Josh Housden
@josh-housden.nowcast.uk
He/Him • @nowcast-eu.bsky.social / @nowcast.uk founder • Green Party member • I tweet about politics 📊
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇩🇪 Germany | Legislative Election polling averages — January 21, 2026
➡️ AfD: 25.8% (+5.0)
⬛ Union: 24.8% (-3.8)
🟥 SPD: 14.4% (-2.0)
🟩 GRN: 12.3% (+0.7)
🟪 Linke: 10.4% (+1.6)
+/- vs. Feb 2025
Projection at the constituency level
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Germany/
➡️ AfD: 25.8% (+5.0)
⬛ Union: 24.8% (-3.8)
🟥 SPD: 14.4% (-2.0)
🟩 GRN: 12.3% (+0.7)
🟪 Linke: 10.4% (+1.6)
+/- vs. Feb 2025
Projection at the constituency level
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Germany/
January 21, 2026 at 2:03 PM
🇩🇪 Germany | Legislative Election polling averages — January 21, 2026
➡️ AfD: 25.8% (+5.0)
⬛ Union: 24.8% (-3.8)
🟥 SPD: 14.4% (-2.0)
🟩 GRN: 12.3% (+0.7)
🟪 Linke: 10.4% (+1.6)
+/- vs. Feb 2025
Projection at the constituency level
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Germany/
➡️ AfD: 25.8% (+5.0)
⬛ Union: 24.8% (-3.8)
🟥 SPD: 14.4% (-2.0)
🟩 GRN: 12.3% (+0.7)
🟪 Linke: 10.4% (+1.6)
+/- vs. Feb 2025
Projection at the constituency level
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Germany/
Reposted by Josh Housden
🏴 | Mid Scotland & Fife regional nowcast (Holyrood) — January, 2026
🟨 SNP: 27.8% (-12.0)
➡️ RFM: 16.9% (+16.7)
🟥 LAB: 14.0% (-1.3)
🟧 LDM: 13.2% (+5.7)
🟦 CON: 12.5% (-12.5)
🟩 GRN: 11.5% (+3.2)
+/- vs. 2021 election
AMS list seats:
1➡️ 2🟥 3🟦 4🟩 5➡️ 6🟥 7🟧
🟨 SNP: 27.8% (-12.0)
➡️ RFM: 16.9% (+16.7)
🟥 LAB: 14.0% (-1.3)
🟧 LDM: 13.2% (+5.7)
🟦 CON: 12.5% (-12.5)
🟩 GRN: 11.5% (+3.2)
+/- vs. 2021 election
AMS list seats:
1➡️ 2🟥 3🟦 4🟩 5➡️ 6🟥 7🟧
January 18, 2026 at 5:41 PM
🏴 | Mid Scotland & Fife regional nowcast (Holyrood) — January, 2026
🟨 SNP: 27.8% (-12.0)
➡️ RFM: 16.9% (+16.7)
🟥 LAB: 14.0% (-1.3)
🟧 LDM: 13.2% (+5.7)
🟦 CON: 12.5% (-12.5)
🟩 GRN: 11.5% (+3.2)
+/- vs. 2021 election
AMS list seats:
1➡️ 2🟥 3🟦 4🟩 5➡️ 6🟥 7🟧
🟨 SNP: 27.8% (-12.0)
➡️ RFM: 16.9% (+16.7)
🟥 LAB: 14.0% (-1.3)
🟧 LDM: 13.2% (+5.7)
🟦 CON: 12.5% (-12.5)
🟩 GRN: 11.5% (+3.2)
+/- vs. 2021 election
AMS list seats:
1➡️ 2🟥 3🟦 4🟩 5➡️ 6🟥 7🟧
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇮🇹 | Probabilistic breakdown of the latest polling / projections for Italy
🟦 CDX majority: 54%
🟥 CSX majority: 18%
Odds of neither coalition reaching a majority of seats is ~28%
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/
🟦 CDX majority: 54%
🟥 CSX majority: 18%
Odds of neither coalition reaching a majority of seats is ~28%
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/
January 15, 2026 at 4:07 PM
🇮🇹 | Probabilistic breakdown of the latest polling / projections for Italy
🟦 CDX majority: 54%
🟥 CSX majority: 18%
Odds of neither coalition reaching a majority of seats is ~28%
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/
🟦 CDX majority: 54%
🟥 CSX majority: 18%
Odds of neither coalition reaching a majority of seats is ~28%
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — January 15, 2026
➡️ RFM: 28% | 325 (+320)
🟦 CON: 18% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18% | 76 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 3% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1% | 9 (+5)
+/- vs. GE2024
🔗 www.nowcast.uk/home/house-o...
➡️ RFM: 28% | 325 (+320)
🟦 CON: 18% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18% | 76 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 3% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1% | 9 (+5)
+/- vs. GE2024
🔗 www.nowcast.uk/home/house-o...
January 15, 2026 at 12:48 PM
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — January 15, 2026
➡️ RFM: 28% | 325 (+320)
🟦 CON: 18% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18% | 76 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 3% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1% | 9 (+5)
+/- vs. GE2024
🔗 www.nowcast.uk/home/house-o...
➡️ RFM: 28% | 325 (+320)
🟦 CON: 18% | 57 (-64)
🟥 LAB: 18% | 76 (-330)
🟩 GRN: 13% | 26 (+22)
🟧 LDM: 12% | 80 (+8)
🟨 SNP: 3% | 45 (+36)
🔲 PLC: 1% | 9 (+5)
+/- vs. GE2024
🔗 www.nowcast.uk/home/house-o...
🏴 | Every seat projection for the Senedd since electoral reforms were approved
For the first time, Plaid+Green comes out greater than Plaid+Labour
Still no right-wing majorities.
For the first time, Plaid+Green comes out greater than Plaid+Labour
Still no right-wing majorities.
January 14, 2026 at 3:29 PM
🏴 | Every seat projection for the Senedd since electoral reforms were approved
For the first time, Plaid+Green comes out greater than Plaid+Labour
Still no right-wing majorities.
For the first time, Plaid+Green comes out greater than Plaid+Labour
Still no right-wing majorities.
Reposted by Josh Housden
🏴 Wales | Senedd projection based on @yougov.co.uk polling — January, 2026
🔲 PLC: 37% | 44
➡️ RFM: 23% | 23
🟩 GRN: 13% | 11
🟥 LAB: 10% | 10
🟦 CON: 10% | 7
🟧 LDM: 5% | 1
Highest ever % for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party
🗳️ Next election = May 7, 2026
🔲 PLC: 37% | 44
➡️ RFM: 23% | 23
🟩 GRN: 13% | 11
🟥 LAB: 10% | 10
🟦 CON: 10% | 7
🟧 LDM: 5% | 1
Highest ever % for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party
🗳️ Next election = May 7, 2026
January 13, 2026 at 8:08 PM
🏴 Wales | Senedd projection based on @yougov.co.uk polling — January, 2026
🔲 PLC: 37% | 44
➡️ RFM: 23% | 23
🟩 GRN: 13% | 11
🟥 LAB: 10% | 10
🟦 CON: 10% | 7
🟧 LDM: 5% | 1
Highest ever % for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party
🗳️ Next election = May 7, 2026
🔲 PLC: 37% | 44
➡️ RFM: 23% | 23
🟩 GRN: 13% | 11
🟥 LAB: 10% | 10
🟦 CON: 10% | 7
🟧 LDM: 5% | 1
Highest ever % for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party
🗳️ Next election = May 7, 2026
🏴 | Current Holyrood polling averages suggest the SNP has a ~20% chance of reaching an overall majority with constituency seats alone (65/73)
Compared to 2011 — lower vote share, higher fragmentation
Compared to 2011 — lower vote share, higher fragmentation
January 13, 2026 at 4:08 PM
🏴 | Current Holyrood polling averages suggest the SNP has a ~20% chance of reaching an overall majority with constituency seats alone (65/73)
Compared to 2011 — lower vote share, higher fragmentation
Compared to 2011 — lower vote share, higher fragmentation
Why Italian seat projections sometimes look random or irrational, with certain parties seeming to arbitrarily gain or lose seats:
Under the current system, many FPTP seats would flip from CDX to CSX with no change to overall vote shares - only broader alliances (CSX + M5S)
e.g.
Under the current system, many FPTP seats would flip from CDX to CSX with no change to overall vote shares - only broader alliances (CSX + M5S)
e.g.
January 12, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Why Italian seat projections sometimes look random or irrational, with certain parties seeming to arbitrarily gain or lose seats:
Under the current system, many FPTP seats would flip from CDX to CSX with no change to overall vote shares - only broader alliances (CSX + M5S)
e.g.
Under the current system, many FPTP seats would flip from CDX to CSX with no change to overall vote shares - only broader alliances (CSX + M5S)
e.g.
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇮🇹 Italy | Legislative Election polling averages — January 12, 2026
⬛ FdI: 29.6% (+3.6)
🟥 PD: 22.2% (+3.1)
🟨 M5S: 12.7% (-2.7)
➡️ Forza: 8.5% (+0.4)
🟩 Lega: 8.4% (-0.4)
🟪 AVS: 6.5% (+2.9)
...
+/- vs. 2022
Projection at the district level 👇
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/
⬛ FdI: 29.6% (+3.6)
🟥 PD: 22.2% (+3.1)
🟨 M5S: 12.7% (-2.7)
➡️ Forza: 8.5% (+0.4)
🟩 Lega: 8.4% (-0.4)
🟪 AVS: 6.5% (+2.9)
...
+/- vs. 2022
Projection at the district level 👇
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/
January 12, 2026 at 1:05 PM
🇮🇹 Italy | Legislative Election polling averages — January 12, 2026
⬛ FdI: 29.6% (+3.6)
🟥 PD: 22.2% (+3.1)
🟨 M5S: 12.7% (-2.7)
➡️ Forza: 8.5% (+0.4)
🟩 Lega: 8.4% (-0.4)
🟪 AVS: 6.5% (+2.9)
...
+/- vs. 2022
Projection at the district level 👇
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/
⬛ FdI: 29.6% (+3.6)
🟥 PD: 22.2% (+3.1)
🟨 M5S: 12.7% (-2.7)
➡️ Forza: 8.5% (+0.4)
🟩 Lega: 8.4% (-0.4)
🟪 AVS: 6.5% (+2.9)
...
+/- vs. 2022
Projection at the district level 👇
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Italy/
⚫ Advance UK are standing in two by-elections on the 20th of Jan
Same candidate in both wards, which are adjacent to eachother but in two different councils (county vs borough)
opencouncildata.co.uk/byelections....
Same candidate in both wards, which are adjacent to eachother but in two different councils (county vs borough)
opencouncildata.co.uk/byelections....
Open Council Data UK - compositions councillors parties wards elections emails
opencouncildata.co.uk
January 11, 2026 at 7:29 PM
⚫ Advance UK are standing in two by-elections on the 20th of Jan
Same candidate in both wards, which are adjacent to eachother but in two different councils (county vs borough)
opencouncildata.co.uk/byelections....
Same candidate in both wards, which are adjacent to eachother but in two different councils (county vs borough)
opencouncildata.co.uk/byelections....
The last election to occur in/around Hull East would have been the 2025 East Yorkshire mayoral
Reform won with 35.8% of the vote
Reform won with 35.8% of the vote
🇬🇧 | Kingston upon Hull East constituency nowcast — January, 2026
➡️ RFM: 49.3% (+18.7)
🟥 LAB: 22.3% (-21.5)
🟧 LDM: 11.1% (+0.2)
🟩 GRN: 10.8% (+5.2)
🟦 CON: 6.5% (-2.6)
+/- vs. GE2024
➡️ RFM: 49.3% (+18.7)
🟥 LAB: 22.3% (-21.5)
🟧 LDM: 11.1% (+0.2)
🟩 GRN: 10.8% (+5.2)
🟦 CON: 6.5% (-2.6)
+/- vs. GE2024
January 10, 2026 at 11:37 PM
The last election to occur in/around Hull East would have been the 2025 East Yorkshire mayoral
Reform won with 35.8% of the vote
Reform won with 35.8% of the vote
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇬🇧 | Kingston upon Hull East constituency nowcast — January, 2026
➡️ RFM: 49.3% (+18.7)
🟥 LAB: 22.3% (-21.5)
🟧 LDM: 11.1% (+0.2)
🟩 GRN: 10.8% (+5.2)
🟦 CON: 6.5% (-2.6)
+/- vs. GE2024
➡️ RFM: 49.3% (+18.7)
🟥 LAB: 22.3% (-21.5)
🟧 LDM: 11.1% (+0.2)
🟩 GRN: 10.8% (+5.2)
🟦 CON: 6.5% (-2.6)
+/- vs. GE2024
January 10, 2026 at 11:25 PM
🇬🇧 | Kingston upon Hull East constituency nowcast — January, 2026
➡️ RFM: 49.3% (+18.7)
🟥 LAB: 22.3% (-21.5)
🟧 LDM: 11.1% (+0.2)
🟩 GRN: 10.8% (+5.2)
🟦 CON: 6.5% (-2.6)
+/- vs. GE2024
➡️ RFM: 49.3% (+18.7)
🟥 LAB: 22.3% (-21.5)
🟧 LDM: 11.1% (+0.2)
🟩 GRN: 10.8% (+5.2)
🟦 CON: 6.5% (-2.6)
+/- vs. GE2024
Possible Westminster by-elections to look out for in 2026:
🟡 Aberdeen South
🟡 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Both (SNP) MPs are seeking election to the Scottish Parliament
Similar thing happened in 2021 that led to the Airdrie and Shotts by-election
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ai...
🟡 Aberdeen South
🟡 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Both (SNP) MPs are seeking election to the Scottish Parliament
Similar thing happened in 2021 that led to the Airdrie and Shotts by-election
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ai...
2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
January 10, 2026 at 7:50 PM
Possible Westminster by-elections to look out for in 2026:
🟡 Aberdeen South
🟡 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Both (SNP) MPs are seeking election to the Scottish Parliament
Similar thing happened in 2021 that led to the Airdrie and Shotts by-election
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ai...
🟡 Aberdeen South
🟡 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
Both (SNP) MPs are seeking election to the Scottish Parliament
Similar thing happened in 2021 that led to the Airdrie and Shotts by-election
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Ai...
Honestly think the last seat here could be a tossup between Tory, Labour and Lib Dem
Ideally though if you're the First Minister you don't want your seat to be a tossup
Ideally though if you're the First Minister you don't want your seat to be a tossup
🏴 | Ceredigion Penfro constituency nowcast — January, 2026
🔲 PLC: 44.2% (4)
➡️ RFM: 20.8% (1)
🟦 CON: 10.8% (1)
—
🟥 LAB: 8.3%
🟧 LDM: 8.2%
🟩 GRN: 6.3%
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Wales/
🔲 PLC: 44.2% (4)
➡️ RFM: 20.8% (1)
🟦 CON: 10.8% (1)
—
🟥 LAB: 8.3%
🟧 LDM: 8.2%
🟩 GRN: 6.3%
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Wales/
January 10, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Honestly think the last seat here could be a tossup between Tory, Labour and Lib Dem
Ideally though if you're the First Minister you don't want your seat to be a tossup
Ideally though if you're the First Minister you don't want your seat to be a tossup
Working on the dashboard for my 2026 Senedd forecasts (& eventually a big chunk of all European elections with @nowcast-eu.bsky.social )
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Wales/
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Wales/
January 9, 2026 at 10:20 PM
Working on the dashboard for my 2026 Senedd forecasts (& eventually a big chunk of all European elections with @nowcast-eu.bsky.social )
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Wales/
🔗 nowcast-eu.github.io/Wales/
Reposted by Josh Housden
This directly contradicts the ministerial statement for why the British Government feels bound to stay on Twitter.
They should be challenged on that and also on how terminally online so much of the cabinet are that they think Twitter represents the British people more than polling does.
They should be challenged on that and also on how terminally online so much of the cabinet are that they think Twitter represents the British people more than polling does.
About 1 in 6 people use X for news - and it is a main source for 3% of people
Previous YouGov surveys showed breaks by regular, occasional and non-users, but this one does not
ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Yo...
Previous YouGov surveys showed breaks by regular, occasional and non-users, but this one does not
ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Yo...
ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net
January 9, 2026 at 5:57 PM
This directly contradicts the ministerial statement for why the British Government feels bound to stay on Twitter.
They should be challenged on that and also on how terminally online so much of the cabinet are that they think Twitter represents the British people more than polling does.
They should be challenged on that and also on how terminally online so much of the cabinet are that they think Twitter represents the British people more than polling does.
Well you're kinda screwed then
Only Reform voters can save Labour
By Luke Akehurst
By Luke Akehurst
Only Reform voters can save Labour
A progressive coalition simply doesn't have the vote share
www.newstatesman.com
January 9, 2026 at 5:51 PM
Well you're kinda screwed then
🇬🇧 | Projected result of this week's @yougov.co.uk poll — under PR
➡️ RFM: 26% | 174 (+78)
🟦 CON: 19% | 120 (-36)
🟥 LAB: 17% | 113 (-121)
🟧 LDM: 16% | 100 (+19)
🟩 GRN: 15% | 97 (+54)
🟨 SNP: 4% | 20 (+3)
🔲 PLC: 1% | 8 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024 [PR]
➡️ RFM: 26% | 174 (+78)
🟦 CON: 19% | 120 (-36)
🟥 LAB: 17% | 113 (-121)
🟧 LDM: 16% | 100 (+19)
🟩 GRN: 15% | 97 (+54)
🟨 SNP: 4% | 20 (+3)
🔲 PLC: 1% | 8 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024 [PR]
January 9, 2026 at 12:34 PM
🇬🇧 | Projected result of this week's @yougov.co.uk poll — under PR
➡️ RFM: 26% | 174 (+78)
🟦 CON: 19% | 120 (-36)
🟥 LAB: 17% | 113 (-121)
🟧 LDM: 16% | 100 (+19)
🟩 GRN: 15% | 97 (+54)
🟨 SNP: 4% | 20 (+3)
🔲 PLC: 1% | 8 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024 [PR]
➡️ RFM: 26% | 174 (+78)
🟦 CON: 19% | 120 (-36)
🟥 LAB: 17% | 113 (-121)
🟧 LDM: 16% | 100 (+19)
🟩 GRN: 15% | 97 (+54)
🟨 SNP: 4% | 20 (+3)
🔲 PLC: 1% | 8 (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024 [PR]
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇪🇦 Spain | Legislative Election polling averages — January 9, 2026
🟦 PP: 32.3% (-0.8)
🟥 PSOE: 27.2% (-4.5)
🟩 Vox: 18.8% (+6.4)
🟪 Sumar: 6.0% (-6.3)
🟪 Podem: 4.0% (*)
🟫 SALF: 1.7% (NEW)
|
🔲 Other: 9.9% (-0.6)
+/- vs. 2023
* contested the previous election with Sumar
🟦 PP: 32.3% (-0.8)
🟥 PSOE: 27.2% (-4.5)
🟩 Vox: 18.8% (+6.4)
🟪 Sumar: 6.0% (-6.3)
🟪 Podem: 4.0% (*)
🟫 SALF: 1.7% (NEW)
|
🔲 Other: 9.9% (-0.6)
+/- vs. 2023
* contested the previous election with Sumar
January 9, 2026 at 12:17 PM
🇪🇦 Spain | Legislative Election polling averages — January 9, 2026
🟦 PP: 32.3% (-0.8)
🟥 PSOE: 27.2% (-4.5)
🟩 Vox: 18.8% (+6.4)
🟪 Sumar: 6.0% (-6.3)
🟪 Podem: 4.0% (*)
🟫 SALF: 1.7% (NEW)
|
🔲 Other: 9.9% (-0.6)
+/- vs. 2023
* contested the previous election with Sumar
🟦 PP: 32.3% (-0.8)
🟥 PSOE: 27.2% (-4.5)
🟩 Vox: 18.8% (+6.4)
🟪 Sumar: 6.0% (-6.3)
🟪 Podem: 4.0% (*)
🟫 SALF: 1.7% (NEW)
|
🔲 Other: 9.9% (-0.6)
+/- vs. 2023
* contested the previous election with Sumar
Based on the most recent Nowcast UK projection, there's only ~30 seats where this would realistically make the difference between Lab/Lib and Reform
This also assumes a very disciplined electorate (e.g. 90% voters willing to switch)
So, for now, this is pretty meaningless
This also assumes a very disciplined electorate (e.g. 90% voters willing to switch)
So, for now, this is pretty meaningless
January 3, 2026 at 6:27 PM
Based on the most recent Nowcast UK projection, there's only ~30 seats where this would realistically make the difference between Lab/Lib and Reform
This also assumes a very disciplined electorate (e.g. 90% voters willing to switch)
So, for now, this is pretty meaningless
This also assumes a very disciplined electorate (e.g. 90% voters willing to switch)
So, for now, this is pretty meaningless
Reposted by Josh Housden
🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election polling averages — January 3, 2026
🟧 KO: 33.7% (+3.0)
🟦 PiS: 28.4% (-7.0)
⬛ Kon: 11.6% (+5.3)
🟫 KKP: 8.3% (+7.4)
🟥 Lew: 6.8% (+1.2)
—
🟪 Raz: 3.9% (+1.8)
🟩 PSL: 3.0% (-2.5)
🟨 PL50: 2.3% (-4.9)
+/- vs. 2023
🟧 KO: 33.7% (+3.0)
🟦 PiS: 28.4% (-7.0)
⬛ Kon: 11.6% (+5.3)
🟫 KKP: 8.3% (+7.4)
🟥 Lew: 6.8% (+1.2)
—
🟪 Raz: 3.9% (+1.8)
🟩 PSL: 3.0% (-2.5)
🟨 PL50: 2.3% (-4.9)
+/- vs. 2023
January 3, 2026 at 6:22 PM
🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election polling averages — January 3, 2026
🟧 KO: 33.7% (+3.0)
🟦 PiS: 28.4% (-7.0)
⬛ Kon: 11.6% (+5.3)
🟫 KKP: 8.3% (+7.4)
🟥 Lew: 6.8% (+1.2)
—
🟪 Raz: 3.9% (+1.8)
🟩 PSL: 3.0% (-2.5)
🟨 PL50: 2.3% (-4.9)
+/- vs. 2023
🟧 KO: 33.7% (+3.0)
🟦 PiS: 28.4% (-7.0)
⬛ Kon: 11.6% (+5.3)
🟫 KKP: 8.3% (+7.4)
🟥 Lew: 6.8% (+1.2)
—
🟪 Raz: 3.9% (+1.8)
🟩 PSL: 3.0% (-2.5)
🟨 PL50: 2.3% (-4.9)
+/- vs. 2023
As the year ends, a reminder that an election held today (with similarly low turnout) would be the worst result for Britain's two major parties since 1918
How do you reverse this?
How do you reverse this?
December 31, 2025 at 5:58 PM
As the year ends, a reminder that an election held today (with similarly low turnout) would be the worst result for Britain's two major parties since 1918
How do you reverse this?
How do you reverse this?
Reposted by Josh Housden
Amongst a dislikable field Starmer & Reeves still stand out www.ft.com/content/1995...
December 31, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Amongst a dislikable field Starmer & Reeves still stand out www.ft.com/content/1995...
Some maps people took the most interest in this year @nowcast-eu.bsky.social
December 31, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Some maps people took the most interest in this year @nowcast-eu.bsky.social
🇬🇧 | A year of HoC seat projections
➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats)
2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader
➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats)
2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader
December 30, 2025 at 6:03 PM
🇬🇧 | A year of HoC seat projections
➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats)
2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader
➡️ Reform majority for ~5 months, peaking in October (351 seats)
2025 ends with no clear 2nd place leader