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Jim Barrineau

@jwb12.bsky.social

590 followers 240 following 1K posts

Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here: www.barrineau.substack.com Ex-USN, ex-CIA

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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 1h

Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down, Officials Say www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/u...
As an ex-Naval officer, I would expect more resignations from senior officers involved who have their 20 years in. As a matter of honor, I hope they all are considering it.

Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down, Officials Say

www.nytimes.com

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 11h

Worst president ever.
Best grifter ever.

on.ft.com/4nYdvPy

How the Trump companies made $1bn from crypto

The president and his family have built a rapidly growing digital assets empire which has been fuelled by the administration’s industry-friendly policies

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 1d

www.axios.com/2025/10/15/u...

Says the man representing the country that changes its tariff structure multiple times a week....

Bessent says China "can't be trusted" as trade fight escalates

The Trump administration is signaling a new flare in the U.S.-China trade war.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 1d

This statement ensures that financial markets will do much more damage pre-election; even if Milei wins he will thus have a bigger hole to dig out of. Argentina is a pure gamble to invest in right now, it's irrational to believe you can forecast an outcome.

Donald Trump says US support for Argentina is ‘gone’ if Javier Milei suffers election losses

US president suggests $20bn swap line is contingent on libertarian’s victory in midterm elections

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 1d

Xi is absolutely right. There will be a humiliating climbdown by Trump, it is just a question of when and what form it will take. One country has a strategy, one country changes policy impulsively via social media. Guess who wins.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...

China, Betting It Can Win a Trade War, Is Playing Hardball With Trump

Chinese leader Xi Jinping thinks the president will fold before launching new tariffs that would roil markets.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 1d

We all know Trump is destroying science, education, energy production deemed "green" and hurtling the US backwards--and here are some sobering charts to prove it from Paul Krugman.

open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

China Has Overtaken America

And Trump’s policies guarantee that we will never catch up

open.substack.com

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 1d

Bitcoin has been acting as neither a proxy for abundant financial liquidity, nor a store of value (see GLD), nor as a safe haven.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

Truly a worthy use of the trillion or so dollars OpenAI is raising/spending/borrowing/pretending exists.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

So major tech is going to spend $1 trillion on data centers to upgrade porn?

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

Trump is going to push this trade war button one too many times and we are going to get a proper flush out.
Clearly China thinks it is in the drivers seat and if market goes down 5% it will be proven right.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

I guess 100% tariffs on China is exempt from being an economically hostile act?

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

It’s murder.
Sanctioned by the guy begging for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

After Powell speech:
I don't think the markets have EVER priced in two consecutive rate cuts with near 100% conviction with core inflation at 3% and growth above 3.5%. It's objectively crazy.

I guess if we never get economic data again we can officially forget inflation numbers actually exist....

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 2d

Absolute classic FT headline....the dumb money that is up about 50% in two and a half years is the problem here!!

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 4d

Literally standing on the side of the angels.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 4d

Tariffs continue to wreak havoc. The idea that we should be surprised tariffs have not done a lot of damage will soon be discarded. The macro econ figures are massively distorted by AI-related spending: under the hood--autos, agriculture, and much more the rot is only starting.

‘This is existential’: Donald Trump’s tariffs drive US car sector into turmoil

Michigan’s ‘Big Three’ carmakers forecast a combined $7bn tariff-related hit to earnings in 2025

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 4d

And serves as an encouragement to take irresponsible risks

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 5d

I keep seeing articles about investors shifting money to international assets, it's a long-term trend etc etc. But since the third week in April the S&P has steadily out-performed international developed stocks.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 6d

I would like to invite you to pay well over 100X earnings for the future king of self-driving...if you can overlook the periodic running of red lights that might kill you or someone else...

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 6d

The US is two economies--the top 20% are responsible for 51% of consumer spending. If you are in that cohort, everything is fine. If you are outside, the noose of slowly rising prices, expensive cars, houses, health and home insurance, electricity prices is tightening

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 6d

Junk bond rally stalls. With about an 80% chance for two rate cuts in the next two meetings priced, there is not a lot of room for bonds to rally from here. Tight credit spreads are another reason that high yield debt seems particularly unattractive now.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 6d

Steep dollar fall seems to be over for now, creating a headwind for international assets versus USD heading into year-end.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 6d

From Torsten Slok at Apollo. Could not agree more. Focus on real return--that skimpy number is likely contributing to gold's supercharged rally.

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 7d

If we take out every small boat in the Caribbean we are going to save like 900 million American lives!!!(MAGA math)

Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 7d

It falls upon the WSJ to finally show some reality-based data that demonstrates Trump and Prime Minister Miller are lying daily about Portland protests.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

What’s Really Going On in Portland, According to Police Reports

Protests outside an ICE facility were dwindling in size and at times ”low energy” in the days and weeks before President Trump called in troops, according to official law-enforcement logs.