Lance Brozdowski
@lancebroz.bsky.social
Player Development Analyst for Marquee Sports Network. YouTube and Substack Pitching Content Creator.
Dove deep into the advanced data on some NPB stars that could impact MLB in 2026!
⚾️ Munetaka Murakami - Huge pop + scary contact
⚾️ Tatsuya Imai - "wrong way" slider & flat-approach 4S
⚾️ Hiroto Saiki - 55° arm angle ... no whiffs?!
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/MAWQqe3YBFE
⚾️ Munetaka Murakami - Huge pop + scary contact
⚾️ Tatsuya Imai - "wrong way" slider & flat-approach 4S
⚾️ Hiroto Saiki - 55° arm angle ... no whiffs?!
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/MAWQqe3YBFE
October 20, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Dove deep into the advanced data on some NPB stars that could impact MLB in 2026!
⚾️ Munetaka Murakami - Huge pop + scary contact
⚾️ Tatsuya Imai - "wrong way" slider & flat-approach 4S
⚾️ Hiroto Saiki - 55° arm angle ... no whiffs?!
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/MAWQqe3YBFE
⚾️ Munetaka Murakami - Huge pop + scary contact
⚾️ Tatsuya Imai - "wrong way" slider & flat-approach 4S
⚾️ Hiroto Saiki - 55° arm angle ... no whiffs?!
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/MAWQqe3YBFE
UPDATED top 40 pitching prospects just dropped!
Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡
Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...
Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡
Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...
September 2, 2025 at 7:38 PM
UPDATED top 40 pitching prospects just dropped!
Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡
Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...
Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡
Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...
It's the year of the pitch mix!
Will the rate of repertoire expansion ever slow down? Who is adding pitches the quickest? Which team is *dominating* mix in the minors?
Let's explore 2025's biggest trend. 👀
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Bj6D-bdKHVc
Will the rate of repertoire expansion ever slow down? Who is adding pitches the quickest? Which team is *dominating* mix in the minors?
Let's explore 2025's biggest trend. 👀
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Bj6D-bdKHVc
August 28, 2025 at 9:22 PM
It's the year of the pitch mix!
Will the rate of repertoire expansion ever slow down? Who is adding pitches the quickest? Which team is *dominating* mix in the minors?
Let's explore 2025's biggest trend. 👀
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Bj6D-bdKHVc
Will the rate of repertoire expansion ever slow down? Who is adding pitches the quickest? Which team is *dominating* mix in the minors?
Let's explore 2025's biggest trend. 👀
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Bj6D-bdKHVc
Dove into a trio of pitching prospects in search of MLB's next ace...
Jonah Tong, Payton Tolle & Trey Yesavage
Each has incredibly distinct mechanics with near-outlier elements to their game. But who is the clear #1? 👀
Tease below, full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2p...
Jonah Tong, Payton Tolle & Trey Yesavage
Each has incredibly distinct mechanics with near-outlier elements to their game. But who is the clear #1? 👀
Tease below, full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2p...
August 21, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Dove into a trio of pitching prospects in search of MLB's next ace...
Jonah Tong, Payton Tolle & Trey Yesavage
Each has incredibly distinct mechanics with near-outlier elements to their game. But who is the clear #1? 👀
Tease below, full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2p...
Jonah Tong, Payton Tolle & Trey Yesavage
Each has incredibly distinct mechanics with near-outlier elements to their game. But who is the clear #1? 👀
Tease below, full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2p...
Who has the best bullpen in MLB?
Inspired by a recent @enosarris.bsky.social piece, I dug into 4 units, searching for funky arms and considering what stats we want to value in leverage relief situations.
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/rUqHnjxpU6I
Inspired by a recent @enosarris.bsky.social piece, I dug into 4 units, searching for funky arms and considering what stats we want to value in leverage relief situations.
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/rUqHnjxpU6I
August 13, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Who has the best bullpen in MLB?
Inspired by a recent @enosarris.bsky.social piece, I dug into 4 units, searching for funky arms and considering what stats we want to value in leverage relief situations.
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/rUqHnjxpU6I
Inspired by a recent @enosarris.bsky.social piece, I dug into 4 units, searching for funky arms and considering what stats we want to value in leverage relief situations.
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/rUqHnjxpU6I
Recent stuff to hit my Substack...
⚾️ Zebby Matthews debuted a sinker last night & the Braves fixed Joey Wentz?
⚾️ ($) Kevin McGonigle's batted-ball data (amazing), Sebastian Walcott's data (not amazing?)
⚾️ ($) Esteban Mejia's FCL shape data (Sasaki comp?)
Links in thread! 👀
⚾️ Zebby Matthews debuted a sinker last night & the Braves fixed Joey Wentz?
⚾️ ($) Kevin McGonigle's batted-ball data (amazing), Sebastian Walcott's data (not amazing?)
⚾️ ($) Esteban Mejia's FCL shape data (Sasaki comp?)
Links in thread! 👀
August 6, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Recent stuff to hit my Substack...
⚾️ Zebby Matthews debuted a sinker last night & the Braves fixed Joey Wentz?
⚾️ ($) Kevin McGonigle's batted-ball data (amazing), Sebastian Walcott's data (not amazing?)
⚾️ ($) Esteban Mejia's FCL shape data (Sasaki comp?)
Links in thread! 👀
⚾️ Zebby Matthews debuted a sinker last night & the Braves fixed Joey Wentz?
⚾️ ($) Kevin McGonigle's batted-ball data (amazing), Sebastian Walcott's data (not amazing?)
⚾️ ($) Esteban Mejia's FCL shape data (Sasaki comp?)
Links in thread! 👀
Just dropped one of my favorite videos in a long time... on CUTTERS.
A bunch of goodies within... Mariano Rivera's cutter shape metrics 👀, the "zero line bias", Red Sox + Brewers crushing SP development, Max Fried's seam-shift CT, & more!
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/AjwQimplMpU
A bunch of goodies within... Mariano Rivera's cutter shape metrics 👀, the "zero line bias", Red Sox + Brewers crushing SP development, Max Fried's seam-shift CT, & more!
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/AjwQimplMpU
August 5, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Just dropped one of my favorite videos in a long time... on CUTTERS.
A bunch of goodies within... Mariano Rivera's cutter shape metrics 👀, the "zero line bias", Red Sox + Brewers crushing SP development, Max Fried's seam-shift CT, & more!
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/AjwQimplMpU
A bunch of goodies within... Mariano Rivera's cutter shape metrics 👀, the "zero line bias", Red Sox + Brewers crushing SP development, Max Fried's seam-shift CT, & more!
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/AjwQimplMpU
Trade deadline was a blast! I went through the surplus value going each way in a bunch of trades.
-Why everything feels like an overpay
-Difficulty reconciling reliever value on paper vs reality
-Lot of good non-40-man pitching changed hands
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/XbQuppGmuqI
-Why everything feels like an overpay
-Difficulty reconciling reliever value on paper vs reality
-Lot of good non-40-man pitching changed hands
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/XbQuppGmuqI
August 1, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Trade deadline was a blast! I went through the surplus value going each way in a bunch of trades.
-Why everything feels like an overpay
-Difficulty reconciling reliever value on paper vs reality
-Lot of good non-40-man pitching changed hands
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/XbQuppGmuqI
-Why everything feels like an overpay
-Difficulty reconciling reliever value on paper vs reality
-Lot of good non-40-man pitching changed hands
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/XbQuppGmuqI
Serwinowski's mechanics are wacky.
He's 6'5", ~7' extension, 5.8' release. 4S-SL-CH. 4S is 94 mph, 16.5" VB, 6" arm-side. 82-mph slider has 7" sweep, short sweeper. CH is mid.
Average swing miss on everything vs righties, below average on strikes. Velo play for Dodgers? 🤔
He's 6'5", ~7' extension, 5.8' release. 4S-SL-CH. 4S is 94 mph, 16.5" VB, 6" arm-side. 82-mph slider has 7" sweep, short sweeper. CH is mid.
Average swing miss on everything vs righties, below average on strikes. Velo play for Dodgers? 🤔
July 31, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Serwinowski's mechanics are wacky.
He's 6'5", ~7' extension, 5.8' release. 4S-SL-CH. 4S is 94 mph, 16.5" VB, 6" arm-side. 82-mph slider has 7" sweep, short sweeper. CH is mid.
Average swing miss on everything vs righties, below average on strikes. Velo play for Dodgers? 🤔
He's 6'5", ~7' extension, 5.8' release. 4S-SL-CH. 4S is 94 mph, 16.5" VB, 6" arm-side. 82-mph slider has 7" sweep, short sweeper. CH is mid.
Average swing miss on everything vs righties, below average on strikes. Velo play for Dodgers? 🤔
Nett is already throwing 6 pitches: 4S, SK, CH, CT/SL, SWP, CU. Mix guy with below-avg strike/zone rates. Even splits, strong LHH mix.
4S averages 96 mph, 15" VB, 5" arm-side, 5.8' rel. Enough velo to bypass meh shape.
CT/SL is best pitch. 90 mph, 5" VB, 3" glove-side (below).
4S averages 96 mph, 15" VB, 5" arm-side, 5.8' rel. Enough velo to bypass meh shape.
CT/SL is best pitch. 90 mph, 5" VB, 3" glove-side (below).
July 31, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Nett is already throwing 6 pitches: 4S, SK, CH, CT/SL, SWP, CU. Mix guy with below-avg strike/zone rates. Even splits, strong LHH mix.
4S averages 96 mph, 15" VB, 5" arm-side, 5.8' rel. Enough velo to bypass meh shape.
CT/SL is best pitch. 90 mph, 5" VB, 3" glove-side (below).
4S averages 96 mph, 15" VB, 5" arm-side, 5.8' rel. Enough velo to bypass meh shape.
CT/SL is best pitch. 90 mph, 5" VB, 3" glove-side (below).
Ranked the top 10 most interesting pitchers rest of season. 👀
Deadline implications, why is Quinn Priester good, examining the lower-slot version of George Kirby, and much more.
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/DudQJ_vEKu8
Deadline implications, why is Quinn Priester good, examining the lower-slot version of George Kirby, and much more.
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/DudQJ_vEKu8
July 28, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Ranked the top 10 most interesting pitchers rest of season. 👀
Deadline implications, why is Quinn Priester good, examining the lower-slot version of George Kirby, and much more.
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/DudQJ_vEKu8
Deadline implications, why is Quinn Priester good, examining the lower-slot version of George Kirby, and much more.
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/DudQJ_vEKu8
Did a deep dive on trade valuation and how small projection differences can swing deals. 👀
What's the package for the #Cubs to get Sandy Alcantara? Or the #Yankees to get Eugenio Suarez & Zac Gallen?
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/3gza-PODHOA
What's the package for the #Cubs to get Sandy Alcantara? Or the #Yankees to get Eugenio Suarez & Zac Gallen?
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/3gza-PODHOA
July 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Did a deep dive on trade valuation and how small projection differences can swing deals. 👀
What's the package for the #Cubs to get Sandy Alcantara? Or the #Yankees to get Eugenio Suarez & Zac Gallen?
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/3gza-PODHOA
What's the package for the #Cubs to get Sandy Alcantara? Or the #Yankees to get Eugenio Suarez & Zac Gallen?
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/3gza-PODHOA
Jacob Misiorowski has 98th percentile 4S velocity & 99th percentile 4S extension. 🤯
How much does extension independently matter? Or is it inseparable from height and early-chain movement patterns?
Just dropped a new video covering it! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/rXxxkg6mjGY
How much does extension independently matter? Or is it inseparable from height and early-chain movement patterns?
Just dropped a new video covering it! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/rXxxkg6mjGY
July 9, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Jacob Misiorowski has 98th percentile 4S velocity & 99th percentile 4S extension. 🤯
How much does extension independently matter? Or is it inseparable from height and early-chain movement patterns?
Just dropped a new video covering it! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/rXxxkg6mjGY
How much does extension independently matter? Or is it inseparable from height and early-chain movement patterns?
Just dropped a new video covering it! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/rXxxkg6mjGY
Dug back into a topic I love thinking about: pitch decay
How does a pitch wane in effectiveness as it's thrown more? How do you repair that value?
It applies to the at-bat of the year so far: Aaron Judge vs Garrett Crochet from June 13
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/N1i_B4foUqw
How does a pitch wane in effectiveness as it's thrown more? How do you repair that value?
It applies to the at-bat of the year so far: Aaron Judge vs Garrett Crochet from June 13
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/N1i_B4foUqw
June 23, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Dug back into a topic I love thinking about: pitch decay
How does a pitch wane in effectiveness as it's thrown more? How do you repair that value?
It applies to the at-bat of the year so far: Aaron Judge vs Garrett Crochet from June 13
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/N1i_B4foUqw
How does a pitch wane in effectiveness as it's thrown more? How do you repair that value?
It applies to the at-bat of the year so far: Aaron Judge vs Garrett Crochet from June 13
Tease below, full video: youtu.be/N1i_B4foUqw
Shane Baz flipped from a slider to a cutter on June 15, threw it 38% in yesterday's outing too.
He allowed 5 barrels on his slider in May, struggled mightily versus right-handed hitters.
Cutter shape: 89 mph, 9" vert, ~4" glove-side
More in my substack: lancebroz.substack.com/p/rays-shane...
He allowed 5 barrels on his slider in May, struggled mightily versus right-handed hitters.
Cutter shape: 89 mph, 9" vert, ~4" glove-side
More in my substack: lancebroz.substack.com/p/rays-shane...
June 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Shane Baz flipped from a slider to a cutter on June 15, threw it 38% in yesterday's outing too.
He allowed 5 barrels on his slider in May, struggled mightily versus right-handed hitters.
Cutter shape: 89 mph, 9" vert, ~4" glove-side
More in my substack: lancebroz.substack.com/p/rays-shane...
He allowed 5 barrels on his slider in May, struggled mightily versus right-handed hitters.
Cutter shape: 89 mph, 9" vert, ~4" glove-side
More in my substack: lancebroz.substack.com/p/rays-shane...
Who are the best pitching development orgs in MLB? 🤔
New video just dropped where I rummage through non-public aggregated MiLB data to spot trends & attempt to tackle this difficult question.
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/EXCZRYFYJSA
New video just dropped where I rummage through non-public aggregated MiLB data to spot trends & attempt to tackle this difficult question.
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/EXCZRYFYJSA
June 12, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Who are the best pitching development orgs in MLB? 🤔
New video just dropped where I rummage through non-public aggregated MiLB data to spot trends & attempt to tackle this difficult question.
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/EXCZRYFYJSA
New video just dropped where I rummage through non-public aggregated MiLB data to spot trends & attempt to tackle this difficult question.
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/EXCZRYFYJSA
Catch probability has a pretty big flaw that skews our public perception of the statistic.
For one, balls given <50% probability are routinely underestimated in their difficulty (aka... they're wrong).
But does it actually matter?
Tease below, full video here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswV...
For one, balls given <50% probability are routinely underestimated in their difficulty (aka... they're wrong).
But does it actually matter?
Tease below, full video here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswV...
June 10, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Catch probability has a pretty big flaw that skews our public perception of the statistic.
For one, balls given <50% probability are routinely underestimated in their difficulty (aka... they're wrong).
But does it actually matter?
Tease below, full video here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswV...
For one, balls given <50% probability are routinely underestimated in their difficulty (aka... they're wrong).
But does it actually matter?
Tease below, full video here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswV...
The #Yankees pitching lab has been cooking this year. They've made material adjustments to Max Fried, Fernando Cruz, Carlos Rodon, and the 🐐, Ryan Yarbrough.
New video just dropped on their dominance in the realm of seam effects. 👀
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/0Xn7YReqSPo
New video just dropped on their dominance in the realm of seam effects. 👀
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/0Xn7YReqSPo
June 5, 2025 at 9:18 PM
The #Yankees pitching lab has been cooking this year. They've made material adjustments to Max Fried, Fernando Cruz, Carlos Rodon, and the 🐐, Ryan Yarbrough.
New video just dropped on their dominance in the realm of seam effects. 👀
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/0Xn7YReqSPo
New video just dropped on their dominance in the realm of seam effects. 👀
Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/0Xn7YReqSPo
🚨Collab video with @kileymcd.bsky.social 🚨
We dug into 10 advanced data standouts from the 2025 minor league season so far.
Includes data on... Jac Caglianone 👀, Zyhir Hope, Payton Tolle, Ryan Sloan, Luke Dickerson, Trey Yesavage, & more
Tease below, full vid: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwn...
We dug into 10 advanced data standouts from the 2025 minor league season so far.
Includes data on... Jac Caglianone 👀, Zyhir Hope, Payton Tolle, Ryan Sloan, Luke Dickerson, Trey Yesavage, & more
Tease below, full vid: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwn...
May 29, 2025 at 8:43 PM
🚨Collab video with @kileymcd.bsky.social 🚨
We dug into 10 advanced data standouts from the 2025 minor league season so far.
Includes data on... Jac Caglianone 👀, Zyhir Hope, Payton Tolle, Ryan Sloan, Luke Dickerson, Trey Yesavage, & more
Tease below, full vid: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwn...
We dug into 10 advanced data standouts from the 2025 minor league season so far.
Includes data on... Jac Caglianone 👀, Zyhir Hope, Payton Tolle, Ryan Sloan, Luke Dickerson, Trey Yesavage, & more
Tease below, full vid: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwn...
Dove into Statcast's new swing metrics!
Found some deep point-of-contact mashers, vertical bat angle adjusters, and a whole bunch more. 👀
Tease below, full vid here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv1S...
Found some deep point-of-contact mashers, vertical bat angle adjusters, and a whole bunch more. 👀
Tease below, full vid here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv1S...
May 22, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Dove into Statcast's new swing metrics!
Found some deep point-of-contact mashers, vertical bat angle adjusters, and a whole bunch more. 👀
Tease below, full vid here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv1S...
Found some deep point-of-contact mashers, vertical bat angle adjusters, and a whole bunch more. 👀
Tease below, full vid here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv1S...
Here's the #Yankees orientation change on Max Fried's sinker. Two-seam last year to one-seam spin this year.
xSLG down 50 pts, whiffs up ~50%.
Big difference is in the vertical break. Lower number = more drop...
2024: 8.5" vertical break ➡️ 2025: 4.7" vertical break
xSLG down 50 pts, whiffs up ~50%.
Big difference is in the vertical break. Lower number = more drop...
2024: 8.5" vertical break ➡️ 2025: 4.7" vertical break
May 16, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Here's the #Yankees orientation change on Max Fried's sinker. Two-seam last year to one-seam spin this year.
xSLG down 50 pts, whiffs up ~50%.
Big difference is in the vertical break. Lower number = more drop...
2024: 8.5" vertical break ➡️ 2025: 4.7" vertical break
xSLG down 50 pts, whiffs up ~50%.
Big difference is in the vertical break. Lower number = more drop...
2024: 8.5" vertical break ➡️ 2025: 4.7" vertical break
Dove into the world of biomechanics to consider whether lower arm angles will keep pitchers healthier.
Challenging topic! I learned a lot and got some great info from a bunch of MLB sources. ⚾️
Tease below! Full video: youtu.be/-_1RF1ztJTI
Challenging topic! I learned a lot and got some great info from a bunch of MLB sources. ⚾️
Tease below! Full video: youtu.be/-_1RF1ztJTI
May 2, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Dove into the world of biomechanics to consider whether lower arm angles will keep pitchers healthier.
Challenging topic! I learned a lot and got some great info from a bunch of MLB sources. ⚾️
Tease below! Full video: youtu.be/-_1RF1ztJTI
Challenging topic! I learned a lot and got some great info from a bunch of MLB sources. ⚾️
Tease below! Full video: youtu.be/-_1RF1ztJTI