Lauri Myllyvirta
@laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social
Co-founder and lead analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air; senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute: tracking & accelerating progress from polluting energy to clean air, with research and evidence.
October was unusually hot in the south, and much colder than previous years in the north. The rapid increase in air conditioner ownership means that people are using them more for heating in northern China, especially before district heating is turned on in November.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
October was unusually hot in the south, and much colder than previous years in the north. The rapid increase in air conditioner ownership means that people are using them more for heating in northern China, especially before district heating is turned on in November.
China's power generation from coal and gas saw a big jump in October, rising 7% on year. Generation is still down marginally, 0.4% in the year to October. Likely reasons: weather variation affecting residential&commercial power demand, and solar&wind curtailment.
November 14, 2025 at 6:24 AM
China's power generation from coal and gas saw a big jump in October, rising 7% on year. Generation is still down marginally, 0.4% in the year to October. Likely reasons: weather variation affecting residential&commercial power demand, and solar&wind curtailment.
So the data center expansion could contribute a 3% increase to U.S. energy CO2 emissions and 7% increase to fossil gas use by 2035. That's not insignificant and heaven knows we can't afford any extra CO2 but I think most people are getting an overblown idea of the impact.
November 13, 2025 at 1:34 PM
So the data center expansion could contribute a 3% increase to U.S. energy CO2 emissions and 7% increase to fossil gas use by 2035. That's not insignificant and heaven knows we can't afford any extra CO2 but I think most people are getting an overblown idea of the impact.
Beating the country’s clean energy targets is also necessary if policymakers want to maintain the tailwind that these sectors have provided to China’s economy recently — a slowdown in clean energy deployment would make the sector a drag on GDP that China can hardly afford.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Beating the country’s clean energy targets is also necessary if policymakers want to maintain the tailwind that these sectors have provided to China’s economy recently — a slowdown in clean energy deployment would make the sector a drag on GDP that China can hardly afford.
A big rise in the chemical industry’s coal and oil use offset reductions elsewhere. Production of plastics and other chemicals has been blooming, driven by domestic demand growth, import substitution - which gained extra impetus from the trade war - and exports.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
A big rise in the chemical industry’s coal and oil use offset reductions elsewhere. Production of plastics and other chemicals has been blooming, driven by domestic demand growth, import substitution - which gained extra impetus from the trade war - and exports.
Clean energy almost kept up with rapid demand growth in Q3, covering 90% of demand growth in Q3, with generation from solar growing by 46% and wind by 11% in Q3. Emissions were flat due to improved plant efficiency and increase in the share of gas at the expense of coal.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Clean energy almost kept up with rapid demand growth in Q3, covering 90% of demand growth in Q3, with generation from solar growing by 46% and wind by 11% in Q3. Emissions were flat due to improved plant efficiency and increase in the share of gas at the expense of coal.
Summer saw faster electricity demand growth, as has been the norm due to increasing use of air conditioners and hotter summers. Climate change is at work: the average cooling load increased by a third in less than a decade.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Summer saw faster electricity demand growth, as has been the norm due to increasing use of air conditioners and hotter summers. Climate change is at work: the average cooling load increased by a third in less than a decade.
While electricity demand has continued speedy growth, 4.6% in Jan-Sep, clean energy more than covered the increase, allowing power sector emissions to fall 2%. China completed 240GW solar and 61GW wind, putting it on track for another year of record clean energy additions.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
While electricity demand has continued speedy growth, 4.6% in Jan-Sep, clean energy more than covered the increase, allowing power sector emissions to fall 2%. China completed 240GW solar and 61GW wind, putting it on track for another year of record clean energy additions.
Emissions from power generation, construction materials, transportation and steel all fell in January-September, but two major obstacles to emission reductions in China stand out: the chemical industry and lack of progress on switching to electric steelmaking.
November 11, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Emissions from power generation, construction materials, transportation and steel all fell in January-September, but two major obstacles to emission reductions in China stand out: the chemical industry and lack of progress on switching to electric steelmaking.
China's first solar and wind auction under the new competitive contracting system, in Shandong, was a shock to solar developers due to low prices. After 5 more auctions, things look more balanced or at least more varied. No other province saw as large cuts to pricing as Shandong.
November 9, 2025 at 12:23 PM
China's first solar and wind auction under the new competitive contracting system, in Shandong, was a shock to solar developers due to low prices. After 5 more auctions, things look more balanced or at least more varied. No other province saw as large cuts to pricing as Shandong.
Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
November 3, 2025 at 7:05 AM
Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
Here are some of the important goals that I picked from the Central Committee’s recommendations:
October 29, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Here are some of the important goals that I picked from the Central Committee’s recommendations:
The Central Committee of the Communist Party lays out the key directions and priorities for China for the next five years. It reaffirms the importance of clean energy for China's energy, economic and industrial policy, but raises concerns about commitment to 2030 climate targets.
October 29, 2025 at 6:13 AM
The Central Committee of the Communist Party lays out the key directions and priorities for China for the next five years. It reaffirms the importance of clean energy for China's energy, economic and industrial policy, but raises concerns about commitment to 2030 climate targets.
In each country, there is a possibility of continued rapid clean energy buildout and phase-down of coal, or a drawn-out plateau. The difference between these possibilities would be equivalent to 500 large coal-fired power plants by 2035.
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 AM
In each country, there is a possibility of continued rapid clean energy buildout and phase-down of coal, or a drawn-out plateau. The difference between these possibilities would be equivalent to 500 large coal-fired power plants by 2035.
If successful, these countries would join several other BRICS nations (Brazil, South Africa, UAE, Ethiopia) in having peaked their power sector emissions, putting the bloc in a perhaps surprising position to claim climate leadership.
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 AM
If successful, these countries would join several other BRICS nations (Brazil, South Africa, UAE, Ethiopia) in having peaked their power sector emissions, putting the bloc in a perhaps surprising position to claim climate leadership.
In Indonesia, achieving President Prabowo's 100 GW solar goal, if realized, combined with the clean energy projects included in the state utility's business plan, will suffice peak emissions from power generation.
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 AM
In Indonesia, achieving President Prabowo's 100 GW solar goal, if realized, combined with the clean energy projects included in the state utility's business plan, will suffice peak emissions from power generation.
India’s power sector emissions will peak if the country meets its 2030 non-fossil energy target and continues adding clean energy at similar rates thereafter.
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 AM
India’s power sector emissions will peak if the country meets its 2030 non-fossil energy target and continues adding clean energy at similar rates thereafter.
China’s power sector emissions have been falling since early 2024 and will continue to decline if the country continues its current clean energy growth.
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 AM
China’s power sector emissions have been falling since early 2024 and will continue to decline if the country continues its current clean energy growth.
China, India and Indonesia used 73% of the world's coal in 2024. Without their emissions growth, global energy sector CO2 would have peaked before 2020. Coal use grew 15% in China, 42% in India, and 150% in Indonesia 2015-2024, while consumption in the rest of the world fell 23%.
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 AM
China, India and Indonesia used 73% of the world's coal in 2024. Without their emissions growth, global energy sector CO2 would have peaked before 2020. Coal use grew 15% in China, 42% in India, and 150% in Indonesia 2015-2024, while consumption in the rest of the world fell 23%.
Permitting of new coal plants spiked in the 2022H2, so it's those plants now starting to come online. As long as demand for power generation from coal is flat or falling, the capacity additions will drive utilization down and stiffen competition between coal and clean energy.
October 27, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Permitting of new coal plants spiked in the 2022H2, so it's those plants now starting to come online. As long as demand for power generation from coal is flat or falling, the capacity additions will drive utilization down and stiffen competition between coal and clean energy.
China power generation capacity additions in September:
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
October 27, 2025 at 11:44 AM
China power generation capacity additions in September:
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
Solar +9.3 GW
Wind +2.6
Nuclear +1.5
Hydro +0.6
Thermal (~coal&gas) +9.1 GW
Still very slow for solar&wind after the surge in May, but on track for a new record for the whole year.
Coal looking as bad as expected.
What it'd cost for Europe to be self-sufficient in solar panels: +~20% to the cost of panels if produced from Chinese cells; +50% for European cells, +75% for European ingots and wafers. BUT even the last option is just +15-20% to the cost of utility-scale & +5% for residential.
October 27, 2025 at 7:49 AM
What it'd cost for Europe to be self-sufficient in solar panels: +~20% to the cost of panels if produced from Chinese cells; +50% for European cells, +75% for European ingots and wafers. BUT even the last option is just +15-20% to the cost of utility-scale & +5% for residential.
Big China electricity&industial data update🧵for September:
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
October 20, 2025 at 5:03 AM
Big China electricity&industial data update🧵for September:
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
➡️Power generation from coal and gas dropped 5%, for a 1.2% fall in the first nine months of the year.
➡️Crude steel production fell by 5% and cement output by 9% in Sep, accelerating from 3% and 5% drops year-to-date.
A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.
October 15, 2025 at 11:18 AM
A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.
For example, here's the primary energy mix - note not just electricity but all energy - for Brazil, Finland and France, a few of the countries that have reached a high share and achieved rapid increases of clean energy in their energy mixes.
October 15, 2025 at 7:48 AM
For example, here's the primary energy mix - note not just electricity but all energy - for Brazil, Finland and France, a few of the countries that have reached a high share and achieved rapid increases of clean energy in their energy mixes.