Joost van Spanje
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joostvanspanje.bsky.social
Joost van Spanje
@joostvanspanje.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science, RH University of London

elections | new parties | cordons sanitaires | hate speech | militant democracy | political communication

Bitcoin and politics, media & public opinion

ERC Consolidator Grant | NWO Veni & Vidi
Pinned
The Green Deal is incomplete.

The analogy is the US New Deal.

But that deal addressed economic worries that everyone shared.

Today's EU sees the higher educated worry about climate change while others worry about immigration.

The deal addresses only the former.

We need a Green-Immigration Deal.
Danish, German and British Labour have repositioned on immigration.

There are 2 possibilities.

Either these politicians are wrong.

If so, they'll be defeated and replaced.

Or some of my colleagues are wrong.

This is a bold call, distilling "the right lesson" from only few studies and elections.
November 25, 2025 at 7:52 AM
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl:

On 27 March, a British man overpowered a man on Dam Square, who had stabbed 5 passersby.

Yesterday, the Londoner made a one-time appearance.

He asks that his last name be withheld.

"I'm not on social media either. I don't care for all that attention-seeking."
November 23, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Good morning!
November 20, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl, @diederiksamsom.bsky.social:

"Europe has every opportunity to become a prosperous global leader in sustainability
(..)
a revolution greater than the invention of the wheel
(..)
What's happening in China with the growth of wind, solar and electrolysis is insane."
November 18, 2025 at 10:58 AM
The Green Deal is incomplete.

The analogy is the US New Deal.

But that deal addressed economic worries that everyone shared.

Today's EU sees the higher educated worry about climate change while others worry about immigration.

The deal addresses only the former.

We need a Green-Immigration Deal.
November 17, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Reposted by Joost van Spanje
(1/10) 🚨Preprint alert!🚨

In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.

doi.org/10.31234/osf...
OSF
doi.org
November 16, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl:

How the police handle personal data may not comply with legal requirements.

In the case of a climate activist, the police requested data 350 times, including about his parents and children.

The activist filed a complaint.

But the police refused to process it.
November 12, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Today in Dutch newspaper @nrc.nl:

"Minister Paul (VVD) decided well before the elections to not implement rules to protect migrant workers, but only announced it after election day.

Because Paul's decision had not yet been announced, no one could question her party leader about it in the debates."
November 9, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Many high-educated citizens worry about climate change.

Many others worry about migration.

But Dutch governments subsidised polluters.

And defended the interests of companies that exploit migrant workers - and donate to parties.

The result?

Radicalisation on both ends.

Jetten-I must do better.
November 8, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Wie splitst zich het eerst af van de VVD?
November 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Reposted by Joost van Spanje
We have just published the call for the Nuffield Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Politics. These are 3-year fully-funded postdocs that will allow you to focus on your research in a great academic environment. (And with excellent food)

www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Politics - Nuffield College Oxford University
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl, by @toineheijmans.bsky.social:

"death march from Eritrea
(..)
torture, rape, locked up with 1,000 others, forced to call family to extort more money while beaten so they hear the screams at home
(..)
The number of Eritreans seeking asylum doubled this year."
November 6, 2025 at 9:26 AM
This week in Dutch newspaper @nrc.nl:

Contrary to what she said, VVD minister Paul maintained a migrant workers housing scheme without asking stakeholder advice.
"Abolishing it would make them less dependent on employers, as losing their job would not mean losing home."

www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...
Minister Paul besloot eigenhandig plan in te trekken dat arbeidsmigranten moest beschermen
Arbeidsmigranten: Vakbonden, de uitzendbranche en SER-voorzitter Kim Putters zeggen niet met minister Mariëlle Paul van Sociale Zaken (VVD) te hebben gesproken over intrekking van een zorgvuldig voorb...
www.nrc.nl
November 5, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl:

The murder of a lawyer in 2019 made judges sentence Dutch citizens of Moroccan descent 71% harsher on average in the weeks after.

The researchers who discovered it call it a salience effect - judges paying more attention to particular traits that a suspect has.
November 4, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Reposted by Joost van Spanje
There are three things everyone should know about youth and far-right voting:

1: There is (averaged all European countries) no correlation between being young and voting for the far right.
@ipsosnl.bsky.social published an age breakdown of the results of the election polls regarding tomorrow's Dutch elections.

Young Dutch voters are leaning more towards the centre-left (D66, PvdA-GL, PvdD, Volt), and are less likely to vote for both the far-right and the center-right.
October 28, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl:

"Almost 1,000,000 labor migrants in the country
(..)
a third of employers does not comply with housing regulations
(..)
80% of employees in greenhouses and meat packing are labor migrants
(..)
85% of the greenhouse produce and 75% of the meat is for export."
November 1, 2025 at 12:07 PM
In @volkskrant.nl vandaag terechte zorg bij @kustaw.bsky.social over autoritair rechts.

Hij is pessimistisch: "migratie moet worden teruggebracht" maar hij ziet geen beleid dat GL, VVD & PVV omarmen.

Ik zeg: zelfs GL-PvdA stelt een max voor - en midden & rechts zijn het redelijk eens op migratie.
November 1, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Narrator: 34 haalde hij dan ook niet.

En in een interview in Knack betwijfelde ik op 16 oktober of Wilders 30 zetels zou halen.

Geen sluitend bewijs voor een effect van isoleren en imiteren, wel weer een aanwijzing.
Wilders, reus op lemen voeten.

Door het effect van imiteren & isoleren verliest hij.

VVD, JA21, FvD & BBB bieden de kiezer grosso modo dezelfde migratierestricties.

Tegelijk wijst iedereen erop dat Wilders buitenspel staat.

In de laatste peiling staat hij op 34, lijkt me sterk dat hij dat haalt.
October 31, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Yesterday, Rob Jetten received many votes from citizens critical of current immigration policy.

Not surprising, given his right turn last June.

As the likely next PM, he must somehow address the problems these citizens see.

Otherwise he'll be replaced by the next politician who promises to do so.
October 30, 2025 at 10:36 PM
So how did Geert Wilders do in Amsterdam?

As usual, the PVV underperformed.

However, the growing gap has ceased to widen.

gen. election 2006:
4% in Amsterdam versus 5.9% countrywide

2010:
9 v 15.4%

2012:
6% v 10.1%

2017:
7 v 13.1%

2021:
5 v 10.8%

2023:
9.6 v 23.6%

2025 (prelim):
6.9 v 16.7%
October 30, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Seen this before.

Geert Wilders isolated again.

A rival, JA21, has gained a foothold.

More econ right profile, but similarly tough on migration.

In 2017-18, PVV voters massively went to FvD.

In 2022-23, PVV lost many votes to BBB.

Will many more switch to JA21 now?

sargasso.nl/geerts-achil...
Geerts achilleshiel: isolement electoraal risico voor PVV - Sargasso
De geïsoleerde positie van de PVV maakt deze partij kwetsbaar zodra een geloofwaardig alternatief zich aandient.
sargasso.nl
October 30, 2025 at 9:21 AM
Likely next Dutch PM Jetten shares commonalities with French President Macron in 2017.

Young, from a progressive party and having unexpectedly risen to power, he will have to cooperate with the right, fighting off left and far right blocs.

Just as Macron, he may have to take a right turn to do so.
October 29, 2025 at 10:20 PM
@peilingwijzer.bsky.social negeert peilingen van De Hond, want hij geeft geen openheid van zaken.

@hendrikotten3.bsky.social zegt dat hij De Hond in 2019 betaalde voor gunsten.

@bartvanhorck.bsky.social zag een sturende vraag in de slotpeiling.

De Hond heeft nu VVD opeens hoger.

Roept vragen op.
October 29, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Toen Van Hijum vorige week bij #PauwenDeWit mocht aanschuiven kreeg hij alleen maar vragen over peilingen.

En 'n lullig clipje bij Marcel & Gijs.

Niks over inhoud.

Vanavond is hij er weer.

Zelfde vragen:
"Laatste debat?"
"NSC op 1 zetel?"
"Omtzigt nauwelijks aan uw zijde?"

Zelfde clipje.

Sneu.
October 28, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Terecht dat Pechtold een pluim uitdeelt aan Jimmy Dijk.

Hij viel op door puntige formuleringen en bracht zijn standpunten knap naar voren.
October 28, 2025 at 9:50 PM