Josh Bivens
@joshbivens-econ.bsky.social
Mostly here for discussions of economics and policy. All views here are my own.
Reposted by Josh Bivens
Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k.
#EconSky
#EconSky
August 1, 2025 at 12:46 PM
To me, today's jobs report is what entering a recession looks like. Could we pull up? Sure. But if we look back and end up dating an official recession that starts 3-6 months from now, this is what it would look like today - rapid softening/deterioration in the labor market.
August 1, 2025 at 12:41 PM
To me, today's jobs report is what entering a recession looks like. Could we pull up? Sure. But if we look back and end up dating an official recession that starts 3-6 months from now, this is what it would look like today - rapid softening/deterioration in the labor market.
I'm sure somebody has pointed this out already, but, the Trump administration's excitement about 1.7% ytd growth in real average hourly earnings for prod/non-supervisory workers is...weird? Kind of 'meh' relative to what they inherited? For context, last bar on right is what they're so excited about
June 20, 2025 at 5:14 PM
I'm sure somebody has pointed this out already, but, the Trump administration's excitement about 1.7% ytd growth in real average hourly earnings for prod/non-supervisory workers is...weird? Kind of 'meh' relative to what they inherited? For context, last bar on right is what they're so excited about
Like many, I’m not looking forward to the Trump parade this Saturday. It is dumb on so many levels. I’ve been a bit surprised, though, at how many people seem very upset about its cost – which estimates seem to put as high as $45 million. 1 www.npr.org/2025/06/12/g...
By the numbers: A look at the Army's 250th anniversary parade on Trump's birthday
In a few days, the nation's capital will host its largest military parade in more than three decades. We look at some numbers behind the celebration and the key historical moments leading up to it.
www.npr.org
June 12, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Like many, I’m not looking forward to the Trump parade this Saturday. It is dumb on so many levels. I’ve been a bit surprised, though, at how many people seem very upset about its cost – which estimates seem to put as high as $45 million. 1 www.npr.org/2025/06/12/g...
Stock prices can be a noisy signal - some declines aren't bad and some increases reflect policy choices that hurt normal people. But past few weeks' declines are unambiguously bad - they are correct predictions that the US economy will be poorer because of Trump policies. www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...
The stock market is not the economy, but this time they really are sinking together
Many of Donald Trump’s economic plans put forward during the presidential campaign seemed extremely unwise even to the corporate leaders who supported him and care about profits over everything else. ...
www.epi.org
April 9, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Stock prices can be a noisy signal - some declines aren't bad and some increases reflect policy choices that hurt normal people. But past few weeks' declines are unambiguously bad - they are correct predictions that the US economy will be poorer because of Trump policies. www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...
Just noting that Congress can stop the market carnage anytime they want to by rolling back these tariffs. 100% in their power. They're watching a house ablaze with a firehose sitting at their feet and just refusing to use it. GOP leadership, not the Fed, should be having emergency meetings today.
April 7, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Just noting that Congress can stop the market carnage anytime they want to by rolling back these tariffs. 100% in their power. They're watching a house ablaze with a firehose sitting at their feet and just refusing to use it. GOP leadership, not the Fed, should be having emergency meetings today.
The recent market implosion is mostly about the crazy approach to tariffs the admin is taking, but this crazy approach also likely opened eyes to just how much pain is implied in all sorts of other Trump/GOP policies. For example, the Senate budget resolution is incredibly irresponsible. 1
April 7, 2025 at 2:16 PM
The recent market implosion is mostly about the crazy approach to tariffs the admin is taking, but this crazy approach also likely opened eyes to just how much pain is implied in all sorts of other Trump/GOP policies. For example, the Senate budget resolution is incredibly irresponsible. 1
Liz Truss is very excited to hand off the "Dumbest Macro Policymaker in the World" sash to Donald Trump.
April 7, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Liz Truss is very excited to hand off the "Dumbest Macro Policymaker in the World" sash to Donald Trump.
This take is wearing ok. The stock market is a noisy signal and doesn't generally correlate tightly at all with broad-based economic security...but in recent weeks its moves are highly informative. 1 www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...
The stock market is not the economy, but this time they really are sinking together
Many of Donald Trump’s economic plans put forward during the presidential campaign seemed extremely unwise even to the corporate leaders who supported him and care about profits over everything else. ...
www.epi.org
April 7, 2025 at 1:37 PM
This take is wearing ok. The stock market is a noisy signal and doesn't generally correlate tightly at all with broad-based economic security...but in recent weeks its moves are highly informative. 1 www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...
Reposted by Josh Bivens
Based on the replies l, it looks like there a lot of fed workers on @bsky.app
I just wanted to say THANK YOU. I can't imagine the shit you are going through right now
Thanks for your service to our country
I just wanted to say THANK YOU. I can't imagine the shit you are going through right now
Thanks for your service to our country
March 27, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Based on the replies l, it looks like there a lot of fed workers on @bsky.app
I just wanted to say THANK YOU. I can't imagine the shit you are going through right now
Thanks for your service to our country
I just wanted to say THANK YOU. I can't imagine the shit you are going through right now
Thanks for your service to our country
Reposted by Josh Bivens
Latest #NumbersDay data out from the Department of Labor (www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) show those initial federal UI claims from the last few weeks have translated into insured continuing claims, up by nearly 50% from this time last year.
#EconSky
#EconSky
March 27, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Latest #NumbersDay data out from the Department of Labor (www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) show those initial federal UI claims from the last few weeks have translated into insured continuing claims, up by nearly 50% from this time last year.
#EconSky
#EconSky
Does "running the govt more like a business" at least mean that the dummies who cost it $500 billion (with a 'b') get fired? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Tax revenue could drop by 10 percent amid turmoil at IRS
Staff cuts and disruptions related to the U.S. DOGE Service have officials bracing for a sharp loss of revenue.
www.washingtonpost.com
March 24, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Does "running the govt more like a business" at least mean that the dummies who cost it $500 billion (with a 'b') get fired? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Reposted by Josh Bivens
This continues to be the biggest story in the country: DOGE has already squandered half a trillion dollars in 6 weeks. Not billion. half a trillion, $500 billion talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/irs-p...
IRS Predicts DOGE Lost Half a Trillion Dollars for the USA
The Post reports today that the IRS’ internal projections estimate that the...
talkingpointsmemo.com
March 24, 2025 at 3:20 PM
This continues to be the biggest story in the country: DOGE has already squandered half a trillion dollars in 6 weeks. Not billion. half a trillion, $500 billion talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/irs-p...
This is really good and 100% right. 1 cepr.net/publications...
How Quickly Would Elon Musk Have Been Fired If He Worked in the Private Sector?
In slightly over two months, Elon Musk and DOGE have committed more major blunders than a million bureaucrats would do in a lifetime.
cepr.net
March 24, 2025 at 5:47 PM
This is really good and 100% right. 1 cepr.net/publications...
Briefing Book - one of my favorite SubStacks - graciously allowed us to guest post about our new data tool and what it tells us about how well the US labor market and economic policy have been generating broadly-shared prosperity in recent decades. 1 www.briefingbook.info/p/deliberate...
Deliberate policy decisions have disempowered workers and increased labor market inequality
The new State of Working America Data Library shows the latest trends in productivity, wages, labor markets, unionization and CEO pay
www.briefingbook.info
March 18, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Briefing Book - one of my favorite SubStacks - graciously allowed us to guest post about our new data tool and what it tells us about how well the US labor market and economic policy have been generating broadly-shared prosperity in recent decades. 1 www.briefingbook.info/p/deliberate...
Seems like the self-regarding "facts don't care about your feelings" capitalists looking for hard numbers on efficiency shouldn't be actively destroying data? 1 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
Opinion | How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
Sweeping statistical purges are part of a broader attempt to reinvent “truth.”
www.washingtonpost.com
March 12, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Seems like the self-regarding "facts don't care about your feelings" capitalists looking for hard numbers on efficiency shouldn't be actively destroying data? 1 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...
Reposted by Josh Bivens
Was just talking to a friend earlier today who would file ethics paperwork so she could accept a glass of wine at a health policy happy hour hosted at a think tank
To think, quaint things like ethics rules prevented me from buying Girl Scout cookies from a co-worker when I was a civil servant. And then I had to counsel them not to sell them.
March 12, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Was just talking to a friend earlier today who would file ethics paperwork so she could accept a glass of wine at a health policy happy hour hosted at a think tank
Reposted by Josh Bivens
The dismantling of NCES is insane and will critically hobble progress in improving education - this agency is so important it existed more than 100 years before the creation of Department of Education.
Hearing that nearly all the employees in the statistics agency inside the Education Department -- NCES (National Center for Education Statistics) -- have lost their jobs. Rumors that the NAEP test -- the nation's report card -- will no longer be run by NCES. This info is not confirmed.
March 12, 2025 at 1:50 AM
The dismantling of NCES is insane and will critically hobble progress in improving education - this agency is so important it existed more than 100 years before the creation of Department of Education.
These small business owners seem to realize that they won't be able to just call up the White House and make some rhetorical commitment to investing in America to get some tailored help.
This seems like a big U.S. economics story. I don't see it getting much coverage. Why?
March 12, 2025 at 2:14 PM
These small business owners seem to realize that they won't be able to just call up the White House and make some rhetorical commitment to investing in America to get some tailored help.
Reposted by Josh Bivens
Illegal orders trying to hide evidence of other illegal orders.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/u...
U.S.A.I.D. Official Orders Employees to Shred or Burn Classified and Personnel Records
Union representatives demanded that the aid agency follow the law stated in the Federal Records Act. Defense lawyers argued that officials had not destroyed personnel records and would not destroy any...
www.nytimes.com
March 12, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Illegal orders trying to hide evidence of other illegal orders.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/u...
Every time I hear something this I'll just remind people that the Trump admin inherited a very strong economy. The path of not doing dumb things and riding a wave of unearned credit was totally open to them. www.epi.org/blog/preside...
March 11, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Every time I hear something this I'll just remind people that the Trump admin inherited a very strong economy. The path of not doing dumb things and riding a wave of unearned credit was totally open to them. www.epi.org/blog/preside...
In the year before the Trump administration took over, inflation-adjusted stock prices rose just under 30%. www.epi.org/blog/preside...
President-elect Trump is inheriting a historically strong economy
President-elect Trump will inherit unquestionably the strongest economy for an incoming administration since the George W. Bush administration. That strong economic performance heading up to the 2001 ...
www.epi.org
March 10, 2025 at 9:30 PM
In the year before the Trump administration took over, inflation-adjusted stock prices rose just under 30%. www.epi.org/blog/preside...
These are great. On the alcohol sales trendline, when i looked at that there was no trend from 2007-2014 and then it started rising. If you calculated the "pre-pandemic trend" as 2007-2019 we'd still be far above the trendline on alcohol spending today. 1
Fantastic graphs by @aatishb.bsky.social + Irineo Cabreros showing how covid broke the trendline on... everything five years ago.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
March 10, 2025 at 9:00 PM
These are great. On the alcohol sales trendline, when i looked at that there was no trend from 2007-2014 and then it started rising. If you calculated the "pre-pandemic trend" as 2007-2019 we'd still be far above the trendline on alcohol spending today. 1
This is a really important point. Just a giant strikeout for self-proclaimed fraudbusters. It's mostly driven by happily low levels of fraud (not zero - but low) in federal spending, but also driven by DOGE bringing a pathetically low level of basic knowledge of the public sector to their job?
After taking unprecedented (illegal) access to federal data systems, DOGE has found basically no substantial waste, fraud, or abuse.
They've lied a lot but come up quite empty in reality.
They've lied a lot but come up quite empty in reality.
March 10, 2025 at 8:29 PM
This is a really important point. Just a giant strikeout for self-proclaimed fraudbusters. It's mostly driven by happily low levels of fraud (not zero - but low) in federal spending, but also driven by DOGE bringing a pathetically low level of basic knowledge of the public sector to their job?
Reposted by Josh Bivens
Why is President Trump attacking the Postal Service? Your questions answered. www.epi.org/publication/...
Why is President Trump attacking the Postal Service? Your questions answered.
What has the president said about the Postal Service? The Washington Post reported recently that President Trump planned to fire the governing board of the U.S. Postal Service and merge the agency wit...
www.epi.org
March 10, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Why is President Trump attacking the Postal Service? Your questions answered. www.epi.org/publication/...