Jim Barrineau
@jwb12.bsky.social
Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here:
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
Tech is wobbling, and there are clear alternatives for equity exposure: the US ex-tech as represented here by two specific value strategies, or international investing. The performance gap is starting to widen.
December 16, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Tech is wobbling, and there are clear alternatives for equity exposure: the US ex-tech as represented here by two specific value strategies, or international investing. The performance gap is starting to widen.
With the dollar softer, international investing should be a relative out-performer. But after a spectacular run this year from EM, international developed seems like a better choice for non-US exposure.
December 13, 2025 at 2:45 PM
With the dollar softer, international investing should be a relative out-performer. But after a spectacular run this year from EM, international developed seems like a better choice for non-US exposure.
Tech is worst performing sector over the past month--by a pretty decent margin.
December 12, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Tech is worst performing sector over the past month--by a pretty decent margin.
Dollar sliding once again. Though odds for a rate cut at the next meeting didn't move materially after this week's cut, the actions of the dollar--and stocks--suggests that markets anticipate more easy policies. Could this be in anticipation of the next Fed chair?
December 12, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Dollar sliding once again. Though odds for a rate cut at the next meeting didn't move materially after this week's cut, the actions of the dollar--and stocks--suggests that markets anticipate more easy policies. Could this be in anticipation of the next Fed chair?
This is the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index--readings below zero=loose conditions. We are very near 5-year levels of looseness.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
December 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM
This is the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index--readings below zero=loose conditions. We are very near 5-year levels of looseness.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
Neither AI fever dreams, nor robot fantasies, nor robotaxi lies seem to be able to move TSLA stock above roughly the $460-ish level. Perhaps there IS a price where even the Musk cult finds it hard to push the buy button...
December 10, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Neither AI fever dreams, nor robot fantasies, nor robotaxi lies seem to be able to move TSLA stock above roughly the $460-ish level. Perhaps there IS a price where even the Musk cult finds it hard to push the buy button...
Howard Marks nails the problem with issuing long term debt to fund AI data center construction. Once big tech, and others have to turn to debt to fund the buildout instead of doing it from cash flow, the entire AI edifice becomes very shaky.
December 10, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Howard Marks nails the problem with issuing long term debt to fund AI data center construction. Once big tech, and others have to turn to debt to fund the buildout instead of doing it from cash flow, the entire AI edifice becomes very shaky.
The dollar's gentle decline continues as a rate cut this week seems certain. With a new Fed chair waiting in the wings who will be tasked to do the bidding of the president its tough to see the dollar rallying much from here. Take away AI spending, and the economy seems very soft.
December 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The dollar's gentle decline continues as a rate cut this week seems certain. With a new Fed chair waiting in the wings who will be tasked to do the bidding of the president its tough to see the dollar rallying much from here. Take away AI spending, and the economy seems very soft.
The dispersion in performance among funds that target "value" or "quality" is quite large. Pure "quality" has under-performed; a cash flow focus has also under-performed (COWZ) though it beat the S&P over past month. And Ishares VLUE is killing it in this space. "Cheap" is often a tough concept.
December 1, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The dispersion in performance among funds that target "value" or "quality" is quite large. Pure "quality" has under-performed; a cash flow focus has also under-performed (COWZ) though it beat the S&P over past month. And Ishares VLUE is killing it in this space. "Cheap" is often a tough concept.
Kudos to Bridgewater, with one of first hedge fund products translated into ETF form, ALLW. The fund is a global unconstrained fund. Probably best measured against a global 60/40 like AOR, which is has out-performed since inception by about 180bps. So why pay 2 and 20 for the strategy now?
November 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Kudos to Bridgewater, with one of first hedge fund products translated into ETF form, ALLW. The fund is a global unconstrained fund. Probably best measured against a global 60/40 like AOR, which is has out-performed since inception by about 180bps. So why pay 2 and 20 for the strategy now?
After out-performing this year, emerging market equities have lagged the big bounce to end November and under-performed for the month. Given their run-up, they might be less sensitive to a softer dollar than international developed, and less positively affected by another Fed rate cut than the US.
November 29, 2025 at 3:29 PM
After out-performing this year, emerging market equities have lagged the big bounce to end November and under-performed for the month. Given their run-up, they might be less sensitive to a softer dollar than international developed, and less positively affected by another Fed rate cut than the US.
South Korean equities, a major driver in EM's outsized returns this year, looks to have peaked in November after an incredible run, making the entire asset class less attractive going forward than developed international for us.
November 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM
South Korean equities, a major driver in EM's outsized returns this year, looks to have peaked in November after an incredible run, making the entire asset class less attractive going forward than developed international for us.
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
November 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
Dollar is looking toppy here. Likely a good time for more international equity exposure.
November 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Dollar is looking toppy here. Likely a good time for more international equity exposure.
Now that the market has seemingly decided we are a lock for a rate cut in December, its interesting that January odds for another rate cut are quite low as shown here, suggesting that a rally based on rate cuts alone probably isn't going to get too extended.
November 25, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Now that the market has seemingly decided we are a lock for a rate cut in December, its interesting that January odds for another rate cut are quite low as shown here, suggesting that a rally based on rate cuts alone probably isn't going to get too extended.
Bond market has responded to recent Fed member comments, and we are at a 2/3 probability of a rate cut, so hard to see how Powell pushes against this pricing. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast sees a 4.2% GDP print for Q3, tough to see a dovish message to accompany the actual cut.
November 24, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Bond market has responded to recent Fed member comments, and we are at a 2/3 probability of a rate cut, so hard to see how Powell pushes against this pricing. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast sees a 4.2% GDP print for Q3, tough to see a dovish message to accompany the actual cut.
The dollar is at six month highs. In those six months the S&P has out-performed international developed EFA by about 450 basis points.
November 23, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The dollar is at six month highs. In those six months the S&P has out-performed international developed EFA by about 450 basis points.
EM equities faltering this month on a relative basis versus S&P on the back of continued dollar strength. EM had doubled S&P performance over the previous 3 months, but that super hot streak seems over for now.
November 23, 2025 at 4:30 PM
EM equities faltering this month on a relative basis versus S&P on the back of continued dollar strength. EM had doubled S&P performance over the previous 3 months, but that super hot streak seems over for now.
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
November 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM
This chart is from a nice Substack by Phil Bak:
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
We are an economy of financial asset inflation. If you own financial assets, you are golden. If you do not, you are dead in the water. It's not much more complicated than that.
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
November 17, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Rate cut odds for December have essentially been cut in half in the past month. Over that period, the return on the Barclays Bond Aggregate has been negative 0.29%. We'll have to see if the narrative changes with the coming deluge of data.
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
November 17, 2025 at 1:00 PM
High yield spreads have bottomed and started to rise, representing a tightening of financial conditions that will be a headwind to risk assets.
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
November 10, 2025 at 9:26 PM
If tech is set to correct, it is logical that value strategies should do better. Two funds we quite like in this space--VLUE for domestic value and DFIV for international--have started to outperform their broad market peers.
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
November 7, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Consumer sentiment--quite the trend.
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
November 5, 2025 at 9:16 PM
The Fed meeting marked the near-term peak for bonds, which have steadily retreated in price as December rate cut hopes faded. Tough to see a catalyst here that would turn this around. Higher yields not going to help equity risk appetite in general.
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?
November 5, 2025 at 2:15 PM
It has been a while since we had financial conditions tightening rather than loosening (readings below zero are loosening for the Chicago Fed index). One reading does not make a treng, but a stronger dollar and higher corporate bond spreads are early warning signals. Maybe BTC telling us the same?