Jim Barrineau
@jwb12.bsky.social
Foundation CIO. Consultant for RIAs. 25 years Wall Street, portfolio manager ($6B AUM at peak) and strategist. Follow our dynamic beta approach here:
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
www.barrineau.substack.com
Ex-USN, ex-CIA
With the dollar softer, international investing should be a relative out-performer. But after a spectacular run this year from EM, international developed seems like a better choice for non-US exposure.
December 13, 2025 at 2:45 PM
With the dollar softer, international investing should be a relative out-performer. But after a spectacular run this year from EM, international developed seems like a better choice for non-US exposure.
To position this number of assets in the region for an extended time will likely cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Best case, we temporarily interdict some drug routes that will re-start when Trump loses interest. More likely, regional chaos with high costs.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
U.S. Pours More Firepower Into the Caribbean as Trump Ramps Up Threats
The American leader now has an array of options for Venezuela’s Maduro, including land strikes and electronic warfare.
www.wsj.com
December 13, 2025 at 1:04 PM
To position this number of assets in the region for an extended time will likely cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Best case, we temporarily interdict some drug routes that will re-start when Trump loses interest. More likely, regional chaos with high costs.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
Big tech's capture of the Trump administration means we all must believe wild spending on AI is essential for the future. If you take away that Silicon Valley trope, policy might look like China: progress on multiple tech & manufacturing fronts.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Could America win the AI race but lose the war?
The US has gone all-in on artificial intelligence. But the idea of an end-of-times battle with China over tomorrow’s key technology is part delusion, part lobbying tool for Silicon Valley
giftarticle.ft.com
December 13, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Big tech's capture of the Trump administration means we all must believe wild spending on AI is essential for the future. If you take away that Silicon Valley trope, policy might look like China: progress on multiple tech & manufacturing fronts.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Tech is worst performing sector over the past month--by a pretty decent margin.
December 12, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Tech is worst performing sector over the past month--by a pretty decent margin.
Dollar sliding once again. Though odds for a rate cut at the next meeting didn't move materially after this week's cut, the actions of the dollar--and stocks--suggests that markets anticipate more easy policies. Could this be in anticipation of the next Fed chair?
December 12, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Dollar sliding once again. Though odds for a rate cut at the next meeting didn't move materially after this week's cut, the actions of the dollar--and stocks--suggests that markets anticipate more easy policies. Could this be in anticipation of the next Fed chair?
Good thing the robots will be here shortly, driving the robocalls, while you chill at home with Grok as your only companion....
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
Exclusive: Tesla US sales drop to nearly 4-year low in November despite launch of cheaper versions
Tesla's U.S. sales dropped to a near four-year low in November, despite the automaker's rollout of new, cheaper versions of its best-selling electric vehicles, estimates from Cox Automotive given excl...
www.reuters.com
December 12, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Good thing the robots will be here shortly, driving the robocalls, while you chill at home with Grok as your only companion....
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
www.reuters.com/business/aut...
This is the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index--readings below zero=loose conditions. We are very near 5-year levels of looseness.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
December 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM
This is the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index--readings below zero=loose conditions. We are very near 5-year levels of looseness.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
If Powell resorts to the tired line that "rates are moderately restrictive" in the presser this afternoon, you are welcome to scream in disbelief along with me.
Neither AI fever dreams, nor robot fantasies, nor robotaxi lies seem to be able to move TSLA stock above roughly the $460-ish level. Perhaps there IS a price where even the Musk cult finds it hard to push the buy button...
December 10, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Neither AI fever dreams, nor robot fantasies, nor robotaxi lies seem to be able to move TSLA stock above roughly the $460-ish level. Perhaps there IS a price where even the Musk cult finds it hard to push the buy button...
Howard Marks nails the problem with issuing long term debt to fund AI data center construction. Once big tech, and others have to turn to debt to fund the buildout instead of doing it from cash flow, the entire AI edifice becomes very shaky.
December 10, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Howard Marks nails the problem with issuing long term debt to fund AI data center construction. Once big tech, and others have to turn to debt to fund the buildout instead of doing it from cash flow, the entire AI edifice becomes very shaky.
China takes advantage of feckless and incoherent US policymaking.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
China’s Manufacturing Is Booming Despite Trump’s Tariffs
U.S. pressure has only cemented its rival’s status as the world’s indispensable factory floor, sending its trade surplus above $1 trillion.
www.wsj.com
December 9, 2025 at 1:10 PM
China takes advantage of feckless and incoherent US policymaking.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
Policy incoherence 101:
1. You want low inflation but you raise tariffs that boost prices.
2. You want to win the AI race, but you cripple new wind and solar power to run data centers.
3. You want strong growth but you round up legal workers by the thousands that reduces your labor supply.
1. You want low inflation but you raise tariffs that boost prices.
2. You want to win the AI race, but you cripple new wind and solar power to run data centers.
3. You want strong growth but you round up legal workers by the thousands that reduces your labor supply.
December 8, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Policy incoherence 101:
1. You want low inflation but you raise tariffs that boost prices.
2. You want to win the AI race, but you cripple new wind and solar power to run data centers.
3. You want strong growth but you round up legal workers by the thousands that reduces your labor supply.
1. You want low inflation but you raise tariffs that boost prices.
2. You want to win the AI race, but you cripple new wind and solar power to run data centers.
3. You want strong growth but you round up legal workers by the thousands that reduces your labor supply.
The dollar's gentle decline continues as a rate cut this week seems certain. With a new Fed chair waiting in the wings who will be tasked to do the bidding of the president its tough to see the dollar rallying much from here. Take away AI spending, and the economy seems very soft.
December 6, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The dollar's gentle decline continues as a rate cut this week seems certain. With a new Fed chair waiting in the wings who will be tasked to do the bidding of the president its tough to see the dollar rallying much from here. Take away AI spending, and the economy seems very soft.
Did Putin help draft this thing?
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
US national security strategy calls for ‘cultivating resistance’ in Europe
Policy document blasts traditional allies while failing to criticise Russia
giftarticle.ft.com
December 5, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Did Putin help draft this thing?
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Hard to improve upon Torsten Slok's list of 5 major market risks next year.
www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-sp...
www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-sp...
The Daily Spark - Apollo Academy
Want it delivered daily to your inbox? Subscribe Now Torsten Slok Apollo Chief Economist See important disclaimers at the bottom...
www.apolloacademy.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Hard to improve upon Torsten Slok's list of 5 major market risks next year.
www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-sp...
www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-sp...
At this point, zero effort is being made to obscure the grift. It's just grabbing government resources with both hands, in every way you can think of.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Donald Trump Jr-backed start-up scores $600mn US federal government deal
President’s son’s fund 1789 Capital poised to capitalise from father’s administration
giftarticle.ft.com
December 3, 2025 at 12:28 PM
At this point, zero effort is being made to obscure the grift. It's just grabbing government resources with both hands, in every way you can think of.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Really like Nick Timiraos, but "credibility with the markets" for Hassett?? Watch long bond yields, gold, dollar. It's not a stretch to see some of that starting--see long bond yield jump yesterday. Hassett will complete the installation of incompetents everywhere.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Why Kevin Hassett Is Winning the Fed Chair Race Before It Has Ended
Interviews for the position are still under way, but Hassett offers what other candidates don’t: the president’s trust and credibility with markets.
www.wsj.com
December 2, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Really like Nick Timiraos, but "credibility with the markets" for Hassett?? Watch long bond yields, gold, dollar. It's not a stretch to see some of that starting--see long bond yield jump yesterday. Hassett will complete the installation of incompetents everywhere.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
The dispersion in performance among funds that target "value" or "quality" is quite large. Pure "quality" has under-performed; a cash flow focus has also under-performed (COWZ) though it beat the S&P over past month. And Ishares VLUE is killing it in this space. "Cheap" is often a tough concept.
December 1, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The dispersion in performance among funds that target "value" or "quality" is quite large. Pure "quality" has under-performed; a cash flow focus has also under-performed (COWZ) though it beat the S&P over past month. And Ishares VLUE is killing it in this space. "Cheap" is often a tough concept.
We remain an 80%/20% economy--the 20% is doing just fine, and responsible for just over 50% of consumer spending.
The 80% is getting battered from all sides.
on.ft.com/4rzWDAY
The 80% is getting battered from all sides.
on.ft.com/4rzWDAY
‘A full-blown crisis’: Americans brace for a surge in healthcare costs
West Virginia is at the epicentre of a looming disaster over rising insurance premiums as affordability concerns soar
on.ft.com
December 1, 2025 at 12:15 PM
We remain an 80%/20% economy--the 20% is doing just fine, and responsible for just over 50% of consumer spending.
The 80% is getting battered from all sides.
on.ft.com/4rzWDAY
The 80% is getting battered from all sides.
on.ft.com/4rzWDAY
Kudos to Bridgewater, with one of first hedge fund products translated into ETF form, ALLW. The fund is a global unconstrained fund. Probably best measured against a global 60/40 like AOR, which is has out-performed since inception by about 180bps. So why pay 2 and 20 for the strategy now?
November 30, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Kudos to Bridgewater, with one of first hedge fund products translated into ETF form, ALLW. The fund is a global unconstrained fund. Probably best measured against a global 60/40 like AOR, which is has out-performed since inception by about 180bps. So why pay 2 and 20 for the strategy now?
Another reason to worry about the AI bubble trade: the data center backlash is well underway, with a likely result being they become more expensive.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...
‘The New Price of Eggs.’ The Political Shocks of Data Centers and Electric Bills
www.nytimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Another reason to worry about the AI bubble trade: the data center backlash is well underway, with a likely result being they become more expensive.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...
Follow a Foundation Investing
A five-minute read: Markets,portfolio notes.
open.substack.com
November 29, 2025 at 7:07 PM
After out-performing this year, emerging market equities have lagged the big bounce to end November and under-performed for the month. Given their run-up, they might be less sensitive to a softer dollar than international developed, and less positively affected by another Fed rate cut than the US.
November 29, 2025 at 3:29 PM
After out-performing this year, emerging market equities have lagged the big bounce to end November and under-performed for the month. Given their run-up, they might be less sensitive to a softer dollar than international developed, and less positively affected by another Fed rate cut than the US.
South Korean equities, a major driver in EM's outsized returns this year, looks to have peaked in November after an incredible run, making the entire asset class less attractive going forward than developed international for us.
November 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM
South Korean equities, a major driver in EM's outsized returns this year, looks to have peaked in November after an incredible run, making the entire asset class less attractive going forward than developed international for us.
Putin is going for a grand slam: Get positioned to take over all of Ukraine, get the US to subsidize the recovery of the Russian economy, sideline Europe. Win win win for him, delivered by the naive, useful idiots now negotiating on behalf of the US.
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
www.wsj.com
November 29, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Putin is going for a grand slam: Get positioned to take over all of Ukraine, get the US to subsidize the recovery of the Russian economy, sideline Europe. Win win win for him, delivered by the naive, useful idiots now negotiating on behalf of the US.
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!
November 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Where does value investing actually work? Internationally. The chart below shows a variety of value approaches versus EFA, the international index ETF--all have soundly beaten the index whether the focus was small caps, cash flow, or dividends. Sharp contrast to tech-centric US!