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Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz.bsky.social

1.4K followers 47 following 320 posts

Former: UBS Securities, Asia Ex-Pat, McKinsey, Mayor of Mill Valley, Finance Twitter. Fan of causal relationships, behavioral finance and the Quad Dipsea.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Nov 13

1. There’s no PPT
2. The Fed has been hated for 110 years
3. High probabilities do not imply certainty
4. It can always be different this time
5. Things go up over time
6. We’re not all going to agree

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 14h

Here’s a good chart from Bespoke of how the current period is like 1997, and how it got significantly more euphoric in the years ahead. Don’t mistake this for an analogue

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 11d

Never lower 8 months out. Risk/reward NTM >3:1 positive

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 11d

Assume it's either to enrich his family or distract you from the pedophile investigation and you'll be right 95% of the time

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 11d

Shutdown in 4 charts: SPX can get whacked during shutdown but it normally doesn't last

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 11d

Here are the last 9 instances after SPX had risen 5 months in a row. 2017 (tax cuts) was the cleanest near term but SPX lower 18 months later; 2021 was followed by a very rough 2022

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 11d

SPX up 5 months in a row. Higher a year later 94% of time. Doesn't mean smooth sailing: last time was exactly a year ago and SPX was lower 7 months later and was down 5 of the following 7 months. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 12d

September up 3.6% making it one of the best months of the year so far! Seasonality guys said down, so they're 0 for the last 5 months. But they say October is the most dangerous month of year

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 13d

In the past year, NDX is up 20%. Past 2 years, it's up 50%.

In the dot com era, NDX went up 100% in the final year, up 250% the final two years and up an astounding 600% the last 4 years.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 13d

The current period is being compared to 1999. It's not anywhere near that crazy. Maybe more like 1996-97. Here's one way they are not alike. The 1999 IPO was bonkers

Sam Ro @tker.co · 13d

Average first-day returns of IPOs

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 27d

$NDX up 9 in a row. We're supposedly in the weakest month

Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · 27d

SOX green 8 straight.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 29d

The Turd Reich

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 12

So far, Year 3 is up +16% and higher the last 5 months in a row.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 12

They were max long in July 2024 and $SPX closed the year 10% higher with interim risk/reward 2:1 positive.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 11

bsky.app/profile/carl...

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · Sep 11

BREAN: “.. The surge in jobless claims in the first week of September appears to be almost entirely due to a jump in claims in Texas and, therefore, we do not take it as a sign of a broad-based pickup in layoffs.”

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 11

UE claims up at 263k this week. It's been up here a few times in the past 5 yrs and then turned lower, so what happens next seems to be make or break (LHS). Prior expansions, OTOH, never even got as low as this level, which makes it seem irrelevant (RHS)

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 11

An 88% win rate is significant

Quantifiable Edges @quantifiableedges.bsky.social · Sep 11

Since the 9/11/2001 attacks and tragedy, September 11th has been a very strong day for the market. See study below, which will be included in tonight's subscriber letter. $SPX $SPY

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 8

1929, 1987 or 2008
bsky.app/profile/hmei...

Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · Sep 8

I have always said the reason I am not an analog fan is that they always seem to end up in a 1929 crash. Crashes are incredibly rare. Please stop searching for the outliers.
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 5

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 5

cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thu...

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 5

Negative jobs print without a recession within 8-months? Last time was 1997 but back then prior month was +298K and following month was nearly +500k. Similar instances in 1993, 1995 and 1996; flukey one-offs in the midst of very strong jobs. Now, surrounding months are very weak: +19k and +79k

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 5

June NFP was -13k, the first negative jobs number since Dec. 2020

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 4

More here: awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/02/deco...

Deconstructing 10, 20 & 30 Year Stock Market Returns - A Wealth of Common Sense

A look at the historical long-term returns for the U.S. stock market.

awealthofcommonsense.com

Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 4

The lowest annual return over ANY 30 year period going back to 1926 was 7.8%.

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · Sep 4

A lot of bad stuff has happened in the past 30 years

The US stock market still returned more than 10% per year

A lot of bad stuff will happen in the future too

And stocks are still a good long-term bet

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/30-y...

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Sep 2

Same source, different conclusion.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · Aug 29

August on track for +2% gain. Seasonality guys said down, peak beginning of month. Instead, new ATH yesterday. If September down, they'll be 1 for 5. This is how you underperform in an uptrend

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