+39)
🔴 LAB – 31 seats (-380)
🔵 CON – 11 seats (-110)
🟢 PLAID – 7 seats (+3)
Based on @IpsosUK poll, Nov 2025 (+/- vs GE24)
➡️ REF – 400 seats (+395)
🟠 LD – 78 seats (+6)
🟡 SNP – 46 seats (+37)
🟢 GRN – 43 seats (+39)
🔴 LAB – 31 seats (-380)
🔵 CON – 11 seats (-110)
🟢 PLAID – 7 seats (+3)
Based on @IpsosUK poll, Nov 2025 (+/- vs GE24)
November 16, 2025 at 11:06 AM
📊 Ipsos poll suggests Reform landslide:
➡️ REF – 400 seats (+395)
🟠 LD – 78 seats (+6)
🟡 SNP – 46 seats (+37)
🟢 GRN – 43 seats (+39)
🔴 LAB – 31 seats (-380)
🔵 CON – 11 seats (-110)
🟢 PLAID – 7 seats (+3)
Based on @IpsosUK poll, Nov 2025 (+/- vs GE24)
➡️ REF – 400 seats (+395)
🟠 LD – 78 seats (+6)
🟡 SNP – 46 seats (+37)
🟢 GRN – 43 seats (+39)
🔴 LAB – 31 seats (-380)
🔵 CON – 11 seats (-110)
🟢 PLAID – 7 seats (+3)
Based on @IpsosUK poll, Nov 2025 (+/- vs GE24)
"Since 2024, Labour has lost almost 50% of its voters – representing 17pts in total. These defecting voters have split as follows:
➡️ REF – 4.7pts
🟢 GRN – 4.6pts
Labour is losing as many votes to the Greens as they are to Reform".
www.statsforlefties.com/2025/11/07/poll-roundup-october
➡️ REF – 4.7pts
🟢 GRN – 4.6pts
Labour is losing as many votes to the Greens as they are to Reform".
www.statsforlefties.com/2025/11/07/poll-roundup-october
November 7, 2025 at 7:54 PM
"Since 2024, Labour has lost almost 50% of its voters – representing 17pts in total. These defecting voters have split as follows:
➡️ REF – 4.7pts
🟢 GRN – 4.6pts
Labour is losing as many votes to the Greens as they are to Reform".
www.statsforlefties.com/2025/11/07/poll-roundup-october
➡️ REF – 4.7pts
🟢 GRN – 4.6pts
Labour is losing as many votes to the Greens as they are to Reform".
www.statsforlefties.com/2025/11/07/poll-roundup-october
Projected seat totals:
➡️ REF – 357 seats (+352)
🟠 LD – 82 seats (+10)
🔴 LAB – 64 seats (-347)
🟡 SNP – 44 seats (+35)
🔵 CON – 41 seats (-80)
🟢 GRN – 20 seats (+16)
⚪️ IND – 16 seats (+11)
Based on @Moreincommon_ poll, 31 Oct-3 Nov
➡️ REF – 357 seats (+352)
🟠 LD – 82 seats (+10)
🔴 LAB – 64 seats (-347)
🟡 SNP – 44 seats (+35)
🔵 CON – 41 seats (-80)
🟢 GRN – 20 seats (+16)
⚪️ IND – 16 seats (+11)
Based on @Moreincommon_ poll, 31 Oct-3 Nov
November 5, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Projected seat totals:
➡️ REF – 357 seats (+352)
🟠 LD – 82 seats (+10)
🔴 LAB – 64 seats (-347)
🟡 SNP – 44 seats (+35)
🔵 CON – 41 seats (-80)
🟢 GRN – 20 seats (+16)
⚪️ IND – 16 seats (+11)
Based on @Moreincommon_ poll, 31 Oct-3 Nov
➡️ REF – 357 seats (+352)
🟠 LD – 82 seats (+10)
🔴 LAB – 64 seats (-347)
🟡 SNP – 44 seats (+35)
🔵 CON – 41 seats (-80)
🟢 GRN – 20 seats (+16)
⚪️ IND – 16 seats (+11)
Based on @Moreincommon_ poll, 31 Oct-3 Nov
Info on my seat model: statsforlefties.com/seatmodel
How my seat projection model works
Download the model here: Brand New SfL Model 1.0Download Under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, the popular vote does not precisely translate into seats in Parliament. As a result, …
statsforlefties.wordpress.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Info on my seat model: statsforlefties.com/seatmodel