at seven it’s marginal

some people thought RFK Jr. would be a better president than either Joe Biden or Donald Trump and I disagree but that’s a matter of taste. Lizza’s saying that not only did Nuzzi believe RFK Jr. would *actually become* president, but that she could help him do it. no.

old twitter helped users make these decisions by differentiating bigger accounts with external signals of credibility via a blue che…ah dangit

for example, the polls consistently over-index on win/loss rather than point differential relative to expectations. lower-ranked teams are penalized for narrow losses that still exceed expectations; higher-ranked teams are rewarded for narrow wins that don't meet expectations. that's interesting!

our book club read the first Dungeon Crawler Carl a couple months ago and now I’m on book six

if "orthodoxy" means "the received wisdom of the institution" that's good if you trust the institution and bad if you don't

if they haven't already, someone in sociology should do a study that tracks the embedding location of the word "orthodox" or "orthodoxy" over time. would bet it tracks measures of institutional trust.

that's why you should do it!

increasingly coming around to this view. it’s not like you get evaluated on a rubric in the kinds of white collar jobs we’re supposedly training these students for

we used LLMs to help augment/interpret dimensions we inferred using an in-sample method www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

also some stuff out there using pairwise comparisons papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

but this is still very new/cool