Lance Brozdowski
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lancebroz.bsky.social
Lance Brozdowski
@lancebroz.bsky.social
6.2K followers 180 following 150 posts
Player Development Analyst for Marquee Sports Network. YouTube and Substack Pitching Content Creator.
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lancebroz.bsky.social
Dove deep into the advanced data on some NPB stars that could impact MLB in 2026!

⚾️ Munetaka Murakami - Huge pop + scary contact
⚾️ Tatsuya Imai - "wrong way" slider & flat-approach 4S
⚾️ Hiroto Saiki - 55° arm angle ... no whiffs?!

Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/MAWQqe3YBFE
October 20, 2025 at 8:51 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
UPDATED top 40 pitching prospects just dropped!

Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡

Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...
September 2, 2025 at 7:38 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
It's the year of the pitch mix!

Will the rate of repertoire expansion ever slow down? Who is adding pitches the quickest? Which team is *dominating* mix in the minors?

Let's explore 2025's biggest trend. 👀

Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Bj6D-bdKHVc
August 28, 2025 at 9:22 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Dove into a trio of pitching prospects in search of MLB's next ace...

Jonah Tong, Payton Tolle & Trey Yesavage

Each has incredibly distinct mechanics with near-outlier elements to their game. But who is the clear #1? 👀

Tease below, full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2p...
August 21, 2025 at 11:37 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Who has the best bullpen in MLB?

Inspired by a recent @enosarris.bsky.social piece, I dug into 4 units, searching for funky arms and considering what stats we want to value in leverage relief situations.

Tease below, full video: youtu.be/rUqHnjxpU6I
August 13, 2025 at 6:45 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Recent stuff to hit my Substack...

⚾️ Zebby Matthews debuted a sinker last night & the Braves fixed Joey Wentz?
⚾️ ($) Kevin McGonigle's batted-ball data (amazing), Sebastian Walcott's data (not amazing?)
⚾️ ($) Esteban Mejia's FCL shape data (Sasaki comp?)

Links in thread! 👀
August 6, 2025 at 5:24 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Just dropped one of my favorite videos in a long time... on CUTTERS.

A bunch of goodies within... Mariano Rivera's cutter shape metrics 👀, the "zero line bias", Red Sox + Brewers crushing SP development, Max Fried's seam-shift CT, & more!

Tease below, full video: youtu.be/AjwQimplMpU
August 5, 2025 at 8:04 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Trade deadline was a blast! I went through the surplus value going each way in a bunch of trades.

-Why everything feels like an overpay
-Difficulty reconciling reliever value on paper vs reality
-Lot of good non-40-man pitching changed hands

Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/XbQuppGmuqI
August 1, 2025 at 8:52 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Serwinowski's mechanics are wacky.

He's 6'5", ~7' extension, 5.8' release. 4S-SL-CH. 4S is 94 mph, 16.5" VB, 6" arm-side. 82-mph slider has 7" sweep, short sweeper. CH is mid.

Average swing miss on everything vs righties, below average on strikes. Velo play for Dodgers? 🤔
July 31, 2025 at 7:26 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
My thoughts on the arms going back to Arizona alongside Locklear for Suarez are below. Both reliever outlooks. Cranton's fastball is electric.

This return feels light for one of the best rental bats available ... don't think I'm the only one that believes that...
July 31, 2025 at 7:24 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Stephen is a great get for the #Guardians.

Big carry 4S, high slot, ++ zone feel. 72% strike rate, average swg strk, great underlying contact quality allowed (<.300 xwOBAcon).

93 mph, 20" VB, 9" arm-side, 6.6' ext, 6.2' release

More data of his in the screenshot below!
July 31, 2025 at 7:23 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Nett is already throwing 6 pitches: 4S, SK, CH, CT/SL, SWP, CU. Mix guy with below-avg strike/zone rates. Even splits, strong LHH mix.

4S averages 96 mph, 15" VB, 5" arm-side, 5.8' rel. Enough velo to bypass meh shape.

CT/SL is best pitch. 90 mph, 5" VB, 3" glove-side (below).
July 31, 2025 at 7:20 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Ranked the top 10 most interesting pitchers rest of season. 👀

Deadline implications, why is Quinn Priester good, examining the lower-slot version of George Kirby, and much more.

Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/DudQJ_vEKu8
July 28, 2025 at 8:20 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Did a deep dive on trade valuation and how small projection differences can swing deals. 👀

What's the package for the #Cubs to get Sandy Alcantara? Or the #Yankees to get Eugenio Suarez & Zac Gallen?

Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/3gza-PODHOA
July 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Jacob Misiorowski has 98th percentile 4S velocity & 99th percentile 4S extension. 🤯

How much does extension independently matter? Or is it inseparable from height and early-chain movement patterns?

Just dropped a new video covering it! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/rXxxkg6mjGY
July 9, 2025 at 8:26 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Missed this, sorry! Well since you asked, here’s his college data (pic).

I think I’d draft and try to stretch him out (because of the 2 fastballs). There’s gotta be a better CH in there too, which should help some of the LHH issues he had.
July 5, 2025 at 5:16 AM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Dug back into a topic I love thinking about: pitch decay

How does a pitch wane in effectiveness as it's thrown more? How do you repair that value?

It applies to the at-bat of the year so far: Aaron Judge vs Garrett Crochet from June 13

Tease below, full video: youtu.be/N1i_B4foUqw
June 23, 2025 at 9:17 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Shane Baz flipped from a slider to a cutter on June 15, threw it 38% in yesterday's outing too.

He allowed 5 barrels on his slider in May, struggled mightily versus right-handed hitters.

Cutter shape: 89 mph, 9" vert, ~4" glove-side

More in my substack: lancebroz.substack.com/p/rays-shane...
June 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Who are the best pitching development orgs in MLB? 🤔

New video just dropped where I rummage through non-public aggregated MiLB data to spot trends & attempt to tackle this difficult question.

Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/EXCZRYFYJSA
June 12, 2025 at 8:07 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Catch probability has a pretty big flaw that skews our public perception of the statistic.

For one, balls given <50% probability are routinely underestimated in their difficulty (aka... they're wrong).

But does it actually matter?

Tease below, full video here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CswV...
June 10, 2025 at 7:43 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
The #Yankees pitching lab has been cooking this year. They've made material adjustments to Max Fried, Fernando Cruz, Carlos Rodon, and the 🐐, Ryan Yarbrough.

New video just dropped on their dominance in the realm of seam effects. 👀

Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/0Xn7YReqSPo
June 5, 2025 at 9:18 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
🚨Collab video with @kileymcd.bsky.social 🚨

We dug into 10 advanced data standouts from the 2025 minor league season so far.

Includes data on... Jac Caglianone 👀, Zyhir Hope, Payton Tolle, Ryan Sloan, Luke Dickerson, Trey Yesavage, & more

Tease below, full vid: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKwn...
May 29, 2025 at 8:43 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Dove into Statcast's new swing metrics!

Found some deep point-of-contact mashers, vertical bat angle adjusters, and a whole bunch more. 👀

Tease below, full vid here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv1S...
May 22, 2025 at 9:07 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Here's the #Yankees orientation change on Max Fried's sinker. Two-seam last year to one-seam spin this year.

xSLG down 50 pts, whiffs up ~50%.

Big difference is in the vertical break. Lower number = more drop...

2024: 8.5" vertical break ➡️ 2025: 4.7" vertical break
May 16, 2025 at 4:30 PM
lancebroz.bsky.social
Dove into the world of biomechanics to consider whether lower arm angles will keep pitchers healthier.

Challenging topic! I learned a lot and got some great info from a bunch of MLB sources. ⚾️

Tease below! Full video: youtu.be/-_1RF1ztJTI
May 2, 2025 at 7:54 PM