Lucian Cernat
@lcernat.bsky.social
Head of Unit for Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, #TBTs, Customs, #RoOs. Maker of #tradeXpresso. #Mode5. #GVCs4LDCs. Ex DG TRADE ChiefTradeEconomist. Opinions personal.
#tradeXpresso: in Trade Policy 2.0 tariffs were a dull topic. Now, in Trade Policy 3.0, when it comes to tariffs, there's never a dull moment.
Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.
From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.
From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
November 26, 2025 at 4:27 PM
#tradeXpresso: in Trade Policy 2.0 tariffs were a dull topic. Now, in Trade Policy 3.0, when it comes to tariffs, there's never a dull moment.
Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.
From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0.
From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
#tradeXpresso: after reading Martin Wolf’s latest FT article (www.ft.com/content/b515...) I am now intellectually reassured that #TradePolicy3.0 is actually a thing.
ecipe.org/publications...
Interested in your views!
ecipe.org/publications...
Interested in your views!
Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland
Global trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and later by firm-level insights and global value chain
ecipe.org
November 26, 2025 at 1:06 PM
#tradeXpresso: after reading Martin Wolf’s latest FT article (www.ft.com/content/b515...) I am now intellectually reassured that #TradePolicy3.0 is actually a thing.
ecipe.org/publications...
Interested in your views!
ecipe.org/publications...
Interested in your views!
Tulip 🌷 bubble: the 17th century Dutch bitcoin. One bulb was worth a house in 1636.
November 22, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Tulip 🌷 bubble: the 17th century Dutch bitcoin. One bulb was worth a house in 1636.
#tradeXpresso: chart of the week- the importance of services trade in the spotlight today in Brussels, thanks to the EU Services Forum!
A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:
ecipe.org/blog/the-big...
Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:
ecipe.org/blog/the-big...
Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
November 21, 2025 at 11:08 AM
#tradeXpresso: chart of the week- the importance of services trade in the spotlight today in Brussels, thanks to the EU Services Forum!
A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:
ecipe.org/blog/the-big...
Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
A tale of five countries and five modes of supply:
ecipe.org/blog/the-big...
Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
#tradeXpresso: Global trade policy is at a crossroads. A new paradigm –Trade Policy 3.0– is emerging, based on resilience, economic security, geopolitical rivalries and weaponised dependencies.
New ECIPE brief🧾: How will trade policy evolve in Tomorrowland?
ecipe.org/publications...
New ECIPE brief🧾: How will trade policy evolve in Tomorrowland?
ecipe.org/publications...
Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland
Global trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and later by firm-level insights and global value chain
ecipe.org
November 6, 2025 at 1:38 PM
#tradeXpresso: Global trade policy is at a crossroads. A new paradigm –Trade Policy 3.0– is emerging, based on resilience, economic security, geopolitical rivalries and weaponised dependencies.
New ECIPE brief🧾: How will trade policy evolve in Tomorrowland?
ecipe.org/publications...
New ECIPE brief🧾: How will trade policy evolve in Tomorrowland?
ecipe.org/publications...
Reposted by Lucian Cernat
#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart.
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
October 29, 2025 at 10:33 PM
#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart.
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart.
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
October 29, 2025 at 10:33 PM
#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart.
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”!
ecipe.org/publications...
Chart of the week: the pin art 🖼️ of the trade deal revealed! ecipe.org/publications...
I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
September 28, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Chart of the week: the pin art 🖼️ of the trade deal revealed! ecipe.org/publications...
I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
#tradeXpresso: tariffs are simple till they aren’t. Have a look at the U.S. tariff landscape:
ecipe.org/publications...
ecipe.org/publications...
September 18, 2025 at 8:57 AM
#tradeXpresso: tariffs are simple till they aren’t. Have a look at the U.S. tariff landscape:
ecipe.org/publications...
ecipe.org/publications...
I am truly impressed by how much people read during holidays.
Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
August 18, 2025 at 2:39 PM
I am truly impressed by how much people read during holidays.
Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
#tradeXpresso: perfect timing for a new “mini-deal” that will facilitate trade between the European 🇪🇺 Union and Canada 🇨🇦.
lnkd.in/eCUty6VB
Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
lnkd.in/eCUty6VB
Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
August 8, 2025 at 12:45 PM
#tradeXpresso: perfect timing for a new “mini-deal” that will facilitate trade between the European 🇪🇺 Union and Canada 🇨🇦.
lnkd.in/eCUty6VB
Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
lnkd.in/eCUty6VB
Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
#tradeXpresso: I guess establishing the new US tariff rate applicable to some products (and their origin) might drive a few people 🛃 nuts 🌰 🥜 !
August 3, 2025 at 12:05 PM
#tradeXpresso: I guess establishing the new US tariff rate applicable to some products (and their origin) might drive a few people 🛃 nuts 🌰 🥜 !
Well, I am in charge of the trade in goods 📦. So, yeah, I guess I am in charge of #Mode5Services as well! kluwerlawonline.com/journalartic...
July 18, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Well, I am in charge of the trade in goods 📦. So, yeah, I guess I am in charge of #Mode5Services as well! kluwerlawonline.com/journalartic...
#tradeXpresso: It's time for a new role at DG Trade. Starting a new position as Head of Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, #TBT, Customs and #RoOs!
Wishing the best to my former #PublicProcurement dream team, with whom I shared a number of successes over the years: (1/x)
Wishing the best to my former #PublicProcurement dream team, with whom I shared a number of successes over the years: (1/x)
July 17, 2025 at 8:46 PM
#tradeXpresso: It's time for a new role at DG Trade. Starting a new position as Head of Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, #TBT, Customs and #RoOs!
Wishing the best to my former #PublicProcurement dream team, with whom I shared a number of successes over the years: (1/x)
Wishing the best to my former #PublicProcurement dream team, with whom I shared a number of successes over the years: (1/x)
#tradeXpresso: big crowd at the Global Digital Collaboration #GDC25 event in Geneva!
Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains
It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains
It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
July 1, 2025 at 10:55 AM
#tradeXpresso: big crowd at the Global Digital Collaboration #GDC25 event in Geneva!
Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains
It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
Key trade topics today:
🔹cross-border interoperability
🔹traceability across global supply chains
It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
#tradeXpresso: EU experts are working hard with WTO partners to remove key #TBT barriers that significantly affect over € 40bn of EU exports. As in the past, successful multilateral cooperation continues behind the trade war headlines!
www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
June 26, 2025 at 1:23 PM
#tradeXpresso: EU experts are working hard with WTO partners to remove key #TBT barriers that significantly affect over € 40bn of EU exports. As in the past, successful multilateral cooperation continues behind the trade war headlines!
www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
#tradeXpresso: the European Commission adopted the first measures under the International Procurement Instrument #IPI.
The measures will be legally applicable in 10 days from the date of publication.
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
The measures will be legally applicable in 10 days from the date of publication.
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
Commission restricts Chinese participation in medical devices procurement
The European Commission decided to exclude Chinese companies from EU government purchases of medical devices exceeding €5 million. This measure follows the conclusions of the first investigation under...
ec.europa.eu
June 20, 2025 at 7:21 AM
#tradeXpresso: the European Commission adopted the first measures under the International Procurement Instrument #IPI.
The measures will be legally applicable in 10 days from the date of publication.
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
The measures will be legally applicable in 10 days from the date of publication.
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
#tradeXpresso: three insights from a “trade and jobs” chart.
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!
ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!
ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
June 13, 2025 at 2:31 PM
#tradeXpresso: three insights from a “trade and jobs” chart.
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!
ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system.
♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade.
♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts!
ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Lucian Cernat
Great work by @lcernat.bsky.social showing how Trump's tariffs would be affected by the US Trade Court decision
May 29, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Great work by @lcernat.bsky.social showing how Trump's tariffs would be affected by the US Trade Court decision
Chart du jour: when it comes to US tariffs, nobody really knows anything (for sure).
But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day.
Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day.
Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
May 29, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Chart du jour: when it comes to US tariffs, nobody really knows anything (for sure).
But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day.
Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day.
Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
#tradeXpresso: chart du jour - currently applied #tariffs by the United States 🇺🇸.
Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
May 25, 2025 at 4:59 PM
#tradeXpresso: chart du jour - currently applied #tariffs by the United States 🇺🇸.
Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
#tradeXpresso: if you hurry up, you still have time to register for the next CETA Regulatory Cooperation Forum with Canada 🇨🇦!
We have over 7️⃣0️⃣ 0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ EU firms (most of them SMEs) that export to Canada and we want to reach out to all of EU!
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/events/regul...
We have over 7️⃣0️⃣ 0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ EU firms (most of them SMEs) that export to Canada and we want to reach out to all of EU!
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/events/regul...
Regulatory Cooperation Forum: Stakeholders debrief meeting
The seventh annual meeting of the Regulatory Cooperation Forum (RCF) will take place in Brussels on Wednesday 14 May 2025. Established under the Canada-European Union (EU) Comprehensive Economic and T...
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu
April 30, 2025 at 2:28 PM
#tradeXpresso: if you hurry up, you still have time to register for the next CETA Regulatory Cooperation Forum with Canada 🇨🇦!
We have over 7️⃣0️⃣ 0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ EU firms (most of them SMEs) that export to Canada and we want to reach out to all of EU!
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/events/regul...
We have over 7️⃣0️⃣ 0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ EU firms (most of them SMEs) that export to Canada and we want to reach out to all of EU!
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/events/regul...