Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io
Antarctica Director @iccinet.bsky.social | PhD candidate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. #IceSheets, #SeaLevelRise, Earth System #Resilience & #TippingPoints. Focus on #AntarcticIceSheet stability.
🌐 https://juliusgarbe.github.io
🌐 https://juliusgarbe.github.io
“... far too warm” (1.5°C) is indeed correct: we already know that even today‘s warming is sufficient to trigger the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the long term.
The ‘safe limit’ is below +1°C of global warming!
#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRise #IceSheets #WAIS #Collapse #TippingPoints
The ‘safe limit’ is below +1°C of global warming!
#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRise #IceSheets #WAIS #Collapse #TippingPoints
May 20, 2025 at 1:33 PM
“... far too warm” (1.5°C) is indeed correct: we already know that even today‘s warming is sufficient to trigger the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the long term.
The ‘safe limit’ is below +1°C of global warming!
#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRise #IceSheets #WAIS #Collapse #TippingPoints
The ‘safe limit’ is below +1°C of global warming!
#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRise #IceSheets #WAIS #Collapse #TippingPoints
✅ Ja, eine Erwärmung von 3°C bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts ist aktuell nicht auszuschließen.
Aber:
❌ Nein, die Studie sagt nicht, dass Grönland bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts kippen könnte. Es bräuchte viele Jahrtausende(!) dauerhaft erhöhte Temperatur bis Grönland geschmolzen wäre...
[2/3]
Aber:
❌ Nein, die Studie sagt nicht, dass Grönland bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts kippen könnte. Es bräuchte viele Jahrtausende(!) dauerhaft erhöhte Temperatur bis Grönland geschmolzen wäre...
[2/3]
February 27, 2025 at 4:36 PM
✅ Ja, eine Erwärmung von 3°C bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts ist aktuell nicht auszuschließen.
Aber:
❌ Nein, die Studie sagt nicht, dass Grönland bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts kippen könnte. Es bräuchte viele Jahrtausende(!) dauerhaft erhöhte Temperatur bis Grönland geschmolzen wäre...
[2/3]
Aber:
❌ Nein, die Studie sagt nicht, dass Grönland bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts kippen könnte. Es bräuchte viele Jahrtausende(!) dauerhaft erhöhte Temperatur bis Grönland geschmolzen wäre...
[2/3]
Around this time of the year, the peak of the melt season in #Antarctica is usually reached, but this year's spike in the total melt extent is exceptionally impressive! 🥵
(Source: nsidc.org/ice-sheets-t...)
(Source: nsidc.org/ice-sheets-t...)
January 9, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Around this time of the year, the peak of the melt season in #Antarctica is usually reached, but this year's spike in the total melt extent is exceptionally impressive! 🥵
(Source: nsidc.org/ice-sheets-t...)
(Source: nsidc.org/ice-sheets-t...)
How the #Greenland Ice Sheet fared in 2024.
SPOILER: It lost about eighty billion (80,000,000,000) metric tons of ice to the global oceans. Or to put it another way: on average, an ice mass of this size every five days.
SPOILER: It lost about eighty billion (80,000,000,000) metric tons of ice to the global oceans. Or to put it another way: on average, an ice mass of this size every five days.
November 26, 2024 at 6:24 PM
How the #Greenland Ice Sheet fared in 2024.
SPOILER: It lost about eighty billion (80,000,000,000) metric tons of ice to the global oceans. Or to put it another way: on average, an ice mass of this size every five days.
SPOILER: It lost about eighty billion (80,000,000,000) metric tons of ice to the global oceans. Or to put it another way: on average, an ice mass of this size every five days.
”We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice.“ ❄️🧊🌡️💧
Over 50 leading cryosphere scientists warn of vastly higher impacts and costs to the global economy given accelerating losses in the world’s snow and ice regions.
➡️ State of the Cryosphere 2024 report: iccinet.org/statecryo24/
Over 50 leading cryosphere scientists warn of vastly higher impacts and costs to the global economy given accelerating losses in the world’s snow and ice regions.
➡️ State of the Cryosphere 2024 report: iccinet.org/statecryo24/
November 13, 2024 at 7:59 AM
”We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice.“ ❄️🧊🌡️💧
Over 50 leading cryosphere scientists warn of vastly higher impacts and costs to the global economy given accelerating losses in the world’s snow and ice regions.
➡️ State of the Cryosphere 2024 report: iccinet.org/statecryo24/
Over 50 leading cryosphere scientists warn of vastly higher impacts and costs to the global economy given accelerating losses in the world’s snow and ice regions.
➡️ State of the Cryosphere 2024 report: iccinet.org/statecryo24/
Thanks for the correction @bberwyn.bsky.social and @insideclimatenews!
October 2, 2024 at 4:42 PM
Thanks for the correction @bberwyn.bsky.social and @insideclimatenews!
This graphic from @insideclimatenews is wrong. It doesn’t show the Greenland Ice Sheet in 500, but in almost 1,000 years instead. See the figure from the original paper below, which you can check out here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
@bberwyn.bsky.social Any chance to correct this?
@bberwyn.bsky.social Any chance to correct this?
October 2, 2024 at 8:25 AM
This graphic from @insideclimatenews is wrong. It doesn’t show the Greenland Ice Sheet in 500, but in almost 1,000 years instead. See the figure from the original paper below, which you can check out here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
@bberwyn.bsky.social Any chance to correct this?
@bberwyn.bsky.social Any chance to correct this?
No, not really. In the figure below the continental shelf edge can be seen as the sharp transition between light and dark blue off the coast of the continents. The grounding line is the black line (in the case of Antarctica, the inner of the two).
June 26, 2024 at 7:40 PM
No, not really. In the figure below the continental shelf edge can be seen as the sharp transition between light and dark blue off the coast of the continents. The grounding line is the black line (in the case of Antarctica, the inner of the two).
Must-Watch / Must-Know for everyone!
Are people aware that the #Cryosphere (Earth’s frozen parts) features several #TippingPoints with catastrophic global impacts? ❄️🧊🏔
⬇️ Pam Pearson, Director of ICCI, about the importance & urgency of serious #ClimateAction
🎞 www.youtube.com/watch?v=vR0a...
Are people aware that the #Cryosphere (Earth’s frozen parts) features several #TippingPoints with catastrophic global impacts? ❄️🧊🏔
⬇️ Pam Pearson, Director of ICCI, about the importance & urgency of serious #ClimateAction
🎞 www.youtube.com/watch?v=vR0a...
June 20, 2024 at 7:55 AM
Must-Watch / Must-Know for everyone!
Are people aware that the #Cryosphere (Earth’s frozen parts) features several #TippingPoints with catastrophic global impacts? ❄️🧊🏔
⬇️ Pam Pearson, Director of ICCI, about the importance & urgency of serious #ClimateAction
🎞 www.youtube.com/watch?v=vR0a...
Are people aware that the #Cryosphere (Earth’s frozen parts) features several #TippingPoints with catastrophic global impacts? ❄️🧊🏔
⬇️ Pam Pearson, Director of ICCI, about the importance & urgency of serious #ClimateAction
🎞 www.youtube.com/watch?v=vR0a...
Just recently @edhawkins.bsky.social also shared a great version of this graph (could only find it on X though, not sure if he shared it here too…)
March 15, 2024 at 8:48 PM
Just recently @edhawkins.bsky.social also shared a great version of this graph (could only find it on X though, not sure if he shared it here too…)
In the sketch, we are in the light red top right-hand corner. If we do not manage to cool global temps in the long term, we take the orange path. In the better case, we take the purple one.
More details in these two papers:
1️⃣ tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
2️⃣ tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
More details in these two papers:
1️⃣ tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
2️⃣ tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
February 26, 2024 at 6:54 PM
In the sketch, we are in the light red top right-hand corner. If we do not manage to cool global temps in the long term, we take the orange path. In the better case, we take the purple one.
More details in these two papers:
1️⃣ tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
2️⃣ tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
More details in these two papers:
1️⃣ tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
2️⃣ tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
Last but not least: Earth’s tipping systems can interact in ways that destabilise one another, making tipping ‘cascades’ possible, where tipping one system causes another TP to be passed. But, although generally possible, such domino effects are currently still highly uncertain!
December 15, 2023 at 3:45 PM
Last but not least: Earth’s tipping systems can interact in ways that destabilise one another, making tipping ‘cascades’ possible, where tipping one system causes another TP to be passed. But, although generally possible, such domino effects are currently still highly uncertain!
At sustained >2°C global warming, large subglacial basins in #EastAntarctica could also cross their TPs, and irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets is likely to become locked in, with far-reaching impacts for the livelihoods of millions of people.
December 15, 2023 at 3:44 PM
At sustained >2°C global warming, large subglacial basins in #EastAntarctica could also cross their TPs, and irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets is likely to become locked in, with far-reaching impacts for the livelihoods of millions of people.
Already at today’s 1.2°C global warming, we cannot rule out that the ice sheets of #Greenland and #WestAntarctica may pass their TPs eventually, resulting in several meters of committed long-term #SeaLevelRise, and that parts of #Permafrost become subject to abrupt thaw.
December 15, 2023 at 3:43 PM
Already at today’s 1.2°C global warming, we cannot rule out that the ice sheets of #Greenland and #WestAntarctica may pass their TPs eventually, resulting in several meters of committed long-term #SeaLevelRise, and that parts of #Permafrost become subject to abrupt thaw.
Let’s start with the Executive Summary: In the cryosphere, six TPs are identified, including large-scale TPs for the Greenland & Antarctic #IceSheets. Localised TPs likely exist for #Glaciers and #Permafrost thaw. Evidence for large-scale TPs in #SeaIce and permafrost is limited.
December 15, 2023 at 3:43 PM
Let’s start with the Executive Summary: In the cryosphere, six TPs are identified, including large-scale TPs for the Greenland & Antarctic #IceSheets. Localised TPs likely exist for #Glaciers and #Permafrost thaw. Evidence for large-scale TPs in #SeaIce and permafrost is limited.
I will focus here only on TPs in the #Cryosphere (the Earth’s frozen parts), which is most vulnerable to global climate warming. If you’d like to learn more about what TPs are first, see this nice explainer by @carbonbrief.org, for example: carbonbrief.org/explainer-ni...
December 15, 2023 at 3:42 PM
I will focus here only on TPs in the #Cryosphere (the Earth’s frozen parts), which is most vulnerable to global climate warming. If you’d like to learn more about what TPs are first, see this nice explainer by @carbonbrief.org, for example: carbonbrief.org/explainer-ni...
The report identifies “negative” tipping points (TPs) in the Earth system, ranging from ice-sheet collapse to rainforest dieback, but also focuses on “positive” TPs in socio-economical, technical & political systems that could trigger positive change and thus mitigate risks.
December 15, 2023 at 3:40 PM
The report identifies “negative” tipping points (TPs) in the Earth system, ranging from ice-sheet collapse to rainforest dieback, but also focuses on “positive” TPs in socio-economical, technical & political systems that could trigger positive change and thus mitigate risks.
Last week we published the first-ever Global Tipping Points Report at #COP28🌍.
➡️ global-tipping-points.org
I contributed to the chapter on tipping points in the cryosphere 🧊❄️🇦🇶🇬🇱, led by Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann.
#GlobalTippingPoints #Climate #TippingPoints #GTPR2023
A quick 🧵:
➡️ global-tipping-points.org
I contributed to the chapter on tipping points in the cryosphere 🧊❄️🇦🇶🇬🇱, led by Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann.
#GlobalTippingPoints #Climate #TippingPoints #GTPR2023
A quick 🧵:
December 15, 2023 at 3:40 PM
Last week we published the first-ever Global Tipping Points Report at #COP28🌍.
➡️ global-tipping-points.org
I contributed to the chapter on tipping points in the cryosphere 🧊❄️🇦🇶🇬🇱, led by Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann.
#GlobalTippingPoints #Climate #TippingPoints #GTPR2023
A quick 🧵:
➡️ global-tipping-points.org
I contributed to the chapter on tipping points in the cryosphere 🧊❄️🇦🇶🇬🇱, led by Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann.
#GlobalTippingPoints #Climate #TippingPoints #GTPR2023
A quick 🧵:
First-ever Global Tipping Points Report, summarizing our current understanding of the risks of negative and opportunities of positive #TippingPoints in the Earth system and society, to be launched on Wednesday during COP28🌍.
More info: global-tipping-points.org
#GTPR2023 #Climate #TippingPoints
More info: global-tipping-points.org
#GTPR2023 #Climate #TippingPoints
December 4, 2023 at 11:46 AM
First-ever Global Tipping Points Report, summarizing our current understanding of the risks of negative and opportunities of positive #TippingPoints in the Earth system and society, to be launched on Wednesday during COP28🌍.
More info: global-tipping-points.org
#GTPR2023 #Climate #TippingPoints
More info: global-tipping-points.org
#GTPR2023 #Climate #TippingPoints
Extremely happy that my new paper on the future of Antarctic surface melting is finally published! 🎉
We use a new melt module in the ice-flow model PISM, which in addition to temperature also takes into account the effect of solar radiation & thus the melt–albedo feedback.
doi.org/10.5194/tc-1...
We use a new melt module in the ice-flow model PISM, which in addition to temperature also takes into account the effect of solar radiation & thus the melt–albedo feedback.
doi.org/10.5194/tc-1...
November 2, 2023 at 8:18 PM
Extremely happy that my new paper on the future of Antarctic surface melting is finally published! 🎉
We use a new melt module in the ice-flow model PISM, which in addition to temperature also takes into account the effect of solar radiation & thus the melt–albedo feedback.
doi.org/10.5194/tc-1...
We use a new melt module in the ice-flow model PISM, which in addition to temperature also takes into account the effect of solar radiation & thus the melt–albedo feedback.
doi.org/10.5194/tc-1...
🚨 Publication Alert: we've recently published a major 2-part study on the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In brief: we find no indication of irreversible, unstable retreat of West Antarctica yet—but global warming is already enough to trigger slow but certain ice loss over coming centuries.
October 2, 2023 at 4:45 PM
🚨 Publication Alert: we've recently published a major 2-part study on the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In brief: we find no indication of irreversible, unstable retreat of West Antarctica yet—but global warming is already enough to trigger slow but certain ice loss over coming centuries.
Sign up for our upcoming Policy Event on #TippingPoints in #Antarctica 🇦🇶!
More info and registration link here 👉 www.tipaccs.eu/antarctic-po...
More info and registration link here 👉 www.tipaccs.eu/antarctic-po...
September 27, 2023 at 11:30 AM
Sign up for our upcoming Policy Event on #TippingPoints in #Antarctica 🇦🇶!
More info and registration link here 👉 www.tipaccs.eu/antarctic-po...
More info and registration link here 👉 www.tipaccs.eu/antarctic-po...