Lucian Cernat
@lcernat.bsky.social
Head of Unit for Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, #TBTs, Customs, #RoOs. Maker of #tradeXpresso. #Mode5. #GVCs4LDCs. Ex DG TRADE ChiefTradeEconomist. Opinions personal.
#tradeXpresso: in Trade Policy 2.0 tariffs were a dull topic. Now, in Trade Policy 3.0, when it comes to tariffs, there's never a dull moment.
Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.
From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.
From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
November 26, 2025 at 4:27 PM
#tradeXpresso: in Trade Policy 2.0 tariffs were a dull topic. Now, in Trade Policy 3.0, when it comes to tariffs, there's never a dull moment.
Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.
From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.
From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
Tulip 🌷 bubble: the 17th century Dutch bitcoin. One bulb was worth a house in 1636.
November 22, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Tulip 🌷 bubble: the 17th century Dutch bitcoin. One bulb was worth a house in 1636.
#tradeXpresso: chart of the week- the importance of services trade in the spotlight today in Brussels, thanks to the EU Services Forum!
A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:
ecipe.org/blog/the-big...
Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:
ecipe.org/blog/the-big...
Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
November 21, 2025 at 11:08 AM
#tradeXpresso: chart of the week- the importance of services trade in the spotlight today in Brussels, thanks to the EU Services Forum!
A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:
ecipe.org/blog/the-big...
Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:
ecipe.org/blog/the-big...
Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart.
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
October 29, 2025 at 10:33 PM
#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart.
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
Chart of the week: the pin art 🖼️ of the trade deal revealed! ecipe.org/publications...
I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
September 28, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Chart of the week: the pin art 🖼️ of the trade deal revealed! ecipe.org/publications...
I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
#tradeXpresso: tariffs are simple till they aren’t. Have a look at the U.S. tariff landscape:
ecipe.org/publications...
ecipe.org/publications...
September 18, 2025 at 8:57 AM
#tradeXpresso: tariffs are simple till they aren’t. Have a look at the U.S. tariff landscape:
ecipe.org/publications...
ecipe.org/publications...
I am truly impressed by how much people read during holidays.
Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
August 18, 2025 at 2:39 PM
I am truly impressed by how much people read during holidays.
Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
#tradeXpresso: perfect timing for a new “mini-deal” that will facilitate trade between the European 🇪🇺 Union and Canada 🇨🇦.
lnkd.in/eCUty6VB
Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
lnkd.in/eCUty6VB
Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
August 8, 2025 at 12:45 PM
#tradeXpresso: perfect timing for a new “mini-deal” that will facilitate trade between the European 🇪🇺 Union and Canada 🇨🇦.
lnkd.in/eCUty6VB
Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
lnkd.in/eCUty6VB
Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
#tradeXpresso: I guess establishing the new US tariff rate applicable to some products (and their origin) might drive a few people 🛃 nuts 🌰 🥜 !
August 3, 2025 at 12:05 PM
#tradeXpresso: I guess establishing the new US tariff rate applicable to some products (and their origin) might drive a few people 🛃 nuts 🌰 🥜 !
#tradeXpresso: big crowd at the Global Digital Collaboration #GDC25 event in Geneva!
Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains
It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains
It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
July 1, 2025 at 10:55 AM
#tradeXpresso: big crowd at the Global Digital Collaboration #GDC25 event in Geneva!
Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains
It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains
It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
#tradeXpresso: EU experts are working hard with WTO partners to remove key #TBT barriers that significantly affect over € 40bn of EU exports. As in the past, successful multilateral cooperation continues behind the trade war headlines!
www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
June 26, 2025 at 1:23 PM
#tradeXpresso: EU experts are working hard with WTO partners to remove key #TBT barriers that significantly affect over € 40bn of EU exports. As in the past, successful multilateral cooperation continues behind the trade war headlines!
www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
#tradeXpresso: three insights from a “trade and jobs” chart.
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!
ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!
ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
June 13, 2025 at 2:31 PM
#tradeXpresso: three insights from a “trade and jobs” chart.
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!
ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!
ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
Chart du jour: when it comes to US tariffs, nobody really knows anything (for sure).
But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day.
Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day.
Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
May 29, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Chart du jour: when it comes to US tariffs, nobody really knows anything (for sure).
But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day.
Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day.
Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
#tradeXpresso: chart du jour - currently applied #tariffs by the United States 🇺🇸.
Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
May 25, 2025 at 4:59 PM
#tradeXpresso: chart du jour - currently applied #tariffs by the United States 🇺🇸.
Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
April 19, 2025 at 9:40 AM
#tradeXpresso: in turbulent times every trade agreement counts for EU companies and #procurement offers big opportunities!
Today we have added to our #Access2Procurement tool Albania 🇦🇱 BiH 🇧🇦 Serbia 🇷🇸 Kosovo 🇽🇰 North Macedonia 🇲🇰 Norway 🇳🇴 Iceland 🇮🇸 Liechtenstein 🇱🇮
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
Today we have added to our #Access2Procurement tool Albania 🇦🇱 BiH 🇧🇦 Serbia 🇷🇸 Kosovo 🇽🇰 North Macedonia 🇲🇰 Norway 🇳🇴 Iceland 🇮🇸 Liechtenstein 🇱🇮
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
April 9, 2025 at 3:12 PM
#tradeXpresso: in turbulent times every trade agreement counts for EU companies and #procurement offers big opportunities!
Today we have added to our #Access2Procurement tool Albania 🇦🇱 BiH 🇧🇦 Serbia 🇷🇸 Kosovo 🇽🇰 North Macedonia 🇲🇰 Norway 🇳🇴 Iceland 🇮🇸 Liechtenstein 🇱🇮
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
Today we have added to our #Access2Procurement tool Albania 🇦🇱 BiH 🇧🇦 Serbia 🇷🇸 Kosovo 🇽🇰 North Macedonia 🇲🇰 Norway 🇳🇴 Iceland 🇮🇸 Liechtenstein 🇱🇮
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
#tradeXpresso: On my way to an interesting event today, to discuss our future trade priorities with key EU industries.
The stakes are really high for both manufacturing and services sectors!
I don’t have a crystal ball so I will rely on this: ecipe.org/publications...
The stakes are really high for both manufacturing and services sectors!
I don’t have a crystal ball so I will rely on this: ecipe.org/publications...
March 31, 2025 at 11:45 AM
#tradeXpresso: On my way to an interesting event today, to discuss our future trade priorities with key EU industries.
The stakes are really high for both manufacturing and services sectors!
I don’t have a crystal ball so I will rely on this: ecipe.org/publications...
The stakes are really high for both manufacturing and services sectors!
I don’t have a crystal ball so I will rely on this: ecipe.org/publications...
#tradeXpresso: chart du jour. The top world importer of goods and services is…
March 29, 2025 at 6:44 PM
#tradeXpresso: chart du jour. The top world importer of goods and services is…
#tradeXpresso: Exciting news for over 240'000 EU exporters to Switzerland🇨🇭, our 4th largest trading partner!
🥁📢 Our user-friendly #Access2Procurement tool now offers quick answers about opportunities to win public contracts in Switzerland!
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
🥁📢 Our user-friendly #Access2Procurement tool now offers quick answers about opportunities to win public contracts in Switzerland!
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
March 28, 2025 at 5:12 PM
#tradeXpresso: Exciting news for over 240'000 EU exporters to Switzerland🇨🇭, our 4th largest trading partner!
🥁📢 Our user-friendly #Access2Procurement tool now offers quick answers about opportunities to win public contracts in Switzerland!
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
🥁📢 Our user-friendly #Access2Procurement tool now offers quick answers about opportunities to win public contracts in Switzerland!
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
#tradeXpresso: many things matter more than tariffs in EU trade policy and EU FTAs continue to make a positive difference to EU companies.
Fact 👉 the value of Japanese public procurement contracts won by EU bidders:
¥4️⃣3️⃣’8️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣
#Access2Procurement
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
Fact 👉 the value of Japanese public procurement contracts won by EU bidders:
¥4️⃣3️⃣’8️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣
#Access2Procurement
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
March 13, 2025 at 11:01 AM
#tradeXpresso: many things matter more than tariffs in EU trade policy and EU FTAs continue to make a positive difference to EU companies.
Fact 👉 the value of Japanese public procurement contracts won by EU bidders:
¥4️⃣3️⃣’8️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣
#Access2Procurement
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
Fact 👉 the value of Japanese public procurement contracts won by EU bidders:
¥4️⃣3️⃣’8️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣
#Access2Procurement
webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
Anyone feels the same?
February 28, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Anyone feels the same?
#tradeXpresso: foreign bidders in EU procurement, in one chart.
Key messages:
• many foreign bidders win (full/partial) public contracts in Europe.
• but foreign participation is very skewed:
1. proximity matters
2. trade agreements matter
More: ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
Key messages:
• many foreign bidders win (full/partial) public contracts in Europe.
• but foreign participation is very skewed:
1. proximity matters
2. trade agreements matter
More: ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
February 28, 2025 at 4:21 AM
#tradeXpresso: foreign bidders in EU procurement, in one chart.
Key messages:
• many foreign bidders win (full/partial) public contracts in Europe.
• but foreign participation is very skewed:
1. proximity matters
2. trade agreements matter
More: ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
Key messages:
• many foreign bidders win (full/partial) public contracts in Europe.
• but foreign participation is very skewed:
1. proximity matters
2. trade agreements matter
More: ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
#tradeXpresso quiz: the participation of foreign bidders in EU public procurement is….
A. too little
B. too much
C. hard to tell without more data
Some hints 👉: ecipe.org/publications...
A. too little
B. too much
C. hard to tell without more data
Some hints 👉: ecipe.org/publications...
February 20, 2025 at 4:34 PM
#tradeXpresso quiz: the participation of foreign bidders in EU public procurement is….
A. too little
B. too much
C. hard to tell without more data
Some hints 👉: ecipe.org/publications...
A. too little
B. too much
C. hard to tell without more data
Some hints 👉: ecipe.org/publications...