Lauri Myllyvirta
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
Co-founder and lead analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air; senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute: tracking & accelerating progress from polluting energy to clean air, with research and evidence.
The political economy is favorable because the central State Grid is flush with cash and they get direct control over transmission infra that straddles grid regions so they like those very long power lines.
November 17, 2025 at 11:13 AM
The political economy is favorable because the central State Grid is flush with cash and they get direct control over transmission infra that straddles grid regions so they like those very long power lines.
The State Grid loves building long-distance transmission lines; expect the next five-year plan to include another batch of clean energy bases and transmission channels from the north and west. Local discontent is managed through some smart planning, and then negotiation and suppression as always.
November 17, 2025 at 11:11 AM
The State Grid loves building long-distance transmission lines; expect the next five-year plan to include another batch of clean energy bases and transmission channels from the north and west. Local discontent is managed through some smart planning, and then negotiation and suppression as always.
Source for the industrial and power data: www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/2...
2025年10月份规模以上工业增加值增长4.9% - 国家统计局
www.stats.gov.cn
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
Source for the industrial and power data: www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/2...
In general, more AC means weather is causing much bigger swings in power demand. Last year, Sept saw a similar surge due to exceptional heat; this year, June-July was much hotter and Aug-Sept milder than last year, and power demand last Oct was very subdued, setting a low base.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
In general, more AC means weather is causing much bigger swings in power demand. Last year, Sept saw a similar surge due to exceptional heat; this year, June-July was much hotter and Aug-Sept milder than last year, and power demand last Oct was very subdued, setting a low base.
October was unusually hot in the south, and much colder than previous years in the north. The rapid increase in air conditioner ownership means that people are using them more for heating in northern China, especially before district heating is turned on in November.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
October was unusually hot in the south, and much colder than previous years in the north. The rapid increase in air conditioner ownership means that people are using them more for heating in northern China, especially before district heating is turned on in November.
It's already clear that there must also have been a sharp increase in power demand. Industrial production numbers do not point to any jump in demand, so the residential and service sectors are the likely reason.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
It's already clear that there must also have been a sharp increase in power demand. Industrial production numbers do not point to any jump in demand, so the residential and service sectors are the likely reason.
We'll be able to assess this better in the next couple of weeks when capacity utilization data and power demand data for October become available.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
We'll be able to assess this better in the next couple of weeks when capacity utilization data and power demand data for October become available.
The concern is that we're seeing a repeat of what happened at the end of last year when grid operators had contracted too much coal power under long-term contracts and decided to curtail solar and wind instead of facing the penalties from not fulfulling the coal contracts.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
The concern is that we're seeing a repeat of what happened at the end of last year when grid operators had contracted too much coal power under long-term contracts and decided to curtail solar and wind instead of facing the penalties from not fulfulling the coal contracts.
But the drop in wind power generation and weak increase in solar generation reported by the stats bureau indicates that capacity utilization fell sharply, more than can be accounted for by weather conditions (we model solar and wind generation based on daily weather data to track this).
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
But the drop in wind power generation and weak increase in solar generation reported by the stats bureau indicates that capacity utilization fell sharply, more than can be accounted for by weather conditions (we model solar and wind generation based on daily weather data to track this).
China's statistics bureau reports that wind power generation from the plants included in their sample fell by 12%. This does not mean wind power generation actually fell, as newly added capacity during the year is excluded from their data and capacity is up 20% year-on-year.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
China's statistics bureau reports that wind power generation from the plants included in their sample fell by 12%. This does not mean wind power generation actually fell, as newly added capacity during the year is excluded from their data and capacity is up 20% year-on-year.
The production of solar cells fell 9% in October, likely reflecting some slowdown in domestic demand, but is still up 12% year-to-date.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
The production of solar cells fell 9% in October, likely reflecting some slowdown in domestic demand, but is still up 12% year-to-date.
The production of electric vehicles grew 19% in October and 28% year-to-date, with 12.7 mln vehicles produced year-to-date. The production of oil-burning vehicles grew 4% in October but fell 0.5% year-to-date.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
The production of electric vehicles grew 19% in October and 28% year-to-date, with 12.7 mln vehicles produced year-to-date. The production of oil-burning vehicles grew 4% in October but fell 0.5% year-to-date.
In other sectors, crude steel production fell sharply, by 12%, and cement output by 16%, both much steeper declines than year to date. Ethylene production growth (for plastics) accelerated further, up 12% and refinery throughput kept growing, at 6%.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
In other sectors, crude steel production fell sharply, by 12%, and cement output by 16%, both much steeper declines than year to date. Ethylene production growth (for plastics) accelerated further, up 12% and refinery throughput kept growing, at 6%.
Read the full article with more detailed analysis and methodology here:
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months - Carbon Brief
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were unchanged from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2025, extending a flat or falling trend that started in March 2024.
www.carbonbrief.org
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Read the full article with more detailed analysis and methodology here:
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
Beating the country’s clean energy targets is also necessary if policymakers want to maintain the tailwind that these sectors have provided to China’s economy recently — a slowdown in clean energy deployment would make the sector a drag on GDP that China can hardly afford.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Beating the country’s clean energy targets is also necessary if policymakers want to maintain the tailwind that these sectors have provided to China’s economy recently — a slowdown in clean energy deployment would make the sector a drag on GDP that China can hardly afford.
China’s 2030 Paris pledges require a strong CO2 intensity target in the next 5-year plan and preventing any significant emission rebound, by keeping clean energy going and tackling the incentive for local gov’ts and state firms to increase emissions before the peaking deadline.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
China’s 2030 Paris pledges require a strong CO2 intensity target in the next 5-year plan and preventing any significant emission rebound, by keeping clean energy going and tackling the incentive for local gov’ts and state firms to increase emissions before the peaking deadline.
China’s policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next years. However, to meet earlier 2030 pledges, emissions have to fall from 2024 to 2030, which also requires far exceeding the government’s clean energy targets, unless demand growth slows.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
China’s policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next years. However, to meet earlier 2030 pledges, emissions have to fall from 2024 to 2030, which also requires far exceeding the government’s clean energy targets, unless demand growth slows.
What is already clear is that the 2025 carbon-intensity target will be missed, as it would have required absolute emission reductions of 4% or more this year, after slow progress during the earlier years of the five-year period.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
What is already clear is that the 2025 carbon-intensity target will be missed, as it would have required absolute emission reductions of 4% or more this year, after slow progress during the earlier years of the five-year period.
China’s emissions from fossil fuels are highly likely to increase this year, with rising coal and oil use for chemicals outweighing the cuts from the power, metals, building materials and transportation sectors. This will be balanced out by a fall in cement process emissions.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
China’s emissions from fossil fuels are highly likely to increase this year, with rising coal and oil use for chemicals outweighing the cuts from the power, metals, building materials and transportation sectors. This will be balanced out by a fall in cement process emissions.
Whether emissions increased or decreased marginally in the first three quarters of the year is too close to call, given the uncertainties involved, but a drop in full-year emissions became much more likely after September, which recorded a ~3% drop.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Whether emissions increased or decreased marginally in the first three quarters of the year is too close to call, given the uncertainties involved, but a drop in full-year emissions became much more likely after September, which recorded a ~3% drop.
Overall, after the third quarter of 2025, it is clear that the plateau or slow decline of China’s CO2 emissions that started in early 2024 continues.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Overall, after the third quarter of 2025, it is clear that the plateau or slow decline of China’s CO2 emissions that started in early 2024 continues.
A big rise in the chemical industry’s coal and oil use offset reductions elsewhere. Production of plastics and other chemicals has been blooming, driven by domestic demand growth, import substitution - which gained extra impetus from the trade war - and exports.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
A big rise in the chemical industry’s coal and oil use offset reductions elsewhere. Production of plastics and other chemicals has been blooming, driven by domestic demand growth, import substitution - which gained extra impetus from the trade war - and exports.