JP Spencer
@jpspencer.bsky.social
Director of Devolution Policy, Labour Together. Economist. Author at Future North writing about the North of England (link below).
Posts about policy, politics and the Pennines (and beyond).
📍 West Yorkshire.
🧭 futurenorth.substack.com
Posts about policy, politics and the Pennines (and beyond).
📍 West Yorkshire.
🧭 futurenorth.substack.com
What does the Budget mean for the North?
For me, the Chancellor's decision to maintain the highest sustained level of investment in decades is key to our future prosperity.
It means around £30bn per year of additional investment compared to the old plans. That's 12 West Yorkshire trams!
1/2
For me, the Chancellor's decision to maintain the highest sustained level of investment in decades is key to our future prosperity.
It means around £30bn per year of additional investment compared to the old plans. That's 12 West Yorkshire trams!
1/2
November 26, 2025 at 3:20 PM
What does the Budget mean for the North?
For me, the Chancellor's decision to maintain the highest sustained level of investment in decades is key to our future prosperity.
It means around £30bn per year of additional investment compared to the old plans. That's 12 West Yorkshire trams!
1/2
For me, the Chancellor's decision to maintain the highest sustained level of investment in decades is key to our future prosperity.
It means around £30bn per year of additional investment compared to the old plans. That's 12 West Yorkshire trams!
1/2
Distributional analysis published alongside the Budget shows that the poorest will benefit most from the measures - particularly due to welfare and public service improvements.
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
November 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Distributional analysis published alongside the Budget shows that the poorest will benefit most from the measures - particularly due to welfare and public service improvements.
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Source: www.gov.uk/government/p...
Turning to productivity and thinking about changes in employment and changes in output, we can see that most sectors have been adding either one or the other.
However, manufacturing has declined in both jobs and GVA (with productivity staying constant) which is disappointing.
4/6
However, manufacturing has declined in both jobs and GVA (with productivity staying constant) which is disappointing.
4/6
November 20, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Turning to productivity and thinking about changes in employment and changes in output, we can see that most sectors have been adding either one or the other.
However, manufacturing has declined in both jobs and GVA (with productivity staying constant) which is disappointing.
4/6
However, manufacturing has declined in both jobs and GVA (with productivity staying constant) which is disappointing.
4/6
Looking at the top ten sectors in terms of output, roughly those linked to property and professional activities have grown, whilst manufacturing and public sector related sectors have relatively struggled.
3/6
3/6
November 20, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Looking at the top ten sectors in terms of output, roughly those linked to property and professional activities have grown, whilst manufacturing and public sector related sectors have relatively struggled.
3/6
3/6
South Yorkshire sits in the middle of the Northern productivity leaderboard for 2019 to 2023. So we would expect some sectors to have done relatively well, whilst others might have declined.
2/6
2/6
November 20, 2025 at 8:28 AM
South Yorkshire sits in the middle of the Northern productivity leaderboard for 2019 to 2023. So we would expect some sectors to have done relatively well, whilst others might have declined.
2/6
2/6
Rotherham has seen a remarkable rise in its productivity in recent years. From the lowest in South Yorkshire in 2004, by 2023 it had the highest productivity in the area, even above Sheffield.
So what’s going on in South Yorkshire?
Short thread below.
1/6
So what’s going on in South Yorkshire?
Short thread below.
1/6
November 20, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Rotherham has seen a remarkable rise in its productivity in recent years. From the lowest in South Yorkshire in 2004, by 2023 it had the highest productivity in the area, even above Sheffield.
So what’s going on in South Yorkshire?
Short thread below.
1/6
So what’s going on in South Yorkshire?
Short thread below.
1/6
In terms of Northern's three minute punctuality, this has improved since the era of private control in 19-20. But is still below the national average too.
5/7
5/7
November 13, 2025 at 5:08 PM
In terms of Northern's three minute punctuality, this has improved since the era of private control in 19-20. But is still below the national average too.
5/7
5/7
For Northern, there has also been a reduction in cancellations in recent months - though also likely due to a reduction in the timetable. Though worth noting that Northern entered public control in March 2020 – before the time series below.
4/7
4/7
November 13, 2025 at 5:08 PM
For Northern, there has also been a reduction in cancellations in recent months - though also likely due to a reduction in the timetable. Though worth noting that Northern entered public control in March 2020 – before the time series below.
4/7
4/7
It seems that there is some correlation with public ownership in terms of improvements?
In terms of three minute punctuality for TPE, things have got marginally better in recent years but still far below the national average of 86.3%.
3/7
In terms of three minute punctuality for TPE, things have got marginally better in recent years but still far below the national average of 86.3%.
3/7
November 13, 2025 at 5:08 PM
It seems that there is some correlation with public ownership in terms of improvements?
In terms of three minute punctuality for TPE, things have got marginally better in recent years but still far below the national average of 86.3%.
3/7
In terms of three minute punctuality for TPE, things have got marginally better in recent years but still far below the national average of 86.3%.
3/7
TPE's cancellations were national news in 2022-23. Trains cancelled the night before did not count towards the official stats.
Figures accounting for this are shown below. There is a clear drop after early 2023 – TPE had been taken into public control and timetable reductions were made.
2/7
Figures accounting for this are shown below. There is a clear drop after early 2023 – TPE had been taken into public control and timetable reductions were made.
2/7
November 13, 2025 at 5:08 PM
TPE's cancellations were national news in 2022-23. Trains cancelled the night before did not count towards the official stats.
Figures accounting for this are shown below. There is a clear drop after early 2023 – TPE had been taken into public control and timetable reductions were made.
2/7
Figures accounting for this are shown below. There is a clear drop after early 2023 – TPE had been taken into public control and timetable reductions were made.
2/7
🚆Has the North’s rail service improved?
📈 I’ve had a look into the punctuality and cancellation statistics for Northern and Transpennine Express (TPE) as my recent experiences suggested things might have got better – from a low base back in 2022 as pictured!
Short 🧵
1/7
📈 I’ve had a look into the punctuality and cancellation statistics for Northern and Transpennine Express (TPE) as my recent experiences suggested things might have got better – from a low base back in 2022 as pictured!
Short 🧵
1/7
November 13, 2025 at 5:08 PM
🚆Has the North’s rail service improved?
📈 I’ve had a look into the punctuality and cancellation statistics for Northern and Transpennine Express (TPE) as my recent experiences suggested things might have got better – from a low base back in 2022 as pictured!
Short 🧵
1/7
📈 I’ve had a look into the punctuality and cancellation statistics for Northern and Transpennine Express (TPE) as my recent experiences suggested things might have got better – from a low base back in 2022 as pictured!
Short 🧵
1/7
‘Mayors will do business with Great British Rail as part of a statutory role’
@rich-crabtree.bsky.social - Head of Mayoral Partnerships at Shadow GBR talking about how places will be able to work on rail infrastructure and services in future
@rich-crabtree.bsky.social - Head of Mayoral Partnerships at Shadow GBR talking about how places will be able to work on rail infrastructure and services in future
November 6, 2025 at 2:59 PM
‘Mayors will do business with Great British Rail as part of a statutory role’
@rich-crabtree.bsky.social - Head of Mayoral Partnerships at Shadow GBR talking about how places will be able to work on rail infrastructure and services in future
@rich-crabtree.bsky.social - Head of Mayoral Partnerships at Shadow GBR talking about how places will be able to work on rail infrastructure and services in future
“This is about outcomes for end users”
Huw Jenkins of @lpoolcityregion.bsky.social on how publicly controlled Merseyrail has gone from ‘miseryrail’ to the best performing in the country.
Huw Jenkins of @lpoolcityregion.bsky.social on how publicly controlled Merseyrail has gone from ‘miseryrail’ to the best performing in the country.
November 6, 2025 at 2:55 PM
“This is about outcomes for end users”
Huw Jenkins of @lpoolcityregion.bsky.social on how publicly controlled Merseyrail has gone from ‘miseryrail’ to the best performing in the country.
Huw Jenkins of @lpoolcityregion.bsky.social on how publicly controlled Merseyrail has gone from ‘miseryrail’ to the best performing in the country.
‘We would never have had that without devolution’
Susan Hinchcliffe, Leader of Bradford, on the investment in transport, skills, regeneration and culture in Bradford.
At @instituteforgovernment.org.uk DevoLab event this morning.
Susan Hinchcliffe, Leader of Bradford, on the investment in transport, skills, regeneration and culture in Bradford.
At @instituteforgovernment.org.uk DevoLab event this morning.
November 6, 2025 at 2:53 PM
‘We would never have had that without devolution’
Susan Hinchcliffe, Leader of Bradford, on the investment in transport, skills, regeneration and culture in Bradford.
At @instituteforgovernment.org.uk DevoLab event this morning.
Susan Hinchcliffe, Leader of Bradford, on the investment in transport, skills, regeneration and culture in Bradford.
At @instituteforgovernment.org.uk DevoLab event this morning.
Looking at a rough measure of productivity tells an interesting story. It has increased most in professional/scientific activities and education – exactly the areas a major urban area would specialise in.
3/5
3/5
November 6, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Looking at a rough measure of productivity tells an interesting story. It has increased most in professional/scientific activities and education – exactly the areas a major urban area would specialise in.
3/5
3/5
Growth has been strong in a number of Liverpool City Region's biggest sectors, including education, the public sector, construction, professional and scientific sectors. The largest growing subsectors have been publishing and science research.
2/5
2/5
November 6, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Growth has been strong in a number of Liverpool City Region's biggest sectors, including education, the public sector, construction, professional and scientific sectors. The largest growing subsectors have been publishing and science research.
2/5
2/5
The Liverpool City Region has been growing strongly in recent years – not too far behind Greater Manchester and third in the leaderboard of Northern productivity growth.
But why is this the case? And what can we learn for the UK productivity problem?
Short 🧵
1/5
But why is this the case? And what can we learn for the UK productivity problem?
Short 🧵
1/5
November 6, 2025 at 9:13 AM
The Liverpool City Region has been growing strongly in recent years – not too far behind Greater Manchester and third in the leaderboard of Northern productivity growth.
But why is this the case? And what can we learn for the UK productivity problem?
Short 🧵
1/5
But why is this the case? And what can we learn for the UK productivity problem?
Short 🧵
1/5
Great to hear from @mayorofgm.bsky.social and @joshsimonsmp.bsky.social at the @goodgrowthfdn.bsky.social ‘Big Northern Growth Reception’.
Andy B talked about the resurgence of growth in the M62 corridor - and the need to build housing, infrastructure and skills pathways to deliver for all.
Andy B talked about the resurgence of growth in the M62 corridor - and the need to build housing, infrastructure and skills pathways to deliver for all.
October 30, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Great to hear from @mayorofgm.bsky.social and @joshsimonsmp.bsky.social at the @goodgrowthfdn.bsky.social ‘Big Northern Growth Reception’.
Andy B talked about the resurgence of growth in the M62 corridor - and the need to build housing, infrastructure and skills pathways to deliver for all.
Andy B talked about the resurgence of growth in the M62 corridor - and the need to build housing, infrastructure and skills pathways to deliver for all.
The area known as the ‘South Pennines’ has a unique landscape of hills and moors mixed with the heritage of mills and canals born of the industrial revolution.
This means that unlike other upland areas, there are a lot of people and businesses in the area.
A tricky balance.
2/3
This means that unlike other upland areas, there are a lot of people and businesses in the area.
A tricky balance.
2/3
October 30, 2025 at 8:47 AM
The area known as the ‘South Pennines’ has a unique landscape of hills and moors mixed with the heritage of mills and canals born of the industrial revolution.
This means that unlike other upland areas, there are a lot of people and businesses in the area.
A tricky balance.
2/3
This means that unlike other upland areas, there are a lot of people and businesses in the area.
A tricky balance.
2/3
The Pennines are an unbroken chain of upland areas from near Stoke to Scotland.
But looking closely at a map of protected landscapes like national parks – the chain is broken between the Peaks and the Dales.
Why is this one area not protected - and should it be?
Short 🧵
1/3
But looking closely at a map of protected landscapes like national parks – the chain is broken between the Peaks and the Dales.
Why is this one area not protected - and should it be?
Short 🧵
1/3
October 30, 2025 at 8:47 AM
The Pennines are an unbroken chain of upland areas from near Stoke to Scotland.
But looking closely at a map of protected landscapes like national parks – the chain is broken between the Peaks and the Dales.
Why is this one area not protected - and should it be?
Short 🧵
1/3
But looking closely at a map of protected landscapes like national parks – the chain is broken between the Peaks and the Dales.
Why is this one area not protected - and should it be?
Short 🧵
1/3
According to some, the first splitting of the atom happened in Manchester. Cumbria was also the site of the world’s first large scale nuclear power station – and the North is still home to three of the UK’s five operating nuclear power stations.
1/2 ☢️🧵
1/2 ☢️🧵
October 23, 2025 at 7:51 AM
According to some, the first splitting of the atom happened in Manchester. Cumbria was also the site of the world’s first large scale nuclear power station – and the North is still home to three of the UK’s five operating nuclear power stations.
1/2 ☢️🧵
1/2 ☢️🧵
The North Yorkshire part of the overall North Yorkshire statistical area - which covers all of the ‘York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority’ – is doing relatively worse than York. Is this an urban/rural phenomenon? Though also rural Cumbria had a different story.
4/5
4/5
October 16, 2025 at 7:35 AM
The North Yorkshire part of the overall North Yorkshire statistical area - which covers all of the ‘York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority’ – is doing relatively worse than York. Is this an urban/rural phenomenon? Though also rural Cumbria had a different story.
4/5
4/5
Looking at these sectors below, we can understand the relative change in output per employment.
North Yorkshire has seen a mixed picture – with productivity on this metric decreasing in areas like health and hospitality. Increases in jobs not leading to an increase in output.
3/5
North Yorkshire has seen a mixed picture – with productivity on this metric decreasing in areas like health and hospitality. Increases in jobs not leading to an increase in output.
3/5
October 16, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Looking at these sectors below, we can understand the relative change in output per employment.
North Yorkshire has seen a mixed picture – with productivity on this metric decreasing in areas like health and hospitality. Increases in jobs not leading to an increase in output.
3/5
North Yorkshire has seen a mixed picture – with productivity on this metric decreasing in areas like health and hospitality. Increases in jobs not leading to an increase in output.
3/5
Looking at the largest ten sectors in North Yorkshire, most of them have grown.
But the data shows that hours worked grew more. Leading to an overall decrease in productivity of 0.7% over the 2019-23 period.
2/5
But the data shows that hours worked grew more. Leading to an overall decrease in productivity of 0.7% over the 2019-23 period.
2/5
October 16, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Looking at the largest ten sectors in North Yorkshire, most of them have grown.
But the data shows that hours worked grew more. Leading to an overall decrease in productivity of 0.7% over the 2019-23 period.
2/5
But the data shows that hours worked grew more. Leading to an overall decrease in productivity of 0.7% over the 2019-23 period.
2/5