Jake Werner
@jwdwerner.bsky.social
Historian, director for East Asia @quincyinst.bsky.social, cofounder Justice Is Global. Previously @gdp-center.bsky.social, University of Chicago. Writing on US–China relations and global capitalism.
we can build a new foundation to defuse the sense of threat on both sides, making it possible to return to healthy forms of both competition and cooperation.
quincyinst.org/research/com...
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quincyinst.org/research/com...
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Competition Versus Exclusion in U.S.–China Relations: A Choice Between Stability and Conflict
Washington’s debate on China loses the crucial distinction between “competition” — a kind of connection with the potential to be carried on in healthy ways — and “exclusion,” an attempt to sever conne...
quincyinst.org
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
we can build a new foundation to defuse the sense of threat on both sides, making it possible to return to healthy forms of both competition and cooperation.
quincyinst.org/research/com...
/20
quincyinst.org/research/com...
/20
We’ve finally reached an inflection point, where Beijing is powerful and confident enough to impose real pain on the US.
We can go back and forth hitting each other in the face until things spin out of control.
Or …
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We can go back and forth hitting each other in the face until things spin out of control.
Or …
19/
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
We’ve finally reached an inflection point, where Beijing is powerful and confident enough to impose real pain on the US.
We can go back and forth hitting each other in the face until things spin out of control.
Or …
19/
We can go back and forth hitting each other in the face until things spin out of control.
Or …
19/
Let’s not nourish illusions that Beijing would do nothing in the face of escalating attempts to cut China out of global economic growth if only we were smart about it.
But Trump’s silly claim that Busan was a victory just as surely keeps us from facing our real situation.
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But Trump’s silly claim that Busan was a victory just as surely keeps us from facing our real situation.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Let’s not nourish illusions that Beijing would do nothing in the face of escalating attempts to cut China out of global economic growth if only we were smart about it.
But Trump’s silly claim that Busan was a victory just as surely keeps us from facing our real situation.
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But Trump’s silly claim that Busan was a victory just as surely keeps us from facing our real situation.
18/
Rush invokes the logic that has taken us into every violent great power conflict.
Toward the other side: The only thing they understand is force. And they’ll surrender if only we keep escalating our coercion.
To our side: What are you, chicken??
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www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...
Toward the other side: The only thing they understand is force. And they’ll surrender if only we keep escalating our coercion.
To our side: What are you, chicken??
17/
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Rush invokes the logic that has taken us into every violent great power conflict.
Toward the other side: The only thing they understand is force. And they’ll surrender if only we keep escalating our coercion.
To our side: What are you, chicken??
17/
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...
Toward the other side: The only thing they understand is force. And they’ll surrender if only we keep escalating our coercion.
To our side: What are you, chicken??
17/
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...
Rush says “Beijing may feel emboldened” to use in offensive ways the powers the US forced on it, but he offers no reason to think so.
(Unfounded fear of what China might do has been a central—deeply unhealthy—driver of US efforts to limit and exclude China this whole time.)
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(Unfounded fear of what China might do has been a central—deeply unhealthy—driver of US efforts to limit and exclude China this whole time.)
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Rush says “Beijing may feel emboldened” to use in offensive ways the powers the US forced on it, but he offers no reason to think so.
(Unfounded fear of what China might do has been a central—deeply unhealthy—driver of US efforts to limit and exclude China this whole time.)
16/
(Unfounded fear of what China might do has been a central—deeply unhealthy—driver of US efforts to limit and exclude China this whole time.)
16/
Throughout this whole process of intensifying economic conflict, Beijing has acted in proportionate terms to the US.
It has weaponized its economic relations in a defensive manner, to hold the US in check rather than to impose new demands.
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It has weaponized its economic relations in a defensive manner, to hold the US in check rather than to impose new demands.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Throughout this whole process of intensifying economic conflict, Beijing has acted in proportionate terms to the US.
It has weaponized its economic relations in a defensive manner, to hold the US in check rather than to impose new demands.
15/
It has weaponized its economic relations in a defensive manner, to hold the US in check rather than to impose new demands.
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This year, Beijing brought its full power to bear.
The question is not if it would have done the same against Harris. It’s whether a Harris admin—more wedded to natsec absolutism—would have shown Trump’s flexibility or instead driven the conflict to a disastrous rupture.
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The question is not if it would have done the same against Harris. It’s whether a Harris admin—more wedded to natsec absolutism—would have shown Trump’s flexibility or instead driven the conflict to a disastrous rupture.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
This year, Beijing brought its full power to bear.
The question is not if it would have done the same against Harris. It’s whether a Harris admin—more wedded to natsec absolutism—would have shown Trump’s flexibility or instead driven the conflict to a disastrous rupture.
14/
The question is not if it would have done the same against Harris. It’s whether a Harris admin—more wedded to natsec absolutism—would have shown Trump’s flexibility or instead driven the conflict to a disastrous rupture.
14/
It was meant as a rebuke to Biden for ignoring Xi’s warning at Lima on China’s red lines and as a message to the incoming Trump admin.
But its timing was determined by when the Chinese system of economic retaliation was ready to unleash, not who was in the White House.
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But its timing was determined by when the Chinese system of economic retaliation was ready to unleash, not who was in the White House.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
It was meant as a rebuke to Biden for ignoring Xi’s warning at Lima on China’s red lines and as a message to the incoming Trump admin.
But its timing was determined by when the Chinese system of economic retaliation was ready to unleash, not who was in the White House.
13/
But its timing was determined by when the Chinese system of economic retaliation was ready to unleash, not who was in the White House.
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The immediate impact was limited. But it represented a highly significant qualitative change in China’s retaliatory measures.
For the first time, Beijing showed the capacity and willingness to shut down US production the way the US sought to shut down Chinese production.
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For the first time, Beijing showed the capacity and willingness to shut down US production the way the US sought to shut down Chinese production.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
The immediate impact was limited. But it represented a highly significant qualitative change in China’s retaliatory measures.
For the first time, Beijing showed the capacity and willingness to shut down US production the way the US sought to shut down Chinese production.
12/
For the first time, Beijing showed the capacity and willingness to shut down US production the way the US sought to shut down Chinese production.
12/
China responded immediately, for the first time imposing an outright ban on export of a handful of rare earth elements to the US as well as applying extraterritorial restrictions for the first time.
www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/w...
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www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/w...
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China Bans Rare Mineral Exports to the U.S.
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
China responded immediately, for the first time imposing an outright ban on export of a handful of rare earth elements to the US as well as applying extraterritorial restrictions for the first time.
www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/w...
11/
www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/w...
11/
Shortly after the final Xi–Biden meeting, when China defined economic attacks as crossing one of its few red lines, a heedless Biden admin went ahead with another dramatic expansion of its blockade on advanced semiconductors.
www.bis.gov/press-releas...
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www.bis.gov/press-releas...
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Lock
www.bis.gov
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Shortly after the final Xi–Biden meeting, when China defined economic attacks as crossing one of its few red lines, a heedless Biden admin went ahead with another dramatic expansion of its blockade on advanced semiconductors.
www.bis.gov/press-releas...
10/
www.bis.gov/press-releas...
10/
In fact, the Chinese leadership had no intention of submitting to US control.
But it needed time to put in place the institutional and legal foundations to exercise the potential power China enjoys in global supply chains.
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But it needed time to put in place the institutional and legal foundations to exercise the potential power China enjoys in global supply chains.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
In fact, the Chinese leadership had no intention of submitting to US control.
But it needed time to put in place the institutional and legal foundations to exercise the potential power China enjoys in global supply chains.
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But it needed time to put in place the institutional and legal foundations to exercise the potential power China enjoys in global supply chains.
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The Biden admin’s campaign to prevent advanced technology in China caught Beijing flat-footed in 2022.
The admin read this as a free hand to dictate the course of Chinese economic development.
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The admin read this as a free hand to dictate the course of Chinese economic development.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
The Biden admin’s campaign to prevent advanced technology in China caught Beijing flat-footed in 2022.
The admin read this as a free hand to dictate the course of Chinese economic development.
8/
The admin read this as a free hand to dictate the course of Chinese economic development.
8/
Yet as so often in the past, US leaders dismissed the warnings and escalated further.
As its signaling intensified, China was methodically assembling a system to weaponize economic relations that mirrored what the US built since 2001 and that Biden turned directly on China.
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As its signaling intensified, China was methodically assembling a system to weaponize economic relations that mirrored what the US built since 2001 and that Biden turned directly on China.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Yet as so often in the past, US leaders dismissed the warnings and escalated further.
As its signaling intensified, China was methodically assembling a system to weaponize economic relations that mirrored what the US built since 2001 and that Biden turned directly on China.
7/
As its signaling intensified, China was methodically assembling a system to weaponize economic relations that mirrored what the US built since 2001 and that Biden turned directly on China.
7/
These statements rise steadily from an effort at persuasion to increasingly threatening language to finally stating flatly that US economic attacks violate the state’s fundamental interests—right up there with Taiwan and regime security.
The signaling was not subtle!
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The signaling was not subtle!
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
These statements rise steadily from an effort at persuasion to increasingly threatening language to finally stating flatly that US economic attacks violate the state’s fundamental interests—right up there with Taiwan and regime security.
The signaling was not subtle!
6/
The signaling was not subtle!
6/
Consider readouts from Xi–Biden calls/meetings.
2022: US economic attacks hurt everyone
2023: they “severely damage China’s legitimate interests”
2024.04: if attacks continue, “we will not sit quietly by”
2024.11 the right to development is one of China’s four red lines
5/
2022: US economic attacks hurt everyone
2023: they “severely damage China’s legitimate interests”
2024.04: if attacks continue, “we will not sit quietly by”
2024.11 the right to development is one of China’s four red lines
5/
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Consider readouts from Xi–Biden calls/meetings.
2022: US economic attacks hurt everyone
2023: they “severely damage China’s legitimate interests”
2024.04: if attacks continue, “we will not sit quietly by”
2024.11 the right to development is one of China’s four red lines
5/
2022: US economic attacks hurt everyone
2023: they “severely damage China’s legitimate interests”
2024.04: if attacks continue, “we will not sit quietly by”
2024.11 the right to development is one of China’s four red lines
5/
China’s response to Harris would have been slower, but its countermeasures would have soon started imposing serious damage on US production.
We know this because across 2024 China signaled with increasing urgency that it was losing patience with US economic attacks.
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We know this because across 2024 China signaled with increasing urgency that it was losing patience with US economic attacks.
4/
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
China’s response to Harris would have been slower, but its countermeasures would have soon started imposing serious damage on US production.
We know this because across 2024 China signaled with increasing urgency that it was losing patience with US economic attacks.
4/
We know this because across 2024 China signaled with increasing urgency that it was losing patience with US economic attacks.
4/
But would China have declined to retaliate against US economic attacks if the pain came more slowly?
While Trump’s actions against China were undoubtedly ill-considered, a Harris admin would have continued Biden policy to constrain Chinese markets and technological advance.
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While Trump’s actions against China were undoubtedly ill-considered, a Harris admin would have continued Biden policy to constrain Chinese markets and technological advance.
3/
November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
But would China have declined to retaliate against US economic attacks if the pain came more slowly?
While Trump’s actions against China were undoubtedly ill-considered, a Harris admin would have continued Biden policy to constrain Chinese markets and technological advance.
3/
While Trump’s actions against China were undoubtedly ill-considered, a Harris admin would have continued Biden policy to constrain Chinese markets and technological advance.
3/
I’ve characterized Busan as the moment the US stopped just talking about China as a peer (rhetoric meant to exert natsec aims over other priorities and to generate public consent for spiraling military spending) and began actually treating China as a peer power.
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November 25, 2025 at 5:37 PM
I’ve characterized Busan as the moment the US stopped just talking about China as a peer (rhetoric meant to exert natsec aims over other priorities and to generate public consent for spiraling military spending) and began actually treating China as a peer power.
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2/
Though DC portrayals of China’s aims were far off the mark, they squarely describe Trump’s approach.
Here’s my take right before Liberation Day. The question—still in play—is whether Trump accepts the DC portrayal of China and so miscalculates how to relate to Xi.
www.thenation.com/article/worl...
Here’s my take right before Liberation Day. The question—still in play—is whether Trump accepts the DC portrayal of China and so miscalculates how to relate to Xi.
www.thenation.com/article/worl...
November 21, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Though DC portrayals of China’s aims were far off the mark, they squarely describe Trump’s approach.
Here’s my take right before Liberation Day. The question—still in play—is whether Trump accepts the DC portrayal of China and so miscalculates how to relate to Xi.
www.thenation.com/article/worl...
Here’s my take right before Liberation Day. The question—still in play—is whether Trump accepts the DC portrayal of China and so miscalculates how to relate to Xi.
www.thenation.com/article/worl...
Reposted by Jake Werner
One of the themes of our new police state is the sheer lack of professionalism. They can't do the basics, and when challenged, double down. A dysfunctional organizational culture deeply suspicious of the society they are tasked with controlling.
bsky.app/profile/radl...
bsky.app/profile/radl...
They misidentified the intern. The judge told them they had misidentified the intern. But instead of double checking, they took that as an affront to their authority. So they surrounded the judge's car and threatened to smash the windows to get to the intern.
They had misidentified the intern.
They had misidentified the intern.
The part where they threatened to break a judge’s car windows should be a bigger story … they feel comfortable treating judges this way, which means they are being told that they can do literally anything to nearly everyone
November 21, 2025 at 5:13 PM
One of the themes of our new police state is the sheer lack of professionalism. They can't do the basics, and when challenged, double down. A dysfunctional organizational culture deeply suspicious of the society they are tasked with controlling.
bsky.app/profile/radl...
bsky.app/profile/radl...