@latestsurvivor.bsky.social
different timeframes, diff views ..
Thanks to everyone for pointing out that equal weight is outperforming SPY so for this year. It's been destroyed for more than a decade, during which time SPY is up 270%
February 9, 2026 at 1:40 PM
different timeframes, diff views ..
Reposted
This was the low. SPY made successive ATHs, climbing 7% in the next 2 months.
SPY is now back to its 20-wma (677). Deeper correction awaits if it fails (arrows)
SPY is now back to its 20-wma (677). Deeper correction awaits if it fails (arrows)
SPY weekly low on the 20-wma (arrows). Again, first time usually holds, so far no foul
February 5, 2026 at 4:06 PM
This was the low. SPY made successive ATHs, climbing 7% in the next 2 months.
SPY is now back to its 20-wma (677). Deeper correction awaits if it fails (arrows)
SPY is now back to its 20-wma (677). Deeper correction awaits if it fails (arrows)
Reposted
Rule of 3 is not a thing. January up 7 years in a row in the 1990s. This is another example of the Gambler's Fallacy, the belief that random, independent events somehow "balance out".
January 28, 2026 at 2:28 PM
Rule of 3 is not a thing. January up 7 years in a row in the 1990s. This is another example of the Gambler's Fallacy, the belief that random, independent events somehow "balance out".
Dont fight the math
Using real time shelter, headline inflation 1.9%, core 1.6%. Jeremy has been all over this for sometime.
January 14, 2026 at 2:24 PM
Dont fight the math
An honest person versus an out of mind politician and his clappers
Jerome Powell: "This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation."
January 12, 2026 at 3:20 AM
An honest person versus an out of mind politician and his clappers
Reposted
Today's lower than expected inflation data was expected
December 18, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Today's lower than expected inflation data was expected
Reposted
Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.
November 23, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.
old lecture but always needed .. tks
BAML sell signal on equities due to low cash. This triggered in July (LHS) and $SPX rose more than 10% without so much as a 3% drop in the interim.
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
November 19, 2025 at 9:44 AM
old lecture but always needed .. tks
Reposted
The first half of November is also 'historically strong' yet we're down 3% MTD. Late November rally after 4% drop? Sure, but not because of seasonality as we haven't followed the calendar all year
November 18, 2025 at 4:38 PM
The first half of November is also 'historically strong' yet we're down 3% MTD. Late November rally after 4% drop? Sure, but not because of seasonality as we haven't followed the calendar all year
Reposted
If a 20% 'bear market' is coming, $SPX will probably get choppy first. This chart shows drops >5%; the ones that are circled happened before the bear market started. The first >5% drop is almost always followed by a rebound to the prior high or even higher.
October 30, 2025 at 8:34 PM
If a 20% 'bear market' is coming, $SPX will probably get choppy first. This chart shows drops >5%; the ones that are circled happened before the bear market started. The first >5% drop is almost always followed by a rebound to the prior high or even higher.
Reposted
Here’s a good chart from Bespoke of how the current period is like 1997, and how it got significantly more euphoric in the years ahead. Don’t mistake this for an analogue
October 12, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Here’s a good chart from Bespoke of how the current period is like 1997, and how it got significantly more euphoric in the years ahead. Don’t mistake this for an analogue
Reposted
Here's a doomer collection from Feb 2023. $SPX had already bottomed and rose another +20% by YE. Complete trash
August 21, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Here's a doomer collection from Feb 2023. $SPX had already bottomed and rose another +20% by YE. Complete trash
Reposted
Junk bonds say things are looking up. Doesn't preclude interim volatility. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social
August 18, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Junk bonds say things are looking up. Doesn't preclude interim volatility. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social
Reposted
Reposted
looks like the trend is up for a while and then a change in the cycle
Core durable goods order shot up during Covid and have since been treading sideways. Retail sales have done the same. This has happened every cycle btw
July 27, 2025 at 2:16 PM
looks like the trend is up for a while and then a change in the cycle
Reposted
$SPX golden cross in effect. Next one month is a coin toss but returns >6 mo strongly positive.
July 2, 2025 at 10:36 AM
$SPX golden cross in effect. Next one month is a coin toss but returns >6 mo strongly positive.