Kevin Morris
@kevintmorris.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow and Voting Policy Scholar at @BrennanCenter.org. Democracy is good, prisons are bad. Usually on a bike, beach, or backpacking trip.
kevintmorris.com
Posts regularly deleted using https://bsky.jazco.dev/cleanup.
kevintmorris.com
Posts regularly deleted using https://bsky.jazco.dev/cleanup.
I'm sorry, what?
November 27, 2025 at 12:47 AM
I'm sorry, what?
Spent a good chunk of the afternoon hand-coding the missing precincts in Georgia; some 98% of votes are now matched to precinct-shapefiles, making calculating racial demographics easier.
The upshot doesn't change: In heavily White, Democratic parts of GA, the White D cand outran the Black D cand
The upshot doesn't change: In heavily White, Democratic parts of GA, the White D cand outran the Black D cand
November 25, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Spent a good chunk of the afternoon hand-coding the missing precincts in Georgia; some 98% of votes are now matched to precinct-shapefiles, making calculating racial demographics easier.
The upshot doesn't change: In heavily White, Democratic parts of GA, the White D cand outran the Black D cand
The upshot doesn't change: In heavily White, Democratic parts of GA, the White D cand outran the Black D cand
Let the crust making commence!
November 25, 2025 at 12:19 AM
Let the crust making commence!
Popeyes turkey procured
November 24, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Popeyes turkey procured
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
November 24, 2025 at 12:47 AM
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
I talked with @pascalsabino.bsky.social at @boltsmag.org about the ways that the current VRA case could have outsized implications for local representation --- something I've been yelling about on here a lot. This whole piece is worth a read on your Saturday morning
boltsmag.org/voting-right...
boltsmag.org/voting-right...
November 22, 2025 at 5:39 PM
I talked with @pascalsabino.bsky.social at @boltsmag.org about the ways that the current VRA case could have outsized implications for local representation --- something I've been yelling about on here a lot. This whole piece is worth a read on your Saturday morning
boltsmag.org/voting-right...
boltsmag.org/voting-right...
Updated with statewide precinct-level results
November 21, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Updated with statewide precinct-level results
These candidates often ran together, with joint websites (eg, "Vote for both the Republicans running in our district!") and appearances. Hard to believe that voters were systematically distinguishing between these candidates based on platforms or policy stances
November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
These candidates often ran together, with joint websites (eg, "Vote for both the Republicans running in our district!") and appearances. Hard to believe that voters were systematically distinguishing between these candidates based on platforms or policy stances
In NJ, each assembly dist is repped by 2 people. This month, in 13 cases, a White Dem ran alongside a Black Dem (or White Rep and Black Rep) in a given district. White candidates regularly out-performed their Black copartisan candidates in whiter areas:
November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
In NJ, each assembly dist is repped by 2 people. This month, in 13 cases, a White Dem ran alongside a Black Dem (or White Rep and Black Rep) in a given district. White candidates regularly out-performed their Black copartisan candidates in whiter areas:
Not just a partisan story: The relationship sticks around when we look only at counties Trump won in 2024
November 19, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Not just a partisan story: The relationship sticks around when we look only at counties Trump won in 2024
Now on to VA, where the White Republican attorney general received more votes, and a higher vote share, in EVERY SINGLE COUNTY than the Black Republican gubernatorial candidate.
He did especially relatively well in... You guessed it, whiter counties (other things equal).
He did especially relatively well in... You guessed it, whiter counties (other things equal).
November 19, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Now on to VA, where the White Republican attorney general received more votes, and a higher vote share, in EVERY SINGLE COUNTY than the Black Republican gubernatorial candidate.
He did especially relatively well in... You guessed it, whiter counties (other things equal).
He did especially relatively well in... You guessed it, whiter counties (other things equal).
Opinion written by a Trump-appointed judge
November 18, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Opinion written by a Trump-appointed judge
This is an important paper at @apsrjournal.bsky.social. It's not exactly surprising that racism undermines effective representation, but it is well and carefully done. Congrats to @markarianga.bsky.social, @jacobhacker.bsky.social, @maclockhart.bsky.social, and Hajnal
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
November 18, 2025 at 2:32 PM
This is an important paper at @apsrjournal.bsky.social. It's not exactly surprising that racism undermines effective representation, but it is well and carefully done. Congrats to @markarianga.bsky.social, @jacobhacker.bsky.social, @maclockhart.bsky.social, and Hajnal
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
What perfect album came out the year you turned 16?
November 17, 2025 at 1:10 AM
What perfect album came out the year you turned 16?
Our new piece seems to have brought out a lot of Very Normal People on Facebook
November 16, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Our new piece seems to have brought out a lot of Very Normal People on Facebook
And many of these Latino precincts (especially in Passaic) ended up in 2025 to the left of where they were in 2020
(reposting because of a typo in the original figure titles)
(reposting because of a typo in the original figure titles)
November 15, 2025 at 6:50 PM
And many of these Latino precincts (especially in Passaic) ended up in 2025 to the left of where they were in 2020
(reposting because of a typo in the original figure titles)
(reposting because of a typo in the original figure titles)
What they are seeing at the town-level mirrors what we're seeing at the precinct-level in two of the swingiest counties (Passaic and Bergen). Important to note, though, that share Latino explains the 2024--2025 shifts better than the 2020--2024 ones
November 15, 2025 at 6:27 PM
What they are seeing at the town-level mirrors what we're seeing at the precinct-level in two of the swingiest counties (Passaic and Bergen). Important to note, though, that share Latino explains the 2024--2025 shifts better than the 2020--2024 ones
Evidence of racial polarization in Georgia last week. In one race, a White D ran against a Black R; the inverse was true in the other. So, where did the White D over-perform the Black D? In whiter areas.
November 14, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Evidence of racial polarization in Georgia last week. In one race, a White D ran against a Black R; the inverse was true in the other. So, where did the White D over-perform the Black D? In whiter areas.
On the other hand, the turnout effects are concentrated in the most heavily Democrat-leaning neighborhoods. In other words, mass shootings seem to be mobilizing where citizens are already "bought into" the D frame that the government should do more to counter extreme gun violence
November 12, 2025 at 7:04 PM
On the other hand, the turnout effects are concentrated in the most heavily Democrat-leaning neighborhoods. In other words, mass shootings seem to be mobilizing where citizens are already "bought into" the D frame that the government should do more to counter extreme gun violence
Of course, knowing _that_ turnout increases doesn't tell us whether it changes _how_ people vote. To answer this, we use VEST data to test whether mass shootings impacted the share of votes a neighborhood (precinct) gave to the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020. The answer? No.
November 12, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Of course, knowing _that_ turnout increases doesn't tell us whether it changes _how_ people vote. To answer this, we use VEST data to test whether mass shootings impacted the share of votes a neighborhood (precinct) gave to the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020. The answer? No.
We build on great work by others in the space (@tylerreny.bsky.social, @johnholbein1.bsky.social, @hjghassell.bsky.social... the list goes on) but use neighborhood-level data. We show that mass shootings increase turnout dramatically at the very local level, but the effect goes away by 5-10 miles
November 12, 2025 at 7:04 PM
We build on great work by others in the space (@tylerreny.bsky.social, @johnholbein1.bsky.social, @hjghassell.bsky.social... the list goes on) but use neighborhood-level data. We show that mass shootings increase turnout dramatically at the very local level, but the effect goes away by 5-10 miles
New today at Science Advances from @kshoub.bsky.social and me. We revisit the question of whether a local tragedy (mass shooting) influences voter behavior. They do, at least at the local level, with some important caveats and implications for policy. Short thread...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
November 12, 2025 at 7:04 PM
New today at Science Advances from @kshoub.bsky.social and me. We revisit the question of whether a local tragedy (mass shooting) influences voter behavior. They do, at least at the local level, with some important caveats and implications for policy. Short thread...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Time to get off the computer. Especially since I only submitted one proposal.
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November 11, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Time to get off the computer. Especially since I only submitted one proposal.
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This flight straight up does not exist. Alaska does not have a flight with this number, or fly this route at this time.
But ask me how many times I've clicked on it.
But ask me how many times I've clicked on it.
November 11, 2025 at 6:08 PM
This flight straight up does not exist. Alaska does not have a flight with this number, or fly this route at this time.
But ask me how many times I've clicked on it.
But ask me how many times I've clicked on it.
A lot of news today, but don't miss the two big threats-to-democracy ones:
1. SCOTUS will decide whether states can count ballots post marked by, but received after, election day. Given vote-mode polarization in recent years, this could matter a lot
1. SCOTUS will decide whether states can count ballots post marked by, but received after, election day. Given vote-mode polarization in recent years, this could matter a lot
November 10, 2025 at 11:49 PM
A lot of news today, but don't miss the two big threats-to-democracy ones:
1. SCOTUS will decide whether states can count ballots post marked by, but received after, election day. Given vote-mode polarization in recent years, this could matter a lot
1. SCOTUS will decide whether states can count ballots post marked by, but received after, election day. Given vote-mode polarization in recent years, this could matter a lot