Lawrence Freedman
@ldfreedman.bsky.social
Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine. Substack Comment is Freed https://samf.substack.com/
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Do read this piece from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on the questions that Ukraine could ask, in response to the latest peace plan.
Oh, and sign up to the substack from @samfr.bsky.social.
Oh, and sign up to the substack from @samfr.bsky.social.
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
On how Ukraine should respond to the US "peace plan" and looking at some new details that emerged over the last 24 hours.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/how-should...
On how Ukraine should respond to the US "peace plan" and looking at some new details that emerged over the last 24 hours.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/how-should...
How should Ukraine respond?
And more details on the "peace plan"
samf.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Do read this piece from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on the questions that Ukraine could ask, in response to the latest peace plan.
Oh, and sign up to the substack from @samfr.bsky.social.
Oh, and sign up to the substack from @samfr.bsky.social.
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Another post on the new peace plan assessing how Ukraine should respond - don’t rush, don’t agree to a package and then wait for more Russians demands, keep up pressure, ask questions, cherry pick. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?
How should Ukraine respond?
And more details on the "peace plan"
open.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Another post on the new peace plan assessing how Ukraine should respond - don’t rush, don’t agree to a package and then wait for more Russians demands, keep up pressure, ask questions, cherry pick. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?
Another post on the new peace plan assessing how Ukraine should respond - don’t rush, don’t agree to a package and then wait for more Russians demands, keep up pressure, ask questions, cherry pick. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?
How should Ukraine respond?
And more details on the "peace plan"
open.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Another post on the new peace plan assessing how Ukraine should respond - don’t rush, don’t agree to a package and then wait for more Russians demands, keep up pressure, ask questions, cherry pick. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Here is my read of the "peace plan" and how Kirill Dmitriev played the American media to force this thing into being -- with an incompetent White House scrambling to make it seem like this was somehow coordinated and well-planned. open.substack.com/pub/macspaun...
“He Must Have Got This From K.”
How a Russian operative used the American media to force a risible “peace deal” into existence
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Here is my read of the "peace plan" and how Kirill Dmitriev played the American media to force this thing into being -- with an incompetent White House scrambling to make it seem like this was somehow coordinated and well-planned. open.substack.com/pub/macspaun...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
My irritation, all in one place!
November 21, 2025 at 5:23 PM
My irritation, all in one place!
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Update and very useful commentary on the so called Peace Plan from Lawrence Freedman
The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated
We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Update and very useful commentary on the so called Peace Plan from Lawrence Freedman
The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated
We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:36 AM
The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
@ldfreedman.bsky.social demolishes the rumors of a peace plan.
This makes more sense than anything else I've seen on the plan.
Nonetheless, Witkoff's ignorance shines through. He probably got rolled again. 1/
This makes more sense than anything else I've seen on the plan.
Nonetheless, Witkoff's ignorance shines through. He probably got rolled again. 1/
Yet another peace plan?
What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal
open.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:49 PM
@ldfreedman.bsky.social demolishes the rumors of a peace plan.
This makes more sense than anything else I've seen on the plan.
Nonetheless, Witkoff's ignorance shines through. He probably got rolled again. 1/
This makes more sense than anything else I've seen on the plan.
Nonetheless, Witkoff's ignorance shines through. He probably got rolled again. 1/
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Far too much credibility is being given to the new ‘Trump peace plan’ that would be tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Here I explain why this new plan is far less than it seems and is unlikely to lead to anything. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/y...?
Yet another peace plan?
What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal
open.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Far too much credibility is being given to the new ‘Trump peace plan’ that would be tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Here I explain why this new plan is far less than it seems and is unlikely to lead to anything. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/y...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Great piece
Far too much credibility is being given to the new ‘Trump peace plan’ that would be tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Here I explain why this new plan is far less than it seems and is unlikely to lead to anything. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/y...?
Yet another peace plan?
What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal
open.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Great piece
Far too much credibility is being given to the new ‘Trump peace plan’ that would be tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Here I explain why this new plan is far less than it seems and is unlikely to lead to anything. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/y...?
Yet another peace plan?
What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal
open.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Far too much credibility is being given to the new ‘Trump peace plan’ that would be tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Here I explain why this new plan is far less than it seems and is unlikely to lead to anything. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/y...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
One thought-provoking observation among many: "...there is a bias in these debates in which hard questions are asked of Kyiv but not Moscow. Why exactly are Russians dying in large numbers to take over a ruined city? Will it really bring the war closer to a conclusion if this operation succeeds?"
Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk and the pressure on Kyiv to order a withdrawal. I look at the factors influencing a decision, including the temptation to deny Putin a victory he has already claimed (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...?
Retreat, Defeat and the Sunk Cost Fallacy
Ukraine’s choices on Pokrovsk
open.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:48 PM
One thought-provoking observation among many: "...there is a bias in these debates in which hard questions are asked of Kyiv but not Moscow. Why exactly are Russians dying in large numbers to take over a ruined city? Will it really bring the war closer to a conclusion if this operation succeeds?"
I’d be very surprised if this leads to anything at all. Latest effort by Witkoff to bounce administration to bounce Ukraine into a deal they won’t accept.
Seems to be what TASS is saying too...
As if the Kremlin has been taken by surprise by Witkoff's "deal."
Very odd. /1
As if the Kremlin has been taken by surprise by Witkoff's "deal."
Very odd. /1
November 19, 2025 at 8:08 PM
I’d be very surprised if this leads to anything at all. Latest effort by Witkoff to bounce administration to bounce Ukraine into a deal they won’t accept.
Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk and the pressure on Kyiv to order a withdrawal. I look at the factors influencing a decision, including the temptation to deny Putin a victory he has already claimed (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...?
Retreat, Defeat and the Sunk Cost Fallacy
Ukraine’s choices on Pokrovsk
open.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk and the pressure on Kyiv to order a withdrawal. I look at the factors influencing a decision, including the temptation to deny Putin a victory he has already claimed (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
"The Reality Trap"
On Reform's struggles running councils.
What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The Reality Trap"
On Reform's struggles running councils.
What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
The Reality Trap
Reform's struggles in local government
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 9:06 AM
New post just out:
"The Reality Trap"
On Reform's struggles running councils.
What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The Reality Trap"
On Reform's struggles running councils.
What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
Continuing his exploration into what Reform might be do as a national government, Sam looks into the difficulties already faced in local government. He also points out the challenge any party faces when options are so constrained. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/the-realit...
The Reality Trap
Reform's struggles in local government
samf.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Continuing his exploration into what Reform might be do as a national government, Sam looks into the difficulties already faced in local government. He also points out the challenge any party faces when options are so constrained. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/the-realit...
Prospects for ending war in Ukraine, future of Russia, role of China, use of small-yield nuclear weapons, future of defence industry - answering questions put by subscribers (£/free trial). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?
Will Russians continue to support the war? Will 2026 be a crunch year? Possibility of Ukrainian counter-attack?
More answers to your questions.
open.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Prospects for ending war in Ukraine, future of Russia, role of China, use of small-yield nuclear weapons, future of defence industry - answering questions put by subscribers (£/free trial). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?
Answering lots of your questions.
Here's what I cover
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?
Answering lots of your questions.
Here's what I cover
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
November 11, 2025 at 8:39 AM
New post just out:
Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?
Answering lots of your questions.
Here's what I cover
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?
Answering lots of your questions.
Here's what I cover
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Great summary from Sam of just how dire a state the criminal justice system is in — and the massive political and human risks that creates. We go through all the facts and figures in our Public Services Performance Tracker:
November 8, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Great summary from Sam of just how dire a state the criminal justice system is in — and the massive political and human risks that creates. We go through all the facts and figures in our Public Services Performance Tracker:
Sam illuminates the dire state of the criminal justice system and why it has to be a priority for reform. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/flashing-red?
Flashing Red
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list"
samf.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Sam illuminates the dire state of the criminal justice system and why it has to be a priority for reform. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/flashing-red?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".
No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.
It desperately needs a new approach.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".
No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.
It desperately needs a new approach.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...
Flashing Red
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list"
open.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 8:56 AM
New post just out:
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".
No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.
It desperately needs a new approach.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".
No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.
It desperately needs a new approach.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
www.xn--mustafaeker-xgc.com.tr
November 7, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Just sent out our regular "ask us anything" post so subscribers can submit questions.
Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...
Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...
Ask us anything
Every few months we offer paying subscribers the chance to ask us questions on any topic you like.
open.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Just sent out our regular "ask us anything" post so subscribers can submit questions.
Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...
Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...