Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz.bsky.social
Former: UBS Securities, Asia Ex-Pat, McKinsey, Mayor of Mill Valley, Finance Twitter. Fan of causal relationships, behavioral finance and the Quad Dipsea.
Pinned
Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz.bsky.social
· Nov 13
1. There’s no PPT
2. The Fed has been hated for 110 years
3. High probabilities do not imply certainty
4. It can always be different this time
5. Things go up over time
6. We’re not all going to agree
2. The Fed has been hated for 110 years
3. High probabilities do not imply certainty
4. It can always be different this time
5. Things go up over time
6. We’re not all going to agree
$SPX up 7 mo in a row. N=16 since 1950. All closed higher within 5 mo. 1980 rose 8 mo in a row and then it was straight downhill until 1982. From Subutrade
November 28, 2025 at 8:55 PM
$SPX up 7 mo in a row. N=16 since 1950. All closed higher within 5 mo. 1980 rose 8 mo in a row and then it was straight downhill until 1982. From Subutrade
50-d low and then >70% A/D issues within 4 days. N=13 in the past 55 years of which 3 happened this year. From NXGenNews
November 27, 2025 at 12:29 AM
50-d low and then >70% A/D issues within 4 days. N=13 in the past 55 years of which 3 happened this year. From NXGenNews
$SPX 60' RSI(5) = 95. Turkey might be getting a little overcooked. Similar in past 11-months highlighted.
November 26, 2025 at 3:50 PM
$SPX 60' RSI(5) = 95. Turkey might be getting a little overcooked. Similar in past 11-months highlighted.
So far, banks' 2026 YE targets are a median of 7600, about 11% higher than today's level. If you're a strategist, this target makes sense: since 1980, the market is up on the year nearly 80% of the time by an average of 11%. Table from Gemini
November 26, 2025 at 3:05 PM
So far, banks' 2026 YE targets are a median of 7600, about 11% higher than today's level. If you're a strategist, this target makes sense: since 1980, the market is up on the year nearly 80% of the time by an average of 11%. Table from Gemini
UE claims 216k this week. Comment below from a year ago still applies
UE claims only 219k this week. The last time UE was this low within 6-9 mo of a recession was more than 50 years ago when spending on a war in Vietnam and oil embargos caused persistent inflation. The labor force was half the size of today's.
November 26, 2025 at 2:47 PM
UE claims 216k this week. Comment below from a year ago still applies
Gemini 3: provide a chart of the cost of a turkey (per lbs) and the cost of a typical Thanksgiving meal for the past 11 years
November 26, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Gemini 3: provide a chart of the cost of a turkey (per lbs) and the cost of a typical Thanksgiving meal for the past 11 years
September real retail sales +1.2% yoy, ex-gas +1.3% yoy. Retail sales are at the level you'd expect them to be if the Covid shock had never occurred
November 26, 2025 at 3:01 AM
September real retail sales +1.2% yoy, ex-gas +1.3% yoy. Retail sales are at the level you'd expect them to be if the Covid shock had never occurred
Buy today's close, 17 of 18 closed higher by end of week. Folks like Thanksgiving
If Mon & Tues close higher does that kill the Wed-Fri Thanksgiving bullish edge? Nope. I'll be discussing this study and more in tonight's letter. Also...Black Friday sale coming later this week so it might be a good time to take a free trial: quantifiableedges.com/subscribers/... $SPY $SPX
November 25, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Buy today's close, 17 of 18 closed higher by end of week. Folks like Thanksgiving
Strong gains YTD but a down November has historically been followed by gains in December. Why? Momentum doesn't reverse on a dime.
bsky.app/profile/carl...
bsky.app/profile/carl...
“.. I looked back at bullish $SPX years through November-end (when SPX was +10% or more YTD) AND when November was a down month.
I found the December column interesting …”
- B of A desk
I found the December column interesting …”
- B of A desk
November 24, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Strong gains YTD but a down November has historically been followed by gains in December. Why? Momentum doesn't reverse on a dime.
bsky.app/profile/carl...
bsky.app/profile/carl...
Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.
November 23, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.
Good lists, although it’s missing a favorite @dow.bsky.social
Follow the starter packs:
Investing go.bsky.app/Qn6r8WD
Econ go.bsky.app/Q3Vt4ef
Ritholtz All Stars go.bsky.app/K7pijeB
Investing go.bsky.app/Qn6r8WD
Econ go.bsky.app/Q3Vt4ef
Ritholtz All Stars go.bsky.app/K7pijeB
bsky.app
November 22, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Good lists, although it’s missing a favorite @dow.bsky.social
See how long it takes for my copy cat to repost these charts as his own on X
November 21, 2025 at 12:24 AM
See how long it takes for my copy cat to repost these charts as his own on X
This is from Oct 22 when SPY was still rising (it gained another 3% to its most recent ATH). With today's reversal, it's now had its first >5% drop, so, big picture, this pattern is in play
If a 20% 'bear market' is coming, $SPX will probably get choppy first. This chart shows drops >5%; the ones that are circled happened before the bear market started. The first >5% drop is almost always followed by a rebound to the prior high or even higher.
November 21, 2025 at 12:22 AM
This is from Oct 22 when SPY was still rising (it gained another 3% to its most recent ATH). With today's reversal, it's now had its first >5% drop, so, big picture, this pattern is in play
SPY sitting almost on its 20-wma (see arrows). First touch in a long time (like now) usually holds. This post from early March before a further 15% slide
$SPY closed below its 20-wma last week for the first time since 2023. A first break like this normally means the 20-wma (currently 594) is now resistance on any rally
November 21, 2025 at 12:10 AM
SPY sitting almost on its 20-wma (see arrows). First touch in a long time (like now) usually holds. This post from early March before a further 15% slide
Fear & Greed at 6. It was 4 when SPX bottomed on April 7.
November 21, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Fear & Greed at 6. It was 4 when SPX bottomed on April 7.
The CW is that $SPX is flat YTD before mid term elections. Here's the last 11 instances. 72% are up but the 3 down years were doozies, so the average is flat. 72% is the same as any year, so mid terms aren't especially different.
November 20, 2025 at 3:37 PM
The CW is that $SPX is flat YTD before mid term elections. Here's the last 11 instances. 72% are up but the 3 down years were doozies, so the average is flat. 72% is the same as any year, so mid terms aren't especially different.
BAML sell signal on equities due to low cash. This triggered in July (LHS) and $SPX rose more than 10% without so much as a 3% drop in the interim.
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
November 18, 2025 at 4:58 PM
BAML sell signal on equities due to low cash. This triggered in July (LHS) and $SPX rose more than 10% without so much as a 3% drop in the interim.
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
Remember this? $SPX down 4% since 10/27. Seasonality charts are the worst
$SPY rose 8% between 9/2 and 10/27, so it makes sense that the Santa Claus rally starts today. That's sarcasm btw
bsky.app/profile/carl...
bsky.app/profile/carl...
DEUTSCHE: Today marks the point that, on average, kicks off the “Santa Claus Rally” in the US.
$SPX
$SPX
November 18, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Remember this? $SPX down 4% since 10/27. Seasonality charts are the worst
The first half of November is also 'historically strong' yet we're down 3% MTD. Late November rally after 4% drop? Sure, but not because of seasonality as we haven't followed the calendar all year
November 18, 2025 at 4:38 PM
The first half of November is also 'historically strong' yet we're down 3% MTD. Late November rally after 4% drop? Sure, but not because of seasonality as we haven't followed the calendar all year
Fear & Greed under 15. $SPX higher 3-mo later 92% of time in past 27 years. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social
November 18, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Fear & Greed under 15. $SPX higher 3-mo later 92% of time in past 27 years. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social
Like ATL vs NE in SB 51, bitcoin went from +30% YTD last month to negative on the year. Bagholders on the sidelines
November 17, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Like ATL vs NE in SB 51, bitcoin went from +30% YTD last month to negative on the year. Bagholders on the sidelines
Love this. Rallied 1% to close green.
November 7, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Love this. Rallied 1% to close green.
$SPY - a close < 666.6 would be the first 3% drawdown since April. At that point, it'll be just 0.4% above its 50-d. That's a rare, long streak. Source on chart
November 6, 2025 at 7:40 PM
$SPY - a close < 666.6 would be the first 3% drawdown since April. At that point, it'll be just 0.4% above its 50-d. That's a rare, long streak. Source on chart
After a +25% rally the past "worst" 6 months, $SPX has a 50/50 chance of going sideways the next "best" 6 months.
November 6, 2025 at 7:04 PM
After a +25% rally the past "worst" 6 months, $SPX has a 50/50 chance of going sideways the next "best" 6 months.
Six month win streaks haven’t marked important tops. Going back to 1950, each of the prior 23 instances has been followed by further gains in the months ahead. From Almanac Trader
November 3, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Six month win streaks haven’t marked important tops. Going back to 1950, each of the prior 23 instances has been followed by further gains in the months ahead. From Almanac Trader